Frédéric Lebaron (UVSQ-CNRS, Laboratoire Printemps, Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye)

1. How to study institutions in times of crisis ? Methodological reflections about the EU and the Federation of Russia. Frédéric Lebaron (UVSQ-CNRS, Laboratoire Printemps, Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye) Youth Summer School on European Studies RUSSIA AND EU: MONOLOGUES IN THE ÉPOQUE OF DIALOGUES University Immanuel Kant, Kaliningrad Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

2. Plan of the presentation • 1. EU and Russian Federation: from imperial to modern relationships ? From monologues to dialogue ? • 2. The European economic governance in times of crisis • 3. Political discourses in crisis: the multiannual financial framework, a multidimensional stake in the European field of power Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

3. Introduction • How to conduct a field study ? • From research questions and hypotheses to methodological choices… and the reverse. • The construction of the research object as a guideline for field work. • A rapid presentation based on example and case-studies. • Mapping “social spaces” (institutions and actors). • Analyze discourses (content analysis, discourse analysis). Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

4. 1. EU and RF, from imperial to “modern” relationships ? • The effects of long history: nations, empires and cold war (“path dependency”) • A complex and divided collective memory • A particular context: the Ukraine crisis, the RF, the US and the EU in a complex nexus • The political and economic dynamics of the EU: which social cohesion and integration ? • EU foreign policy in times a crisis: a weakening influence for a ‘weakly integrated’ policy ? • Russian foreign policy: internal national cohesion through foreign policy in a context of threats ? Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

5. 1. EU and RF, from imperial to modern relationships ? • Studying or referring to the legal framework and the institutional settings as a more or less constraining frame and as a set of resources for actors. E.g. the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU. • Mappinginstitutions (e.g. foreign policy in the system of EU institutions). • Following political and administrative actors involved through biographical data (population, sample…) and interviews. • Selecting texts and position-takings (corpus) • Interpreting the collected materials, referring to a set of concepts and theories in various fields. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

6. 1. EU and RF, from imperial to modern relationships ? • What specificities of a field study in times of crisis ? • Moving and fuzzy realities (the events in Ukraine: facts are highly controversial, juridical interpretation remain unclear…) • Access to information restricted and controlled • Biased information may be largely diffused from the media and public actors • Difficulties (and necessity) to get to an objective and independent point of view, not a politically “neutral” one (“axiological neutrality”) Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

7. 1. EU and RF, from imperial to modern relationships ? • The output: a document which adds knowledge to the previous state of knowledge • Empirical data which allow to answer the initial research question through a rigorous methodology • Conceptual clarification • New hypotheses and insights on a particular topic Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

8. 2. The European economic governance in times of crisis FrédéricLebaron (Printemps, UVSQ-CNRS, Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye) with Didier Georgakakis (CESSP, Paris 1-CNRS) Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

9. The emergence of a meta-elite ? Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

10. Introduction • Institutions and actors of the EU in the global crisis (2007-…): an important shift in power relations. • A more fragmented EU (North / South divide), a growing political instability (European Parliament elections) • Stronger elements: European Central Bank, intergovernmental mechanisms ( Eurogroup, European Council), Commission ; • …and weaker ones: Parliament, European Court of Justice… • Urgency and institutionalisation, moves towards a stronger political and economic integration: “golden rule”, Banking Union, etc. • A paradoxical move (intergovernentalismand integration). Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

11. Research hypotheses • Stronger alliances between certain actors (individuals, institutions) in the “field of Eurocracy”. • The domination of a cohesive group of actors, illustrated -at the institutional level- by the Eurogroupand the “Troïka” (the “Frankfurt group”). • These individuals share a set of coherent and complementary assets, based on economic expertise, the close connection with global financial markets, professional trajectories related to central banks (esp. the ECB), ministries of finance (Treasuries), or IO (IMF, WB). Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

12. Data Biographical data on: • Commissioners, Directors-General and Deputy DG, MEPs (Strasbourg research group GSPE, now SAGE), currently completed for the post-crisis period • Central Bankers and economists (F.Lebaron) And… • Ministers of Finance (in progress) • “Troïka” missions members (in progress) • The members of all relevant or efficient organisation in the field A kaleidoscopic space, a “multilevel perspective” (in progress) Textual analysis Interviews Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

