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National Security Decision Making Structure

National Security Decision Making Structure. Pre-1947 Structure. National Security Act of 1947. Department of Defense US Air Force Joint Chiefs of Staff Central Intelligence Agency National Security Council. State Department (1789 – no change). State Dept home page Organization

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National Security Decision Making Structure

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  1. National Security Decision Making Structure

  2. Pre-1947 Structure

  3. National Security Act of 1947 • Department of Defense • US Air Force • Joint Chiefs of Staff • Central Intelligence Agency • National Security Council

  4. State Department (1789 – no change) State Dept home page Organization Embassies Careers Nations (includes background notes)

  5. Cabinet-Style Government(standard organizational structure)

  6. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/rls/dos/99494.htm

  7. Career vs. AppointeeBasic Management Dilemma Transition 2016-17 Career OBAMA TRUMP

  8. Department of Defense (1947) The Pentagon

  9. http://odam.defense.gov/omp/Functions/Organizational_Portfolios/Organization_and_Functions_Guidebook.htmlhttp://odam.defense.gov/omp/Functions/Organizational_Portfolios/Organization_and_Functions_Guidebook.html

  10. Civilian Control of the Military Chain of Command President SecDef Combatant Commander

  11. Combatant Commands Geographic Functional Cyber Command Special Operations Command Strategic Command Transportation Command • Africa Command • Central Command • European Command • Indo-Pacific Command • Northern Command • Southern Command

  12. Unified Command PlanArea of Responsibility for Each Combatant Command Note: Pacific Command is now Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM)

  13. DoD Structure DoD Organization The Department of Defense The Office of the Secretary of Defense Joint Chiefs of Staff JCS Structure United States Army United States Navy Navy Structure United States Marine Corps United States Air Force Unified Command Plan CRS Report on Unified Command Plan Defense Intelligence Agency National Security Agency (NSA) Defense Science Board publications

  14. Joint Chiefs of Staff Joint Staff (Purple Suited)

  15. Goldwater-Nichols Act (1986) Joint Staff

  16. Central Intelligence Agency(1947)

  17. Intelligence Failures 1998-2003 Intelligence Reform and Terrorist Prevention Act of 2004

  18. DNI Mission Centers • Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center (CTIIC) • National Counterproliferation Center (NCPC) • National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) • National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC)

  19. Intelligence Community

  20. Intelligence Community Links Director of National Intelligence (2005) ODNI Structure DNI National Intelligence Strategy (2005) DNI National Intelligence Strategy (2019) National Intelligence Council Global Trends Reports Select Publications National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB) Central Intelligence Agency (1947) World Factbook CIA list of World Leaders CIA-sponsored page of links on intelligence issues Freedom of Information Act details for CIA documents

  21. Department of Homeland Security2003 • Secretary of Homeland Security • Structure

  22. Congressional Oversight House Armed Services Committee House Committee on Foreign Affairs House Select Committee on Homeland Security House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Senate Committee on Armed Services Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Government Accountability Office (GAO) CRS Reports through the Federation of American Scientists

  23. Decision Making Goal: Coordination among agencies/departments Not so easy….

  24. Models of Decision Making • Analytical Model (Rational Actor; Rational Choice) • Organizational Process Model • Bureaucratic Politics Model • Presidential Management Model

  25. 1. Analytical Model (Rational Actor: Rational Choice) Cost Benefit Analysis

  26. 2. Organizational Process Model Solution to foreign crisis? State: Negotiate Treasury: Sanctions Commerce: Trade DNI: Need better intelligence CIA: Covert Operations Defense: Use force Army: Ground troops Navy: Carrier air power Marines: Amphibious landing Air Force: Bombing State Defense

  27. 3. Bureaucratic Politics Model

  28. 4. Presidential Management Model What Structures, if any, are used in decision making? Who is actually making the decision? Who does the president trust the most?

  29. National Security Council, 1947 (Current; there have been modifications) Members of NSC President Vice President Secretary of State Secretary of Defense Secretary of Energy (added 2007) Any others the President wishes to add Advisors to NSC Chair JCS DNI

  30. Directives on Organization and Process of the National Security Council • LBJ: NSAM 341 • Nixon: NSDM 1, NSDM 2, NSDM 3 • Ford: NSDM 265 • Carter: PD 1, PD 2, PD 3 • Reagan: NSDD 1, NSDD 2 • GHW Bush: NSD 1, NSD 2 • Clinton: PPD/NSC 1, PDD/NSC 2 • GW Bush: NSPD 1 • Obama: PPD 1 • Trump: NSPM 2

  31. Evolution of NSC Staff • NSC Staff as President’s personal foreign policy staff • Professionals • National Security Adviser as the President’s number one adviser • Began with JFK

  32. Obama NSC Staff Structure • Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs • Assistant to the President and Deputy for National Security Affairs • Assistant to the President, Executive Secretary of the National Security Council and Chief of Staff • Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communication • Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communication for Strategic Planning • Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economic Affairs • Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Transnational Issues • Deputy Assistant to the President, Deputy White House Counsel, and Legal Advisor to the National Security Council • Special Assistant to the President and White House Coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Region • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Issues • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Gulf States • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for South Asia • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Defense Policy and Strategy • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for International Economics • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism and Threat Reduction • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Multilateral Affairs and Human Rights • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Development and Democracy • Special Assistant to the President and Cybersecurity Coordinator • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Intelligence Programs • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Energy and Climate Change • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Israel, Egypt, and the Levant • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for North Africa and Yemen • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for African Affairs • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Europe • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia and Central Asia

