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Constraints Competitiveness Tests (CCT) Results Analysis of 2010 SSWG Peak Summer Case

Presented to CMWG 1/27/2010. Constraints Competitiveness Tests (CCT) Results Analysis of 2010 SSWG Peak Summer Case. Agenda. Description of Study Method Weaknesses Results Proposal for Next Study Constants Changes Discussion of Issues Raised in Previous CMWG Discussion of CCT Test.

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Constraints Competitiveness Tests (CCT) Results Analysis of 2010 SSWG Peak Summer Case

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  1. Presented to CMWG 1/27/2010 Constraints Competitiveness Tests (CCT) Results Analysis of 2010 SSWG Peak Summer Case

  2. Agenda • Description of Study • Method • Weaknesses • Results • Proposal for Next Study • Constants • Changes • Discussion of Issues Raised in Previous CMWG • Discussion of CCT Test CCT

  3. Description of Study • Model • 2010 Steady State Working Group Peak Summer Case • Posted Dec 2009 • Constraints • Within Zone Combinations of 2010 CSCs and CREs • W-N contingencies with W-N elements • N-W contingencies with N-W elements • N-S contingencies with N-S elements • S-N contingencies with S-N elements • N-H contingencies with N-H elements • Decision Making Entity • Used the same information as previous study CCT

  4. Weaknesses of Study • Decision Making Entity information lacking • DME information was developed for 2009 SSWG case • Significant mismatch between 2009 and 2010 cases • New DME from RARF not yet complete in Registration • Scorecards go live soon. • Peak Summer Case Used • Only reflects one network condition for entire year

  5. N-H Constraints

  6. N-W Constraints

  7. W-N Constraints

  8. N-S Constraints

  9. S-N Constraints

  10. Measuring Market Concentration - HHI • Market Concentration • Is a function of the no. of firms and their respective shares of the total production in a market. Alternative terms includes Industry Concentration, or seller concentration etc. • Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) • Is calculated by summing the squares of the individual market shares (in percentage) of all the participants: • where si is the market share of firm i in the market; and N is the number of firms. CCT

  11. Measuring Market Concentration – HHI - Examples • HHI gives proportionately greater weight to the market shares of the larger firms, in accord with their relative importance in competitive interactions • HHI is a commonly used measurement. For example, the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission’s Horizontal Merger Guidelines use HHI. • Highly competitive: below 100 • Un-concentrated: between 100 to 1000 • Moderately concentrated: between 1000 and 1800 • Highly concentrated: above 1800 CCT

  12. CCT Implementation - Two Test Procedures • CCT - Test Procedure 1: • A constraint fails the competitive test if its Element Competitiveness Index (ECI) is: CCT

  13. CCT Implementation - Two Test Procedures • Test Procedure 1 • Determine if there is sufficient competition to solve the constraint on the import and export sides by performing the following steps • Determine effective capacity available to resolve the constraint on the import side • Determine effective capacity available to resolve the constraint on the export side • Determine Element Competitive Index (ECI) on the import and export sides • Determine is the constraint is competitive by comparing the calculated ECIs on import and export sides to predefined ECI thresholds • Test Procedure 2 • Determine the existence of any pivotal players CCT

  14. CCT Implementation - Two Test Procedures Generation Effective Load (max withdraw) Effective Capacity >= (Load +Limit) Entity: x, y,…, a, b,… Export Side Import Side Limit • Determine effective capacity needed on Import Side to resolve the constraint (Export Side used as Reference) • Determine ECI on Import Side of the Constraint • Determine Shift Factors, effective load & effective capacity on Export Side (Import Side used as reference); and determine the resources on Export Side that bind the constraints (XUSED). CCT

  15. CCT Implementation - Two Test Procedures Generation Effective Load Effective Capacity >= (Load -Limit) Entity: x, y,…, a, b,… Export Side Import Side Limit • Determine effective capacity needed on Import Side to resolve the constraint (Export Side used as Reference) • Determine ECI on Import Side of the Constraint • Determine Shift Factors, effective load & effective capacity on Export Side (Import Side used as reference); and determine the resources on Export Side that bind the constraints (XUSED). • Determine shift factors, effective load and effective capacity on Import Side of the constraint (Export Side used as reference); determine the resources on Import Side that relieve the constraint overload (IUSED) • Determine effective capacity needed on Export Side to resolve the constraint (Import Side used as reference) • Determine ECI on Export Side of the constraint • Determine if the constraint is non-competitive by comparing with predefined ECI thresholds CCT

  16. CCT Implementation - Two Test Procedures Generation Effective Load (max withdraw) Effective Capacity >= (Load +Limit) Entity: x, y,…, a, b,… Export Side Import Side Limit • Determine effective capacity needed on Import Side to resolve the constraint (Export Side used as Reference) • Determine ECI on Import Side of the Constraint • Determine Shift Factors, effective load & effective capacity on Export Side (Import Side used as reference) • Determine effective capacity needed on Export Side to resolve the constraint (Import Side used as reference) • Determine ECI on Export Side of the constraint • Determine shift factors, effective load and effective capacity on Import Side of the constraint (Export Side used as reference) • Determine if the constraint is non-competitive by comparing with predefined ECI thresholds • If not, determine if the constraint cannot be resolved by eliminating all available capacity on the Import side of the largest Entity, except Nuclear capacity and minimum energy of Coal and Lignite by any one entity and its affiliates during peak Load condition. • 1) Remove Largest Entity, 2) Balance System Power, 3) If load can be served • If not, then a pivotal player exists. CCT

  17. Initial Analysis Based on CSCs/CREs • Data Used – Network model same as annual (Planning Data) • The Protocol Reference 3.19 (3): • Initial analysis of the CSCs and CREs and additional proposed contingency/limiting Transmission Element pairs for possible modifications or designation to their status as a Competitive Constraint must be completed prior to the Texas Nodal Market Implementation Date and subsequent analysis shall be on-going. • Contingencies – CSC/CRE combinations for the same interface • I.e. evaluate all N-H CSC/CREs • in Base Case and • loss of one N-H CSC/CRE • Repeat for other 4 interfaces • No. of Constraints Evaluated: • (12*13 + 16*17 + 16*17 + 17*17 +17*17) = 1278 August 2009 - Slide 17 CCT

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