13. Reference Didier Georgakakis, Jay Rowell (eds), The Field of Eucrocracy. Mapping EU actors and Professionals, Palgrave McMillan, 2013. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

14. Plan • 1. The process of ascension • 1.1. Socio-economic mechanisms • 1.2. The ECB at the centre of the system ? • 1.3. The actors of the “Troïka” • 2. Institutions in transformation • 2.1. The case of the ECB • 2.2. ECB leaders in the space of central bankers • 2.3. Profiles of main actors in the field of economic governance • 2.4. Changes at the EC • Conclusion: the consequences of the process Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

15. 1. The process of ascension: socio-economic mechanisms • The “credibility” stake: in the context of financial speculation against public bonds, need for states to maintain or accumulate symbolic capitalon the financial markets. • A classical shift in favour of creditors against debtors (Germany versus southern countries, financial institutions versus states) in circumstances of financial crisis. Debt as a power relation. • Budgetary orthodoxy seen as the “only solution” to restore credibility of states (especially at the ECB and in the Treasuries). • Public debt put at the top of the agenda, especially from July 2010 onwards. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

16. 1. The process of ascension: the ECB at the centre of the system ? • The multidimensional functional ascension of the ECB: as a warden of financial stability since 2007, now as a regulator, since 2010 as an influential actor in various national contexts, including Spain and Italy. • ECB as the head of the banking system. • New non conventional instruments: Securities Market Program (2010), Outright Monetary Transactions (2012)… • It has lead to strong tensions around and inside the ECB, and in a sense to a crisis (of growth ?). • No complete stabilisation of the situation until now. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

17. 1. The processofascension: the ECB at thecentreofthesystem ? • Trichet vs Merkel on Greece and bank’s losses, in 2010-2011. • Internal divisions have come out during the Euro crisis, especially with the German central bankers (Axel Weber, Jürgen Stark) choosing the ‘exit’ after criticizing the Securities Markets Program (May 2010), against the other members. • Internal critiques still important (Jens Weidmann called “mister No”) • A 2013 negative judgment of the Constitutional Court of Karlsruhe about ‘non-conventional’ policy (esp. OMT program) may weaken the ECB (depending on the EUCJ). Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

18. 1. The process of ascension: the ECB at the centre of the system • The continuing strength of the Euro as a currency. • The ECB remains a highly independent central bank, on the basis of the Maastricht treaty, with a low democratic accountability, low transparency. • It has been able to seize the opportunity to impose political measures to governments asking for rescue during the Eurozone crisis. • It has seen its regulatory role increase much during and after the crisis. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

19. 1. The process of ascension: the actors of the “Troïka” • Data: participants to official ‘meetings’ (report at the EP) • The actors of the “Troïka”: a combination of various resources in a rather similar frame: • Economics as exclusive training discipline • US and UK-based university programs (Anglo-Saxon style, English, micro-macro-econometrics) • High academic levels (PhD or MSc) • Domination of German (+ Dutch, Danish, Hungarian…) economists, except at the IMF (India, New Zealand…). • A few have notorious experiences in private banks (2), CBs (2), MF (1) and IOs (3)… Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

20. The actors of the “Troïka” Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

21. 1. The process of ascension: the actors of the “Troïka” • In the Eurogroup, actors seem to be much more often trained in Law (Juncker, Schäuble, Lagarde…), and of course very experienced political actors (national and European political capital). • PhD economists seem to more present in crisis countries like Greece or Cyprus. • Both “groups” converged around the “Memoranda”, that is economic policy programs, strongly embedded in the neoliberal doctrine. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

22. 2. Institutions in transformation: the case of the ECB • The ECB: bigger, stronger, more and more visible and multifunctional (see Fontan, 2013) • Eurobarometers are indicators of its centrality and its crisis of legitimacy (especially in 2012). • A growing and constrained heterodoxy in the conduct of monetary policies (“non conventional” measures, “whatever it takes” discourse by M.Draghi in July 2012). Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

