Why is Nigeria a useful case study for students of AP CompGov? • British colonization left Nigeria with a political and economic legacy that is common among many formerly colonized states. • Nigeria’s socioeconomic indicators are typical of many developing countries • Nigeria has been unable to fully capitalize on its oil reserves • Nigeria has experienced military rule and coups d’etat throughout its history but currently has a democratic constitution. Nigeria has experienced alternation between authoritarian and democratic regimes • Despite its political and economic challenges, Nigeria is a leader in West Africa.
Intro to Nigeria…continued • Nigeria is the most ethnically diverse of all the countries in AP CompGov. The 3 most significant ethic groups in the political system are the: • Hausa-Fulani • Igbo • Yoruba.
Southwest AKA “The West” Yoruba 2nd largest ethnic group 40% Christian 40% Muslim 20% Yoruban Action Group (AG) Southeast AKA “The East” Igbo 3rd largest ethnic group Predominantly Christian National Convention of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) “Nigeria is not a nation. It is a mere geographical expression”Chief Obafemi Awolowo • Northwest • AKA “The North” • Hausa-Fulani • Largest ethnic group • Predominantly Muslim • Northern People’s Congress (NPC) • Three other “minority” zones exist (Northeast, Middle Belt, and the Delta) • Nigeria is comprised of 250 separate ‘nations’
The North Hausa-Fulani The West Yoruba The East Igbo
Major ethnic and religious cleavages. • Shari’a is practiced in many northern states, Christians fear that a Muslim leader would try to implement Shari’a at a national level • Fear that an Igbo-led government would lead to a lack of equitable distribution of the oil reserves of the southeastern region. • Both Shari’a law and political violence in Nigeria have both appeared as topics on the AP exam
Loyalty pyramids in Nigeria are a unique form of clientelism called prebendalism. • The constitution adopted in 1999 established a presidential system, which had led to relative stability
International organizations like the World Bank, have played an important role in Nigeria. • Nigeria is a borrower nation and adopted a structural adjustment program. • Has made it different for Nigeria to provide social services to its citizens
Nigeria’s social welfare system is weak with a high infant morality rate, low life expectancy, and a low literacy rate, among other problems.
Country Bio • Population- 151 million • Territory- 356,668 square miles • Year of Independence- 1960 • Year of current Constitution- 1999 Constitution based on the 1979 Constitution (including revisions drafted in 1995) • Head of State- President Goodluck Jonathan • Head of Government- President Goodluck Jonathan • Languages- English (official), Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, and 250 other ethnic groups • Religions- Muslim 50%, Christian 40%, indigenous beliefs 10%
Transition to Democracy • Began in 1999, hopefully with the election of Olusegun Obsanjo as president. He was reelected in 2003 • Umar Musa Yar’Adua was elected in 2007 • Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as President with Yar’Adua fell ill
Frustration with the failure of Democracy in Nigeria • Unable to harness the country’s wealth to provide basic human needs, education, potable water, reliable transportation, and communication • Power generation has fallen since 1999 • Income levels are barely 1/10 of what they are in US & Europe • HDI Activity
Roots /History • Complex systems of political institutions • Interacted in trade, cultural diffusion and wars • There was NO single Nigeria a century ago
Hausa-Fulani • City states in Northern Nigeria between 1000 and 1200 CE • Came under the influence of Islam no later than 15th century • Mosques and Koranic schools were flourishing • Non Hausa court officials were Fulani. (who were originally from W. Sudan) • Entered the Hausa lands as teachers, traders and court advisors • Fulani dominated caliphate was establish in Sokoto, Northern Nigeria and controlled it until British defeated it in 1903 • Sokoto retains its role as the Muslim religious capital of Nigeria today • Hausa and Fulani cultures are very intertwined with extensive intermarriage. Hausa is primary the language of both
Yoruba Empires (South) • Highly centralized empires and kingdoms of Oyo and Ife; the Edo kingdom of Benin in the Midwest; Igbo societies to the east; and the trading city-states of the Niger Delta
British domination: how and why? • Cause of interest was trade, slaves • Exchanged captives for goods • 20,000 people per year • 1807 British abolished the slave trade • Slave ships were replaced with Navy ships1850 • British began to interfere in politics and obtained “treaties of protection and trade • These treaties were favorable towards the British
Key events in Colonial Rule • Berlin Conference in 1884 • Divided Africa • 1886 the Royal Niger Company was granted a royal charter to control Nigeria Trade • 1900 it was replaced by the creation of the colony of Lagos and the Protectorates of Northern and Southern Nigeria
Problem with the colonial lines • In West Africa, prevailing climates and ecological zones run east to west • Colonies went from the coast, northward intersecting climate zones and guaranteeing that colonies thus established would be composed of people coming from vastly different cultures
Indirect Rule • Allowed traditional structures to persist as subordinates to the British governor and a small administrative apparatus • In the more dispersed kingdoms as among the Yoruba, colonizers either strengthen traditional chiefs or appointed warrant chiefs(who ruled by warrant of the British Crown • Weakened the previous practices of accountability and participation • British also played off ethnic and social divisions to keep Nigerians from developing organized political resistance to colonial rule. Oppressively put down any form of resistance, however, promoted democratic political system • Conflicted democratic idea: formal democratic institutions within an authoritarian culture • Colonialism strengthened the collective identities of Nigeria’s multiple ethnic groups
Chief Obafemi Awolowo, leader of the AG (Action Group) • Wrote in 1947, “Nigeria is not a nation. It is a mere geographical expression. There are no ‘Nigerians’ in the same sense as there are ‘English,’‘Welsh,’ or ‘French.’ The word ‘Nigerian’ is a mere distinctive appellation to distinguish those who live within the boundaries of Nigeria from those who do not.”
