Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa

1. Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa CSIR, National Botanical Institute, University of Pretoria & Kruger National Park.

2. The ‘Biodiversity sector’ Biodiversity Intrinsic value Protection Off-reserve State Private ecotourism Goods and services Tourism

3. Objectives of the Southern Africa AIACC Biodiversity study • Advance the state of the science (entails publishing papers) • Explore adaptation options • Develop tools for wider use • Raise capacity and awareness

4. Study area • Three case studies • Cape: data rich, diverse, mountains, patchy • Karoo: data poor, geology • ‘Kruger’: large mammals and birds

5. 2. North Eastern Lowveld 3 Case studies 1. Succulent Karoo 3. Cape Floral Kingdom

6. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan

7. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Current knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions

8. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models)

9. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models) Step 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)

10. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models) Step 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools) Step 5 Case studies

11. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models) Step 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools) Step 5 Case studies Step 6 Synthesis, recommendations and training

12. Current vulnerability • Identify threatened species by expert opinion (Red Data species will be included in the analysis) • Establish extent of occurrence of species • Overlay land use data to assess current vulnerability

13. Current vulnerability (continued) • Define coping ranges and threshold limits using various climatic and socio-economic variables (using basic statistical techniques, e.g. probability analysis) • Explicit identification of uncertainties • Define current biodiversity management practices and policies

14. Individuals to target (to factor climate change in) e.g: Nature Reserve Network (individuals concerned with the conservation of natural resources) Government Departments (e.g. DWAF, DEAT, NDA, DACST) Universities Private sector & Local people.

15. Future vulnerability • Projecting future climate scenarios (From Hewitson group) • Model future extent of occurrence of species (statistical techniques) • Use Multi-Agent Systems to assess species ability to relocate under future climate predictions. Includes Bayesian networks

16. Future vulnerability (continued) • Explicit identification of uncertainties… • Future climate scenarios • Predictions of species • Habitat distribution • Species ability to adapt (genetic and behavioural adaptive capacity)

17. Future vulnerability (continued) • Define coping ranges, threshold limits, and vulnerability using various future climatic and socio-economic variables (using basic statistical techniques) • Identify those species and habitats which are sensitive and non-sensitive to change. • Recommend adaptive biodiversity management practices and policies

18. Defining Adaptation Options: • Impacts of climate change and reversibility • Strategic planning • Identify adaptation options that are site-specific and vary for different scales. • Focus on adaptation options which increase coping range of spp & habitats

19. Adaptation options (costs and benefits)not mutually exclusive • Do nothing • Encourage biodiversity-friendly land use between protected areas • Facilitated dispersal • Protected area realignment • Ex-situ conservation

20. Adaptation options (continued) • Use Cost-Benefit Analysis and Multi-Criteria Analysis to examine adaptation options • How many species does each option protect? • How robust are the options to different climate and socio-economic conditions?

21. Plan of papers to be published: • Climate change impacts on biodiversity in southern Africa. • Adaptation options to climate change in the biodiversity sector in three different southern African environments • Total Economic Value of biodiversity goods and services in specific case study areas. • Integrative and comparative conclusions

22. Questions