23. 2. Institutions in transformation: ECB leaders in the space of central bankers • Need to situate the ECB main actors (the members of the Governing Council) in the space of central bankers to understand their specificity. • Main conclusion: not much specificity, esp. when compared to FOMC members at the Fed. • Stability during the period. • The structure of the space of central bankers shows how actor’s resources are composed. • An internal heterogeneity in an apparent similar pattern. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

24. 2. Institutions in transformation: ECB leaders in the space of central bankers • Collect ‘prosopographical’ data, at various levels: individuals, organisations, countries, World regions. • Textual data is part of this data collection. • Sources: official Websites, Who’s who in Central Banking ?, etc. • The unequal visibility of central bankers is part of the functioning of the institutions, and relates to the symbolic value of currencies and countries (cv, citations and texts, English). Anglo-American norm of transparency versus bureaucratic anonymity. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

25. 2. Institutions in transformation: ECB leaders in the space of central bankers • Field: all the members of the 4 main committees from 1st January 1999 to 1st January 2011. • Active individuals : n=140 members ; ECB: 44;Fed: 42;BoJ:21;PBC:33 / 9.3% women ; 55% PhD ; 35.7% born in the 50s-60s. • Method: Specific Multiple Correspondence Analysis. • Take into account the multidimensionality and the complexity of trajectories (career patterns) and resources at stake. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

26. 2. Institutions in transformation: ECB leaders in the space of central bankers Q=10 questions and K’=29 active modalities : • 3 questions and 9 active modalities on education. Level: PhD/Master/Bachelor and Other/NA* ; First field: Economics/Law/Management/Science*/NA-Other* ; Studies abroad: No/USA/UK/Other*/NA*) • 7 questions and 20 active modalities on career patterns Main career: Central Bank/Financial administration/Other administration/Politics/University-Research/Banks-Private Finance/Other corporate ; Position in CB (2) ; Position in Finance (2); Position in Private sector (2); Position in Administration (No/National/International); Position in university (2) ; Position in political field (2). Geometric model: the distance between two individuals is defined on the basis of the convergence and divergence of their profiles. A simplified model of the trajectories. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

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28. 2. Institutions in transformation: ECB leaders in the space of central bankers • Axis 1 opposes academic legitimacy to political and bureaucratic legitimacy. Two major forms of capital in the field. • A division between theoreticians and more “practical” (political and bureaucratic) actors. • Different traditions in the training of monetary elite: the example of French “State Nobility” (“grandesécoles” vs PhD). Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

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30. 2. Institutions in transformation: ECB leaders in the space of central bankers • Axis 2 opposes an internal versus an external legitimacy, and secondly public versus private forms of professional and social capital. • The more or less close relationship with private interests, esp. banks, is a major stake in this field, with many examples of “too close” relationships, from E.Welteke (Buba) to S.Friedman (NY Fed) or T.Fukui (BoJ). • Central bank position as a sequence in a career inside the banking sector for some of the leaders (A.Weber). • At the opposite, the technocratic internal expertise. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

31. 2. Institutions in transformation: ECB leaders in the space of central bankers Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

32. 2. Institutions in transformation: ECB leaders in the space of central bankers • No strong specificity of the ECB leaders compared to other central banks (except a stronger specialisation in Law, an older age, and a bit more political capital). • No clear evolution at this level of the organisation during the period under scrutiny. • Law profiles will certainly have more importance inside the institution with the new regulatory functions of the ECB. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

33. 2. Institutions in transformation: profiles of main actors in the European field of economic governance ? • Academic profiles, with institutional connections • A general trend (rise of economics as a “strong field”) ? • Private financial profiles coming from or moving to the public sector through central banks or finance ministries. • Is this kind of profile more frequent since the crisis ? • Political profiles, with more or less “economic expertise” legitimacy, law specialisation, bureaucratic or partisan capital. • Is this type of capital more and more efficient in the political field ? Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

34. 2. Institutions in transformation: changes at the EC • The importance of economists at the Commission is not a new phenomenon. • Economists versus Law specialists: a long-term competition. • Official discourses are the indicators of a shift in priorities towards economic expertise. • Human Resources policy also shows a clear move in favour of more “economic” profiles. • The example of Olli Rehn (PhD political economy, Oxford) in the political field (Liberal): an empirical indicator of ascension. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

