EU Climate and Energy policy for 2030

1. EU Climate and Energy policy for 2030 Europe Inside Out – Summer course 2015 KU Leuven 29 May 2015 Jos DELBEKE Director General for Climate Action European Commission

2. "Sustainable development" * Population: today 7 billion, 9 billion by 2050 * Energy : IEA : 2030 – 40 % increase in energydemand (3/4 fossil fuels) 2050 > 1000 ppm GHG concentration * Water : OECD : 2030 – 4 bn people in water stress * Food : doubling of production in next 40 years * Cities : UN : more thanhalf population in cities 2050 : 80 % population in cities * Transport : 2050 : 3 bnvehicles (850 m today)

3. IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) • Warming of the climate systems is unequivocal and observed changes are unprecedented on scales of decades to millennia. • Human influence on the climate system is clear. • Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes to the atmosphere, land and oceans in all regions of the globe. • Limitclimate change to 2°C compared to pre-industriallevel

5. EU decouples emissions from economic growth

9. Paris Protocol: EU vision for a global deal for climate • Fair and ambitious commitment from all Parties: all G20 and other high and middle income countries • Robust commonrules for transparency and accountability: most recent emission inventories to be prepared prior to ratification • Legally binding for all Parties to the Protocol • Regularreviews to increase ambition: 5-yearly starting in 2020

10. Energy : challenges and opportunities Renewable energy Technologies are rapidly becoming competitive Ukraine crisis confirms energy security challenges for EU Shale gas Dramatic shift in US oil and gas production Drop in oil prices, short term only? Impact financial crisis Fall in private investment, tight financing conditions Fukushima Countries reassess role nuclear power production

11. 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy -20 % GreenhouseGas Emissions 20% Renewable Energy 20 % Energy Efficiency 2020  - 40 % GreenhouseGas Emissions 27 % Renewable Energy  27%*Energy Efficiency 2030 * To be reviewed by 2020, having in mind an EU level of 30%

12. European Energy Union with forward-looking climate change policy • Secure, sustainable, competitive, affordable energy in 5 dimensions: • security of supply • deeper integration of EU national energy markets • reducing EU energy demand • decarbonisation and • research and development • € 315bn Investment Package

13. EU ETS • Market stability reserve • 2030 target: -43% compared to 2005 • applicable to power sector, manufacturing industry • For industry: • carbon leakage • innovation fund • For less wealthy Member States: • modernisation fund • optional free allocation to power sector

14. Historical prices in the EU ETS Source : Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 20 April 2015

15. ETS review -1.74%/yr -2.2%/yr

16. Carbon leakage : Share of free allocation (based on carbon leakage list 2015-19) Trade > 30% only Trade > 10% & Cost> 5% Cost> 30% only Qualitative Not on list

17. Emission reductions in the non-ETS: targets and principles • 2030 target: -30% compared to 2005 • Applicable to transport, households, agriculture • Member State targets range between 0% and -40% • Target setting guided by GDP/capita, supplemented by costeffectiveness criteria. • LULUCF to be integrated

18. Renewable energyEU-binding 2030 target: at least 27%

19. Wind Solar Renewables policies contribute to reduce technology cost Challenges ahead Integration into the electricity system including intermittency investments in grids, cross-border infrastructure, need for cost-efficient support schemes

20. Energy efficiency:Indicative EU 2030 target: at least 27% of energy savings

21. CO2 from cars

22. Thank you!