First Republic (1960-1966) • Independence in 1960 • Initially adopted the British Westminster model at the federal and regional levels, with the PM chosen by the majority party or coalition. • Northerners came to dominate the federal government because they had a greater population. • First 2 years quickly turned into a northern-only grouping when the NPC (Northern People’s Congress) achieved an outright majority in the legislature • Redistribution of Resources- North benefited less from the economic, educational, and infrastructural benefits of colonialism and set to redistribute them for their benefit
First Republic • NPC policy of “northernization” brought them into direct conflict with the south. • Coalition between NCNC and NPC fell apart because the NPC did not need it. • Nnamdi Azikiwe, NCNC (National Convention of Nigerian Citizens) coalition president (largely symbolic position at the time) • Tafawa Balewa (NPC) Prime Minister • Both approached the military and asked for their loyalty
Civil War and Military Rule • 1966-1979 • Igbo officers seized power in Jan 1966 • Yakubu Gowon, a Middle Belt Christian, came to power • Violence broke out against the Igbo because so many northern officials were killed in the coup • Ethnic violence sent many Igbos fleeing to their home region in the East • In 1967, predominately Igbo population of eastern Nigeria attempted to secede and form its own independent country named Biafra • Gowon built a military-led government of national unity in what remained of Nigeria (North and West) • 3 year war of attrition and starvation tactics, defeated Biafra in Jan. 1970 • Conflicted claimed approx. 1 million deaths
Biafra (1967-70) • Igbo secessionist state • Desired freedom because they believed the North would always dominate because of their larger numbers (Igbo are the smallest of the big-three ethnicities) • Three year civil war resulted in over a million deaths • Yakubu Gowon, a Middle-Belt Christian came to power to lead a Nigerian unity government to stop the secession
Post war • Policy of national reconciliation • Senior officers reaped the benefits of the 1973-1974 oil boom • Corruption was widespread • Gowon postponed a return to civilian rule, and was overthrown by Murtala Muhammad in 1975 • Murtala Muhammad was assassinated before he could achieve democratic transition • General Olusegun Obasanjo, Muhammad’s second-in-command and successor, peacefully ceded power to an elected cilivian government in 1979, which became known as the Second Republic. Then retires and reemerges as a civilian president in 1999
Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule 1979-1999 • 1979-1983 President was Shehu Shagari, National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Supported largely by the North. • Mistrust and corruption • Massive fraud and violent elections • The military, led by, Major General Muhammadu Buhari seized power
Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule 1979-1999 • General Buhari refused to pledge to a rapid return to democratic rule and failed to revived a plummeting economy, lost his supporters • 1985 General Ibrahim Babangida seized power • Announced a transition to democratic rule, then stalled and annulled the presidential election of June 1993, he resigned • Handpicked successor of Babangida, Ernest Shonekan, led a weak civilian caretaker government and General Sani Abacha, seized power
Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule 1979-1999 • Abacha announced a new program of transition to civilian rule and regularly delayed its steps to implementation. • Cracked down on political opposition, severely restricted civil liberties and political rights and fomented corruption on a massive scale • Abacha suddenly died and his successor General Abdulsalami Abubakar quickly established a new transition program and promptly handed power to an elected civilian government led by President Olusegun Obasanjo and the People’s Democratic Party in May 1999
Fourth Republic 1999-present • Obasanjo was called out of retirement by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) • ObasanjoYoruba • In 1979, Obasanjo handed power over as military head of state to the northerner Shehu Shagari, • Therefore, North believed that he was Yoruba candidate they could trust
Obasanjo’s Presidency • Reform the state and the economy • Retired all military officers who had held positions of political power under previous military governments • Targeted oil sector for new management and lobbied foreign governments to forgive Nigeria’s massive debts • Raised the minimum wage significantly • “truth and reconciliation” commission was set up to address past abused to the impoverished and environmentally ravaged Niger Delta Region, where oil is extracted • Civil society groups thrived on renewed political freedom • Media grew bold in exposing corrupt practices • He had political debts to his party, and his political survival required that the anticorruption campaign leave entrenched interests unscathed and corrupt politicians in place
Reelection Campaign in 2003 • Reelection nomination for the PDP through a series of political accommodations with key party barons • PDP political machine engaged in widespread electoral malpractices • Secured president’s second term and PDP dominance, however public confidence plummeted
National Political Reform Conference • Wanted to review the constitution to bolster government legitimacy • Led to an effort which in the end would fail to eliminate the 2 term limit in the constitution.