35. Conclusion. The consequences of the process • Rapid shift toward austerity policies in 2010 after a short keynesian moment (the “Stiglitz moment”, 2008-2009). • No inflexion of trajectory after their first economic and social results, despite numerous critiques among economists (Krugman, Stiglitz…). • Self-satisfaction remains dominant in the sub-field: “recovery”, “financial resilience”. Jean-Claude Trichet: “The euro is a great success” (one week before the European elections). • Jean-Claude Juncker as new president of the EC: a strong continuity. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

36. 3. Political discourses in crisis. The multiannual financial framework, a multidimensional stake in the European field of power Frédéric Lebaron (CURAPP/CNRS, U. Picardie J. Verne) With Philippe Bonnet (EA VAC, Paris Descartes) flebaron@yahoo.frphilippe.bonnet@parisdescartes.fr Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

37. INTRODUCTION • Economic crisis and the crisis of economic beliefs: economic and political discourses in turmoil. • Political alignment in crisis: European elections, doctrinal crises of parties… • The European case as a set of contradictions (e.g. intergovernmentalism and growing political integration, sectorial policy interests and macroeconomic dynamics, multilevel stakes) • The case of “fiscal integration”, in a context of crisis of the Eurozone. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

38. Research question and methodology • How does the crisis affect the debates around the fiscal integration in the EU (esp. Eurozone), esp. as regards the idea of a European budget ? • Position-takingsand textsas main material. • Data: small texts of position-takings (February 2013), parliamentary debates, interviews + biographical data. • Sources: Websites of the institutions, “Collection of public discourses” (in French) • Methods: qualitative discourse analysis; lexicometrics, Geometric Data Analysis. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

39. References • Bourdieu, P. (1999), Language and symbolic power, Harvard, Harvard UniversityPress. • Georgakakis, D., Rowell J. eds (2013), The field of Eurocracy. Mapping EU actors and professionals, Palgrave / McMillan. • Le Roux, B. & Rouanet, H. (2010). Multiple CorrespondenceAnalysis (QASS Series, n°163). CA:ThousandOaks, Sage. • Themmar M., Angermüller, J., Lebaron, F. (dir.), Les discours sur l’économie, Paris, PUF, « CURAPP », 2013. 39 Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

40. Plan of the chapter • 1. Economic and political discourses in Europe: a dynamics of crisis • 2. The MFF: a multidimensional, multi-sectorial and multilevel stake • 3. The space of position-takings • 4. Crisis of economic beliefs and political alignment Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

41. 1. Economic and political discourses in Europe: a dynamics of crisis • The euro crisis has led to an acceleration of political integration (esp. through surveillance and sanctions of budget deficits), but with strong resistances and tensions all over Europe. • Rise of intergovernmentalism and national interestsplay a major role. • More an more unbalanced relations between countries (North / South, Germany / France) • A global rise of “Euroscepticism” in the European arena (Ukip, Front National, AfD, 5 stelle…) Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

42. 1. Economic and political discourses in Europe: a dynamics of crisis • European public policies in the crisis: stabilities, shifts, accelerationsand contradictions • Monetary policy (ECB): unconventional policy, very low interest rates, financial stability put at the centre. Flexible attitude with the Treaty. • Budgetary policy (national governements): in a situation of tension after 2009, the “golden rule” for national budget deficits, a new regime of control, surveillance and sanction (Commission). • Budgetary policy (European level): a reduction in size for the years 2014-2020. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

43. 2. The MFF: a European budget ? • 1984: political crisis between the UK and the other member-states (“I want my money back”, M.Thatcher). A paradigm for future negotiations and crises… • 1988: Delors I pack, beginning of multi-annual programming. • Rise of the annual budget, until the 2014-2020 MFF. • Still small: 1% of EU GDP. • Co-decided between the Council and the Parliament. • Main expenses: agriculture, social cohesion, research and development. • No fiscal integration. • Usually no important public debate. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

