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Executive Board Meeting 22 September 2004

Executive Board Meeting 22 September 2004. Interest and exchange rate assumptions and projections for the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) and the output gap in Inflation Report 2/04. Per cent. CPI-ATE. Krone exchange rate, I-44 (left-hand scale).

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Executive Board Meeting 22 September 2004

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  1. Executive Board Meeting 22 September 2004

  2. Interest and exchange rate assumptions and projections for the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) and the output gap in Inflation Report 2/04. Per cent CPI-ATE Krone exchange rate, I-44 (left-hand scale) Output gap Money market rate (right-hand scale) Source: Norges Bank Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  3. GDP growthGrowth in volume from previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted US UK Sweden Japan Euro area Sources: EcoWin / US Dept. of Commerce, SCB, National Statistics, EUR-OP / EUROSTAT and Norges Bank

  4. Yields on 10-year government bonds 1 Jan 04 – 20 Sep 04 Norway Germany US Since previous monetary policy meeting Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  5. PMI Manufacturing in the US1), the euro area and Sweden. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures Euro area Sweden US 1) ISM, Manufacturing Sources: EcoWin / ISM-Institute for Supply Management, NTC Research Ltd. and Swedbank / I&L

  6. Core CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area and the UK12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Aug 04 US1) Euro area US2) UK 1) CPI 2) Personal consumption expenditure deflator, excluding food and energy Source: EcoWin / National statistics

  7. Interest rate expectationsActual developments and expected key rate on 20 September UK Sweden Euro area US Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  8. Oil price Brent BlendUSD per barrel. Daily figures. Jan 02 – Jul 07 16 September 11 August Futures prices 24 June (IR 2-04) Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  9. Real oil price in 2004 USD1) and nominal oil price Deflated by US CPI. Monthly figures. Brent Blend in dollars per barrel Oil price in 2004 USD Nominal oil price 1) The nominal oil price is deflated by mean CPI in the US in the period Jan 04 – Jul 04 Sources: EcoWin / Bureau of Labor Statistics and Norges Bank

  10. CPI-ATE12-month rise. Per cent. Jul 03 – Aug 04 Projections from Inflation Report 2/04 Jun 04 – Dec 04 (broken line) Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  11. Expert projections of consumer price inflation Per cent. Quarterly figures. Q2 2002 – Q3 2004 In 5 years In 2 years Source: TNS Gallup

  12. Developments in the krone exchange rate1) (I-44) Daily figures. 1 Jan 02 – 21 Sep 04 Since previous monetary policy meeting 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

  13. Expected change in key rates according to the swap market and expected difference against the mean of trading partners’ key rates. Sep 04 – Dec 06 20 September 10 August Expected key rate Expected difference against the mean of trading partners’ key rates Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  14. GDP Mainland NorwayChange from previous quarter. Contribution to volume growth in percentage points. Seasonally adjusted *Norges Bank estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Main economic aggregates in quarterly national accounts and projections in Inflation Report 2/04 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  16. Index of commodity consumption 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume. Jan 02 – Jul 04 2004 2003 2002 Source: Statistics Norway

  17. Estimated and accrued investment costs for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport In millions of NOK 2005 2004 2003 2002 Previous year Current year Final figures Source: Statistics Norway

  18. Employment (LFS)Seasonally adjusted. In 1000s 2002 2003 2004 Source: Statistics Norway

  19. Registered unemployed and job vacancies Seasonally adjusted. Jan 98 – Aug 04 Job vacancies, trend (left-hand scale) Registered unemployed (right-hand scale) Source: The Directorate of Labour

  20. House pricesNEF/ECON (Jan 98 – Aug 04) and SN (98 Q1 – 04 Q2) Percentage rise on same period previous year SN NEF Sources: Statistics Norway (SN), Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms

  21. Commercial property pricesPrice per m2 per year in NOK. 1997 – June 2004 Oslo high standards Oslo good standards Bergen Stavanger Trondheim Sources: OPAK and Dagens Næringsliv

  22. Housing starts and other building starts. 1000 m2 per month. Trend. Jan 00 – Jun 04 Other building starts (right-hand scale) Housing starts (left-hand scale) Source: Statistics Norway

  23. Domestic debt, total and distributed between households and non-financial enterprises (C2) 12-month rise. Aug 01 - Jul 04 C2 households C2 total C2 non-financial enterprises Source: Norges Bank

  24. Prices for imported consumer goodsTotal and selected groups. 12-month rise. Per cent Household appliances Cars Imported consumer goods Audiovisual equipment Clothing and footwear Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  25. Prices for goods and services produced in Norway12-month rise. Per cent Services with wages as a dominant factor House rent Consumer goods produced in Norway Other services Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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