2007 Election • Plan B- massively fraudulent election • Blatant rigging and confusion to provoke the public into the streets in order to declare a state of emergency to allow President Obasanjo to stay in office • Chose a little know successor Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of Katsina state • Misjudged the people of Nigeria and Yar’Adua, the people did not erupt • Yar’Adua was elected president
Goodluck Jonathan • From the oil-rich Niger Delta • Worked cautiously to assure the Northern powerbrokers that they could work with him • Moved quickly to establish his influence by using the assistance of Nigeria’s massive state controlled oil wealth • Ran for reelection in April 2011
Yar’Adua • Lacked legitmacy in the beginning and had a difficult time getting things accomplished • Worked hard to get support of his party • “Seven Point Agenda” saw little action • Yar’Adua was dying and sent away to Saudia Arabia, No word for weeks • National assembly handed the presidency over to VP Goodluck Jonathan after 70 days of Yar’Adua’s absence
On the 2007 Election & Obasanjo’s attempt for a 3rd term: “Oh yes, they will definitely rig this election. We do not want to give Obasanjo a reason to annul the election and stay in power.”
Electoral Commission • Jonathan appointed a credible chairman • Undertook efforts to reform the deeply compromised electoral system • Could no longer buy the favor of the electoral commission at a national level • PDP shifted their rigging tactics to the state and local levels because the electoral commission had not implemented reforms here yet • Although the elections were much improved, PDP still had a majority hold over the federal House and Senate
A Nigerian pattern • Military leaders say they are preparing for a transition to democratic leadership…it never seems to happen. • Leaders who are truly interested in the transition are assassinated like Murtala Muhammed in 1976. • General Babangida announced a democratic transition and then annulled the 1993 election • General Abacha schemed to orchestrate the outcome of his announced transition in 1998 to produce his own “election” as president.
But… • General Olusegun Obasanjo peacefully ceded power to an elected civilian government in 1979 • General Abubakar delivered on his promise and handed over government to Obasanjo and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in May of 1999
Nigeria experienced its first orderly transition from one democratic government to another in 2007. Nigerian Leaders 1960-present According to post-Abacha governmental sources, some $4 billion (U.S.) in foreign assets have been traced to Abacha, his family and their representatives, $2.1 billion of which the Nigerian government tentatively came to an agreement with the Abacha family to return, with the quid pro quo being that the Abachas would be allowed to keep the rest of the money. Although this proposal caused a massive outcry at the time for seeming to reward the theft of public funds, it was subsequently rejected by the late dictator's son, who continues to maintain that all the assets in question were legitimately acquired. His death in 1998 was celebrated in the streets.
Rents • Economic gains that do not compensate those who produce them and do not contribute to productivity, typically associated with government earnings that do not get channeled back into either investments or policies that benefit the public good. Pursuit of economic rents is profit seeking that takes the form of nonproductive economic activity
Post colonial period • Centered on agricultural production • Self sufficient in food production post independence • Later in the 1960s, it shifted to the development of nonfood export crops through large-scale enterprises
3 factors that undermined the Nigerian agricultural sector • The Biafran War • Severe Drought • Development of the petroleum industry • Agricultural exports went form 80% in 1960 to 2% in 1980
Economic Decline • 1970s boom in revenues from oil Nigeria greatly increased their expenditures on education, defense, and infrastructure • Imports to support the expansion rose 7 fold between 1971-1979 • Imports of consumer goods rose dramatically (600%) • By 1978, the govt had outspent its revenues, causing external debt to skyrocket