A perspective from the CBS Technical Commission on the Status and Future of Operational Prediction

1. Organisation Météorologique MondialePour une collaboration active dans le domaine du temps, du climat et de l’eau OMM A perspective from the CBS Technical Commission on the Status and Future of Operational Prediction Bernard Strauss Chair, CBS OPAG on Data Processing and Forecasting System

2. Today’s world of operational prediction in meteorology • The WMO “Global Data Processing and Forecasting System” • Tomorrow: • towards a more efficient, better integrated and better distributed system

3. The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System • A network of operational meteorological centres throughout the world, committed to perform specific operational activities and to make other centres benefit from them as required • Weather forecasting • Including alerts and warnings of high impact weather • Long range forecasting • Contribution to climate prediction • Specialized activities

4. The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System • A results-oriented sustainable structure • provides a framework for products and services delivery according to stated requirements on operational performance (quality, reliability, timeliness, etc.) • aims at ensuring as efficient as possible a transfer from research to operations • The GDPFS contributes to: • WMO ER 1: weather forecasts and warnings • WMO ER 2: climate information and prediction • WMO ER 6: disaster risk reduction • WMO ER 7: service delivery • WMO ER 9: capacity building

5. The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System • Organization of the system • 3-level: global / regional / national • Every GDPFS centre undertakes one or several of a range of operational activities: • General purpose activities: • Global NWP • Limited area NWP • Ensemble prediction • Seasonal and climate numerical prediction

6. The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System • Specialized activities: • Climate prediction and information • Generation of long range multimodel ensemble products • Tropical cyclone forecasting • Aviation forecasting (incl. volcanic ash warning and prediction) • Marine forecasting • Response to marine environmental emergencies • Response to nuclear and non nuclear environmental emergencies - Could (or will) include as well: • Coordination of high impact weather forecasts (cf. SWFDP) • Sand and Dust Storm warning and prediction (cf. CAS XV, agenda item 6.3) • …

8. The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System • Coordination activities: • Observation monitoring • Operational EPS verification • Operational LRF verification • …

9. Seoul Washington Melbourne Tokyo Example: Standard Verification System LRF Melbourne/Montreal LCCorrelation component of the Skill Score for precipitation. Green = positive score

10. The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System • The main asset: Numerical Weather Prediction • An increasing number of centres produce sophisticated NWP output • 16 centres run global models, • 11 of these share output with 188 NMCs, • 7 provide boundary conditions to 83 NMCs running LAM - N.B.: around 30 NMCs are still not automated

11. The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System • All GDPFS Centres are supposed to comply with formally agreed criteria regarding: • Product generation • Product dissemination • Operational verification • Products and system documentation • Availability of information on status of implementation - Suitable material for training should also be made available • Mandatory requirements (minimum list of products, verification standards, etc.) and optional requirements (additional recommended products, etc.) • Criteria and centres designation approved by CBS (technical regulations => formal decision by EC or Congress)

12. The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System • In many cases GDPFS activities are developed under another programme => the GDPFS centres form the operational component of this programme • Examples: • GPCs / RCCs (soon to be part of the GFCS) • SDS-WAS • Coordination mechanism needed to define and agree on the requirements and operational criteria. Decided on a case by case basis

13. Current developments and future trends for operational prediction • Scientific advances • Technical advances • Coupling with applications • Optimum efficiency • Capacity building • Enhanced cooperation

15. A major technical advance: the WIS • Easy data « Discovery / Access / Retrieval » • from all sorts of centres • with operational reliability

16. Integrated forecast systems • Availability of affordable and powerful computer systems development of integrated, end-to-end, forecast systems (all forecast ranges) • Main functions to include: • Data QC • LAM • Post-processing (incl. donwscaling if low resolution NWP input) • Product generation (text and graphics, with or without human intervention) • Product monitoring and verification as well as • Communication / interaction with users’ systems • Support to decision making

17. Coupling with applications • From meteorological prediction to environmental prediction, and beyond • Operational models and applications will address an increasing range of meteorological and non-meteorological processes • Optimum decision making • Use probabilistic forecast information as far as possible in the decision process • Cf. Early Warning Systems

18. Optimum efficiency • Key issue: transfer of research outcomes towards operational systems • Examples: • SDS-WAS • Verification • A major challenge: from TIGGE to GIFS • … • Cf. FDPs • Ensure that operational requirements (cf. GDPFS criteria) are considered early enough during the design process

19. Optimum efficiency • Cf. the CBS Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP): • Make the best possible use of all existing products and techniques for early warning of hazardous conditions = transfer of knowledge. No innovation as such, but enhanced availability of sophisticated products and new practices for the participants

20. ECMWF UKMO NMC NCEP ACMAD NMC NMC NMC NMC Réunion RSMC Pretoria RSMC Pretoria First subproject of SWFDP

22. Strong upper level divergence will cause patches of heavy falls in places in DRC and strong winds still expected over the south-western parts of RSA. Otherwise, no severe weather is expected in the region. Degree of Confidence: good. DISCUSSION OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FROM GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CENTRES: all models more or less in agreement.

23. SWFDP • Feed-back from first subproject: high impact, low cost, visible operational results • The approach demonstrated significant benefits and improved early warnings • N.B.: low cost overall, but significant investment from leading regional centre • Next phases: expanded project in RA I, new project in RA V (RSMC Wellington) • New technical features: • Nowcasting • Use of products from TIGGE/GIFS • Development of Disaster Risk Reduction aspect (SWFDDP in RA V) • Under consideration: projects in RA II, VI, III

24. Capacity building • Vision (cf. RA I meeting, Ouagadougou, 2007): • “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warnings programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards” • The development of forecast systems could be a significant step forward in that direction (cf. EC-LX and CBS-XIV) • System configuration depending on context

25. Enhanced cooperation • “Working together in weather, climate and water” • Cf. the overall structure of the GDPFS, with distributed tasks and responsibilities around the world • The GDPFS is supposed to make products available to Members “in the most cost-effective way” • There is room for even more cooperation in the metorological world • Cooperation vs. Competition? Cooperation and healthy Competition

26. Thank you