Vivien Foster & Cecilia Brice ñ o-Garmendia, World Bank

1. Vivien Foster & Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, World Bank

2. Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort

3. Key Message #1 ICT developments have been a major boost to African growth in last decade

4. ICT responsible for one percentage point per capita of additional growth in early 2000s

5. The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow

6. The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow Fiscal revenues generated by ICT industry (via license fees and taxes) amount to 4% of GDP on average

7. Key Message #2 The ICT revolution is Africa’s big infrastructure success story

8. Population in range of GSM signal grows tenfold in less than a decade

9. Dramatic expansion in area served though closely following population centers

10. And 180 million new subscribers added, almost all of them prepaid

11. Key Message #3 The market alone can get Africa almost all the way to universal access

12. Market could viably reach 92% population, many countries currently far off this target

13. Market could viably reach 92% population, but in many countries falls short of potential The total investment cost of closing the coverage gap for Sub-Saharan Africa would be only US$3 billion

14. Most of Africa will be covered by mobile networks

15. Key Message #4 But the reform is not yet complete and prices for mobile services remain high

16. Price of mobile services in Africa many times higher than in South Asia

17. Most African markets could support more than three mobile operators but many have less

18. Key Message #5 The fixed line segment is stagnant and relatively inefficient

19. Modest increases in fixed line subscription, market even shrinking in South Africa

20. Many fixed line incumbents remain public, with low levels of efficiency

21. Key Message #6 In many countries, the government still owns the fixed operator

22. Only one country has fully privatized its telco. Half remain fully government-owned

23. Only one country has fully privatized the incumbent,half remain fully government-owned Public ownership of operators is a drain on public finances and creates conflict of interest within government

24. Key Message #7 Broadband is the next big challenge for ICT in Africa

25. Cost of dial-up internet access prohibitively expensive by global standards

26. Broadband price gap is even greater keeping broadband penetrations rates particularly low

27. Key Message #8 Reforms are needed to allow broadband companies to compete

28. Limited capacity public internet access could be provided by market

29. Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market Total investment cost of closing coverage gap for public internet access in Sub-Saharan Africa would be only US$2 bn

30. Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market But mass-market broadband won’t be commercially viable without access to spectrum, access to infrastructure for building fiber networks and low-cost access to submarine cables

31. Key Message #9 Competitive access to submarine cables can slash cost of international communications

32. Telephone calls to US very expensive, (and intra-African calls even more so)

33. Countries with submarine access benefit, and those with competitive access even more so

34. Privately financed submarine cable networks are growing quickly Planned July 2009 Operational July 2009

35. Privately financed submarine cable networks are growing quickly Operational July 2009 Planned July 2009 Need to have competing cables and multiple landing stations to avoid monopoly control over access to the cables

36. Key Message #10 More terrestrial fiber-optic cable infrastructure will also be needed

37. 300.0 249.1 250.0 200.0 Backbone bandwidth per user (kbps) 151.2 150.0 98.1 100.0 50.0 24.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 PSTN + WLL Mobile Narrowband Broadband PSTN + WLL Narrowband Broadband Access Access Access Access Residential/ Large/Medium Small business business Evolution to fiber networks is essential for mass-market, low-cost broadband

38. Fiber networks do exist but their impact on the market has historically been limited Many of them are owned by public entities – often too expensive and poor quality

39. Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks

40. Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks Competition will drive investment into fiber on inter-city routes but not small towns and rural areas

41. Cancombine competition on profitable routes with government support for non-viable routes Multiple competing networks on corridor routes but government network is the only fiber up-country