  33. Presidential Management of National Security Decisions Premises • Advisers compete • Organizations compete • $, power, turf • Presidents want to manage the process • Coordination and control • Trust • speed

  34. How President’s Manage Decision Making • Standard Model • Nixon centralization • Crash and Burn: Standard Model with Management Problems • Standard Model with Strong Management

  35. 1. Standard NSC Committee Structure(Based on Ike Model and Bush 41) NSC Staff NSC Principals Committee NSC Deputies Committee NSC Policy Coordinating Comm. (Asst. Sec) NSC Policy Coordinating Comm. (Asst. Sec) NSC Policy Coordinating Comm. (Asst. Sec) NSC Policy Coordinating Comm. (Asst. Sec)

  36. Typical NSC Meeting Attendance Statutory Members: Pres., VP, Secretaries of State, Defense, and Energy Invited based on presidential choice: Attorney General, Secretaries of Treasury, and Homeland Security, Asst. to the Pres. for National Security Affairs, Deputy Asst. to the Pres. for National Security Affairs Statutory Advisors to NSC: Chair JCS and DNI

  37. Principals Committee • Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (Chair) • Secretaries of State, Defense, Energy, Attorney General, Treasury • Deputy Assistant to the Pres. for National Security Affairs Advisors to NSC • Chair JCS • DNI

  38. Deputies Committee • Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (Chair) • Deputy Secretaries or Principal Undersecretaries of State, Defense, Energy, Attorney General, Treasury Advisors to NSC • Vice Chair JCS • Deputy DNI

  39. Assistant Secretary-Level IA GroupsBush 41/43: PCC; Clinton: IWG; Obama: IPC Middle East Policy Coordinating Committee (PCC) (an example) • Chair: Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for the Middle East (NSC Staff) • Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs • Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (NEA) • Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) • Assistant Sec of Defense for International Security Affairs • Joint Staff Representative (J-5) • Director of CIA Office for Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis • Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs • Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Global Development, Stabilization and Humanitarian Assistance (NSC Staff)

  40. IA Process Formal Paper FlowPresidential Review Memos and Directives NSC NSC PC NSC DC Departments and Agencies Departments and Agencies NSC PCC

  41. 2. Nixon-Kissinger Decision Making:Centralization (By 1970) Nixon Depts/ Agencies National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger NSC Staff Senior Review Group Vietnam Special Studies Group Washington Special Actions Group Verification Panel 40 Committee (covert ops) Defense Program Review Comm. Intelligence Comm.

  42. Why Centralize? • Speed • Reduce presidential effort in resolving debates • Inability to resolve debates -- gridlock • Learning you can’t get good advice from certain officials • Officials captured by departments; lobbying rather than advice • Leaks

  43. 3. Crash and Burn For NSC process to work, the president must make it work Nixon Carter Reagan Rogers Vance Shultz vs. vs. vs. Kissinger Brzezinski Weinberger; Iran-Contra

  44. Trump: Crashing and Burning Secretaries of State • Rex Tillerson 2/1/17----3/31/18 • Current Mike Pompeo Secretaries of Defense • James Mattis 1/20/17----12/31/18 • No current nominee (June 2019) National Security Advisors • Michael Flynn 1/20/17----3/13/17 • H. R. McMaster 2/20/17----4/9/18 • Current John Bolton Secretaries of Homeland Security • John Kelly 1/20/17----7/31/17 (to take Chief of Staff job) • Kirstjen Nielson 12/6/17----4/10/19 • Current Kevin McAleenan (acting)

  45. 4. Standard Model -- Strong ManagementGHW Bush Formal and Informal System Formal Informal Gang of Eight (Bush, Quayle, Baker, Cheney, Scowcroft, Gates, Powell, Sununu) Breakfast Group (Baker, Cheney, Scowcroft) (Role of DC as the “insulation”) NSC NSC Staff NSC PC NSC DC NSC PCC NSC PCC NSC PCC

  46. Evolution Model Standard formal interagency process President or senior adviser perceives that changes are needed in the process Admin begins debate *narrowing of participation about adjustments in the *increase in informal and decision making process ad-hoc decision making *bypassing of the formal IA process

  47. Why does the process evolve? • Pressure to speed up the pace of decision • (economy principle) • political pressure • (principle of political time) • learning about advisers and/or the strengths and weaknesses of the process • (learning principle) 

  48. Three Structures Evolve Formal Interagency Informal Confidence StructureStructureStructure President President President NSC Informal Group First-among-equals that includes the adviser President Cabinet and Sub-cabinet Informal Group Important advisers IA Committees that does not include the president

  49. Three Structures in GW Bush Formal Interagency Informal Confidence StructureStructureStructure President President President NSC Bush, Cheney, Cheney, Rice (1st) Powell, Rumsfeld, Rice (2nd) Rice, Card, Hughes, (Rove, Hughes) Rove, Hadley NSC PC, NSC DC Cheney, Powell, Rumsfeld/Gates NSC PCCs Rumsfeld, Rice lunch Hadley

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