Climatic Impacts on Industry and Commerce

1. Climatic Impacts on Industry and Commerce

2. Outline • Background • Climate factors • Industry placement • Sensitivities of industry • Impacts on production • Construction and Commerce • The emerging climate industry

3. Background • Research on climate and industry sparse • Known impacts • Industry changes do not respond to weather • Industry changes may respond to climate but at long time scales • Climate affects people, who in turn affect industry (types, location, success)

4. Placement of Industry • Emissions considerations • Inversion layers common? • Precipitation Clarksville, TN Coal Fired Plant

5. Los Angeles, CA (2007)

8. Dispersion Modeling • Determine sensitivities of an area to emissions • Determine impacts of a chemical leak or spill • Example: HYSPLIT model • Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model

9. http://www.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_info.php

10. Industry Climate Sensitivities [Table 14.2]

11. Industry Climate Sensitivities [Table 14.3]

12. Industry Climate Sensitivities • Migration of workers to better climates • Asheville? • Industry primarily vulnerable to extreme weather events • Beyond that, climate change has little direct influence on industry

13. Climate affects GDP

14. IPCC (2007)

15. Construction Considerations • Structural and architectural design • Weather affects construction times and costs • Rain delays • Examples • Recent civil suit in Bristol, VA • Tacoma Narrows Bridge (1940) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mclp9QmCGs

16. Construction Considerations • Culvert not big enough to withstand large rainfall event

18. Construction Considerations • Concrete must be set at certain temperatures • 7-day cure between 65-85°F, < 100% RH • Choice in construction site • Not too hot, not too cold, not too wet, not too dry, just right…

19. Climate and Commerce • People respond to weather and climate changes in the things they buy and do • e.g. more ice cream on hot days • Entertainment options • Ski resorts • Movies • Others?

20. Future Considerations • Ice free Arctic passage • More efficient trade • Territory disputes • More extreme events • Sea Level Rise • The new climate industry

21. An Emerging Industry? • “Green” construction • Bioenergy • Renewable Energy • Carbon trading • ~ $100 billion already (2006, Climate Change Business Journal) • 20-30% growth rate annually

22. Green Building • Buildings use 72% electricity, 38% CO2 emissions, 30% waste output in U.S. • $45 billion industry(2007)

23. Benefits of Green Building • Environmental • Improve air and water quality • Reduce waste • Conserve natural resources • Economic • Reduce operating costs • Improve employee productivity • Health • Improve air, thermal, acoustic environments • Minimize strain on local infrastructure

24. Bioenergy • Biofuels and biopower • 21.1 billion in revenues (2007, 16% growth) • Types of bioenergy • landfill gas to energy • ethanol • biomass gasification (combustion of biomass to produce CO, hydrogen, and methane) http://www.ers.usda.gov/features/bioenergy/

25. Impacts of Bioenergy Development • Food prices going up • High corn demand • Less planting areas for other crops http://www.ers.usda.gov/multimedia/EthanolMay2007/

27. Ethanol Questions • To power 1 vehicle for 1 year in U.S. on ethanol/gasoline blend** • 11 acres farmland (food for 7 people) • 131,000 BTUs to produce 1 gallon of ethanol • 77,000 BTUs energy output from 1 gallon of ethanol • Alternatives? • Brazil has sugarcane based biofuel • 1 calorie of energy produces 8.2 calories of energy ** David Pimental, Cornell University

28. Renewable Energy • Energy produced from natural resources • Solar • Wind • Tides • Geothermal • 0.8% of global energy (2006) from these sources • Biomass (13%) also renewable

29. Wind Power Industry • Growing rapidly • 45% growth in 2007 • $9 billion investment into the economy • Generate 1.5% of U.S. electricity (2008 – 5.7 million homes) http://www.awea.org/

31. http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Market_Update.pdf

32. Wind Power Potential

33. Solar Industry • 3,850,000 x 1018 J of energy absorbed by Earth’s atmosphere in 1 year • 1 hour will power everything for 1 year

34. Solar Insolation If disks were populated with solar arrays, it would power the entire earth

35. “Passive” Solar • Using sunlight without active mechanical systems • Sunlight for heat • Solar water heating • Natural ventilation • Selective shading / sun orientation

36. “Active” Solar • Use of mechanical equipment to transfer solar energy into useable means • Photovoltaic panels • Pumps, fans • Alignment of solar cells

37. The Solar Industry • 2008 – Record installations of photovoltaic (PV) installations • 5.95 gigawatts (GW) • 110% increase from 2007 • 82% of demand in Europe • $37.1 billion revenues

38. Carbon Trading – A New Market • Goal is to mitigate global carbon emissions • Bring “buyers” (industry, power plants, etc.) and “sellers” (forest landowners, agricultural land) together • Analogous to a salary cap in professional sports • Government or other entity sets the limit • Exceed the limit? Must buy credits • Below the limit? May sell credits

39. Carbon Market Critics • Does not reduce carbon emissions • Non-polluting industries just sell credits to the highest bidder • Focuses on short term carbon footprint rather than long-term strategic initiatives • Grandfathering of older industries by governments (form of immunity)