44. 2. The MFFThe EU long-term spending plan “The multiannual financial framework (MFF) lays down the maximum annual amounts ('ceilings') which the EU may spend in different political fields ('headings') over a period of at least 5 years. The upcoming MFF covers seven years: from 2014 to 2020.  The MFF is not the budget of the EU for seven years. It provides a framework for financial programming and budgetary discipline by ensuring that EU spending is predictable and stays within the agreed limits. It also allows the EU to carry out common policies over a period that is long enough to make them effective. This long term vision is important for potential beneficiaries of EU funds, co-financing authorities as well as national treasuries. By defining in which areas the EU should invest more or less over the seven years, the MFF is an expression of political priorities as much as a budgetary planning tool. The annual budget is adopted within this framework and usually remains below the MFF expenditure ceilings in order to retain some flexibility to cope with unforeseen needs. Proposed by the European Commission, the regulation laying down the MFF must be adopted by the Council by unanimity after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

45. 2. The MFF “The MFF regulation enables the European Union to spend up to EUR 959.99 billion in commitments and EUR 908.40 billion in payments over the next seven years. This is 3.5% and 3.7% respectively less than under the MFF 2007-2013, ensuring budgetary discipline for the EU and reflecting the particular budgetary pressure that member states currently face at national level. A strong emphasis is put on expenditure aimed at boosting growth and creating jobs, in line with the political priorities of the EU: the expenditure ceiling for sub-heading 1a ("competitiveness") is increased by more than 37% compared to the current MFF. Apart from ensuring budgetary discipline for the European Union and translating political priorities into figures the MFF's aim is also to facilitate the adoption of the EU annual budget. For 2014 the new MFF has already fulfilled this purpose: on the basis of the political agreement on the MFF 2014-2020 reached in June, the Conciliation Committee. agreed on next year's budget on 12 November.” (Council of the EU, Brussels, 2 December 2013). Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

46. 2. The MFF: the 7-8 february agreement « In line with the efforts of budget consolidation of the member-states, the leaders of the EU agreed to reduce the financial resources available for the EU as regards the level of the MFF. Nevertheless, in order to favor growth and employment, funds for research, innovation and education have been increased  » (European Council, 8 February 2013). Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

47. 2. The MFF: the 7-8 february agreement In France, the official reaction (communication of the minister of foreign affairs to the MPs) was not really enthusiastic: « Taking into account the strongly constrained context in which the negotiation took place, the result must be taken with satisfaction as much as regards the interests of France as the European priorities defended by the President: support to growth, in line with the Pact for Growth and Employment adopted in June 2012 ; continuity of important European policies (common agriculture policy and cohesion policy) ; solidarity, as much inside the Union (cohesion, funds for the fight against youth unemployment, help to the poor, as much as with third-countries (European development fund) ». Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

48. 2. The MFF: a contestation « From the crisis, national leaders have finally come to the conclusion that the solution needed a weaker and less generous union. At the European Parliament, we come to the opposite conclusion. From this agreement, the Union would come out less generous, less powerful and finally less European, because it would be profoundly divided between contradictory national interests. (…) Growth and employment would be the first victims. I would recommend the Parliament to contest as much the results as the method » (Alain Lamassoure, French MEP, EPP –conservative-, President of the commission of budget). Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

49. 2.The MFF: a contestation • Alain Lamassoure was followed by the 4 major groups at the EP (during the 2009-2014 mandate), namely EPP (right-wing), S&D (social-democrats), ALDE (liberal-democrats), Greens-EFA (ecologists). • They didn’t ask for a revision of the figures, but contested the method and asked for changes in the agreement (more flexibility between different headings, an intermediary assessment, etc.). • Positions varied among the MEPs, especially as regards the notion of “austerity” applied to the new MFF. • The negotiation lasted around 4 months before an agreement. Regulation finally adopted in December 2013. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad

50. 2. The MFF • A first concrete test of the “co-decision” between the Council and the Parliament in case of an apparently strong disagreement. • Alignment and dis-alignment of the MEPs • Democracy, integration, growth and employment: a set of correlated stakes. • A case which allows to understand what the EU is about. Youth Summer School on European Studies Immanuel Kant University - Kaliningrad