1 / 45

FELIX QUI PÓTUIT RERUM COGNÓSCERE CÁUSAS (Vergílius Geórgica II, 490)

FELIX QUI PÓTUIT RERUM COGNÓSCERE CÁUSAS (Vergílius Geórgica II, 490) (Happy man who was able to find causes of the issue). CLIMATE CHANGE…. Temperature changes of the Earth in the last 450 000 years. 1.5°C/700 years !!!. ?. mean. Climate change & extremes model.

chester-lowery
Télécharger la présentation

FELIX QUI PÓTUIT RERUM COGNÓSCERE CÁUSAS (Vergílius Geórgica II, 490)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. FELIX QUI PÓTUIT RERUM COGNÓSCERE CÁUSAS (Vergílius Geórgica II, 490) (Happy man who was able to find causes of the issue)

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE…

  3. Temperature changes of the Earth in the last 450 000 years 1.5°C/700 years !!!

  4. ?

  5. mean Climate change & extremes model

  6. Climate change & extremes

  7. `

  8. Long-term climate change Real Apparent Changes in observing times Changes in averaging methods Station relocations Changes in the close vicinity of the station Directly or indirectly climatic Local Changes in vegetation, soil or drainage Re/deforestation, artificial lakes Building construction Urbanization Industrialization Other Changes in circulation Changes in planetary albedo, ice and snow Changes in atmospheric transparency (aerosols, CO2 Extraterrestrial changes (solar constant, etc.) Climatic cyclec? Other Instrumentation Shelter/screen Measuring device Change in design Change in location/height Progressive changes (e.g. Dirtying) Change in calibration due to ageing Replacement

  9. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

  10. ?

  11. CLIMATE SCENARIOS Modelling… Statistical and empirical downscalling…

  12. Scenarios… (SRES scheme)

  13. Projected global air temperature changes (surface warming) according to different emission scenarios (IPCC)

  14. winter: D J F summer: J J A Relative changes in precipitation (in %) for the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999 SRES: A1B scenario

  15. Large-scale relative changes in annual runoff (water availability in %) for the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999 SRES: A1B scenario

  16. Uncertainty …

  17. Projected global air temperature changes according to different emission scenarios (different IPCC reports)

  18. CONCLUSIONS • Climate changes are facinating issues from the scientific point of view. However, they require broad, interdisciplinary knowledge. • Climate change reveals as unusual complex problem. It also concern its climate impacts. • Due to official scientific scenarios the climate change impacts on population including the life quality and health are not too optimistic for low latitude located countries (e.g. Sahel region). Let us hope that these scenarios will be totally wrong. Scenarios are much better for Central Europe. • One should believe that human mind and activity including policy and solidarity will solve the most difficult human problems - even if the worst scenarios will happen. • In all climate change studies and research there is some percentage of uncertainty. No one with high responsibility can formulate absolute opinions as to climate future as well as impacts including human population. • Therefore the following sentence given by O. Wilde seems to be quite actual: EMS & ECAC, 10-14th September 2012, Lodz, Poland

  19. ”Man can believe the impossible, but man can never believe the improbable” (Oscar Wilde)

  20. The day after tomorrow…

  21. Bratislava, 8 November 2012

  22. Bratislava, 8 November 2012

  23. Bratislava, 8 November 2012

More Related