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Wind energy market from the perspective of a major sub-supplier

Wind energy market from the perspective of a major sub-supplier. Presented at EWEC 2009 Stefan Karlsson Global Segment Manager – Renewable Energy Marseille 2009-03-19. 1. The dynamic wind energy market. Main reasons behind massive growth in wind energy. Security of energy supply.

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Wind energy market from the perspective of a major sub-supplier

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  1. Wind energy market from the perspective of a major sub-supplier Presented at EWEC 2009 Stefan Karlsson Global Segment Manager – Renewable Energy Marseille 2009-03-19

  2. 1 • The dynamic wind energy market

  3. Main reasons behind massive growth in wind energy Security of energy supply Growth in energy demand Reduction of CO2-emission Demographic Dynamics Resource Scarcity Environmental Focus

  4. Wind energy market size almost tripled in 5 years • Key challenges on supply chain; • Speed of growth – capacity constrains • Rapid globalisation – logistic challenges • Expanding turbine sizes – new & larger components • Lack of predictive maintenance – stock management

  5. Wind industry technology challenges • Industry Key Issues • Wind gearbox technology • Pitch system technology • Testing of key-components • Offshore reliability • Cold climate applications • System for early detection of failures • Windfarm asset management • Lifetime return on investment The SKF test-rig for the large mainshaft ”Nautilus” bearing.

  6. Supply Chain Constrains - limiting market growth Source: BTM-Supply Chain Assessment, August 2008

  7. 2 • SKF, a driving force in wind energy

  8. SKF – a truly global company Established: 1907 Sales 2008: SEK 63,361 million (~6 B€) Employees: 44,799 Production sites: 110 in 28 countries SKF presence: in over 130 countries Distributors/dealers: 15,000 locations Global certificates: ISO 14001 OHSAS 18001 certification SKF group vision; ”To equip the world with SKF-knowledge”

  9. What is SKF knowledge? It is being present and active in:

  10. SKF contribution to wind turbine technology Condition Monitoring WindCon/WebCon Engineering Consultancy Services Automatic distributed lubrication system Gearbox bearings TRB/CRB/SRB/CARB/DRTRB Pitch bearings Sealing solutions Monitoring and diagnostics services Plain bearings Mainshaft bearing(s) SRB/CARB/TRB/DRTRB Mechanical repairs & refurbishment Maintenance tools and grease Mainshaft housings and locknuts Couplings Yaw bearing Generator bearings DGBB/InsoCoated/Hybrid Bolt tensioning tools Tower alignment services

  11. Market growth vs. SKF growth in wind energy Index; Year 2002=100%

  12. Capacity Development of SKF Large Size Bearings • Complete new factory built in Dalian China 2006, expanded with additional capacity/range 2009. • Complete new factory built in Ahmadabad, India will initate deliveries during 2009. • New manufacturing channel for pitch & yaw-bearings built in Avallon, France 2006. • New manufacturing channel for XXL-bearings in Göteborg, Sweden at present under construction. • Capacity expansion at Hannover plant, USA, and at Schweinfurt plant, Germany Capacity development; 2010 / 2005 +350%

  13. SKF Large Size Bearing Capacity Development • SKF develops manufacturing capacity in line with plans from our key-customers in wind energy business community. • Being a truly global company, SKF is prepared to develop manufacturing capacity in new emerging markets, when justified. • Development of new manufacturing capacity has a long leadtime; • For elimination of bottlenecks (new machinery leadtimes); 12-30 months • To build a complete new manufacturing line; 18-30 months • For a new greenfield manufacturing unit; 2-6 years (local variations) Need to focus on customer forecasts and capacity requirements 2011-2012.

  14. 3 • Predicting the future of wind….

  15. The growth has just started……….. • Ten years ago, wind energy contributed to 0,1% of the worlds total generation of electricity. • Today, wind energy contribute to 1% of global electricity. • Ten years from now, predictions estimate that wind energy will contribute to 6% of global electricity supply. • Over the last 5 years, over 30% of all new installed electricity generating capacity in EU has been in form of wind energy. • The EU-Committment of 20-2020 will require 12-15% of Europes electricity to be powered by wind by 2020.

  16. Installed MW Forecast “Exploding” China stretching supply chain further 2030 100.000 MW Most likely passed before 2020 2020 Most likely passed during 2011 2010 already passed during 2007 National targets Source: BTM report November 2008

  17. BTM-report 2004 Predicting the future of wind energy business….. Most likely Scenario ?

  18. SKF The Knowledge Engineering Company

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