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Explore the collaboration between the Government of Mexico, Mexico City, and the World Bank to address climate change issues through transport initiatives. Learn about projected temperature variations and environmental impacts. Discover key interventions and support provided by the World Bank for climate resilience and emission reduction in Mexico City.
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Transporte y Clima Cooperacion entre el Gobierno de Mexico, el DF y el Banco Mundial Noviembre 29, 2006 Walter Vergara, World Bank
Variaciones en la temperatura de la superficie del planeta en el hemisferio norte Houston: We have a problem. • 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; • 2000 to 2100, SRES projections
Cambio proyectado de temperaturas para el ano 2100 (IPCC 4AR; 2007) Fuente: Borrador del Cuarto Informe IPCC
Clima peligroso • 0.6 C Blanqueo total de corales en el Caribe • 0.6 C Antarctica occidental pierde volumen de hielo • 1.0 C Retroceso catastrofico de glaciares en los Andes • 1.6 C Perdida irreversble de hielo en Groenlandia • 2-3 C Sabanizacion de la floresta amazonica • 4 C Colapso del gradiente termo-halino • Source: Exeter Conference, 2005
Se proyecta una intensificacion en la fuerza de huracanes como resultado del aumento de la temperatura de superficie del mar Fuente: Webster et al, 2006, unpublished data
Cambio relativo en escorrentias proyectado para el ano 2050 Fuente: P. C. D. Milly1, K. A. Dunne1 & A. V. Vecchia2 Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. . Nature: Nov 2005
Disminucion proyectada de lluvias para el final de siglo. Perez and Mendez, unpublished data, 2006
Emisiones globales de gases invernadero Country Total Ton/GDP Ton/cap (BTA) ton/$Mpp • USA 6.9 720 24.6 • EU-25 4.7 450 10.5 • Germany 1.0 470 12.3 • Japan 1.3 400 10.4 • China 4.9 1020 3.9 • India 1.9 770 1.9 • Mexico 0.5 590 5.2 • Brazil 0.8 680 5.0 • Argentina 0.3 660 8.1 • Total 33.6 • Source: WRI, 2006
Transporte: Participacion creciente en el problema a nivel global • Region Growth (90-02) current in CO2 share of total transp.CO2 • Europe 25 23% 18% • US & Canada 24% 39% • Japan 20% 5% • China 101% 5% • Latin America 46% 6% • Mexico 21% 2% Source: IEA, 2005
Por tanto, la reduccion de emisiones del sector es clave para enfrentar la crisis Source: T&E, 2004
La senal tecnologica A quien seguimos en terminos de: modelo de transporte urbano, tipo de vehiculos y combustibles, especificaciones y emisiones?
Transporte: elementos de la solucion • Marco (instituciones, regulaciones, incentivos, Kyoto) • Combustibles • Motores y sistemas • Cambio modal
Apoyo del Banco a Mexico en el area de Cambio Climatico • Apoyo institucional y de manejo de informacion. • IDF • Simulador de la Tierra • Analisis de impactos de huracanes • Apoyo a la aplicacion del protocolo de Kioto y programas operacionales del GEF. • Apoyo en el area de adaptacion.
Apoyo del Banco al DF en asuntos de transporte y clima • GEF: Introduction of Climate Friendly Measures in TransportGEF (OP11); US$5.8M, total funding: US$12.2M (US$1.0 M from EMBARQ) • PHRD: BRT Design • World Bank PHRD: US$1.2M • CETF: Provide external peer reviews for formulation of tools for CF and review of field test CETF: US$0.25M • Transport Corridors Project • World Bank Spanish Carbon Fund: Purchase of emission reductions
Proyecto GEF de transporte y clima (aprobado en 2002) • 1. Armonizacion de estrategias en calidad del aire, clima y transporte • 2. Apoyo al desarrollo de un marco regulatorio institucional • 3. Prueba de campo para vehiculos de alta capacidad • 4. Asistencia tecnica y entrenamiento • 5. Diseminacion
Armonizacion de politicas • First Latin American City to formulate a climate action plan, including measures that deal with: • Urban planning • Air quality • Transport • To be released at SBSTA 25 in Bonn, May 2007
Enabling environment for Corridors (removal of barriers) • Design of the institutional framework for management and operation of the corridor • Design of the business structure • Reform of local regulations • Engineering of the infrastructure • Basic design • EIA • Social assessment
Field test of advanced bus technologies • Real time measurements of environmental and financial advantages • Dynamometer and on board measurements: • Provision of CNG and low sulfur fuels • Participants: Ecomex, Allison Drives, Electra-Bus, Pemex, Volvo, Scania, MB, Faw, Ankai
… some results • Measured PM emissions from all of the natural gas fueled buses and from the natural gas, dual-fuel were extremely low • The natural gas buses exhibited the lowest NOx emissions • The series drive hybrid bus exhibited the lowest GHG emissions per passenger-km (30% lower) • CNG vehicles had lower GHG emissions than diesel • Hybrid series bus exhibited the second-lowest NOx emission
Hybrid drives (better energy efficiency, low GHG) • Parallel hybrid drive (Allison, US-Canada) • Series hybrid drive (Eletrabus, Brazil)
CNG vehicles: lower PMs, HMWHCs, NOx emissions, better GHG emissions than diesel • CNG standard (Ankai, China) • CNG articulates (Faw, China)
Mexico: Transport Corridors (Carbon finance-CDCF, for sale of CERs) • Operation of Corridors will result in GHG emission reductions; • Modal shift • Improve energy efficiency of vehicles • Lower congestion • Measuring emissions require combination of measurements and surveys • Credibility is an issue (solid statistical design) • Costs of monitoring have to be kept low
Como se reducen las emisiones de GHG en Metrobus? • by replacing old inefficient technology with modern more fuel efficient, high capacity technology • by improving the flow of vehicles along a corridor, its feeder routes or other corridors within an urban area (through a decrease in travel time for a given distance) • through modal switch from cars and small buses to mass-transit
Metrobus in operation • Besides normal operation, • it is supported through a • careful monitoring system. • ER revenues are used to • Support: • bicycle connectivity • accounting of ERs • Metrobus Master-Plan
Que sigue? • Expand BRT-Metrobus to other avenues in Mexico City (including the first hybrid-dedicated BRT, worldwide) • Support commercialization of advanced bus technologies: CNG-Hybrid • Support improvements in fuel specifications and emission standards • Continue to bring Kyoto protocol resources to support BRTs
Como puede ayudar el Banco Mundial • Mercado de reduccion de emisiones. El Banco tiene 7 fondos con un capital de Euros 1,300 millones para compra de reduccion de emisiones • Adaptacion a cambio climatico. Dos nuevos fondos para apoyar la implementacion de medidas especificas de adaptacion • Apoyo a la investigacion y conocimiento con un nuevo instrumento (CCIG) • Apoyo a la deforestacion evitada, bajo una iniciativa piloto.