World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

1. World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water Role of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Disaster Risk Management And Progress with WMO DRR Programme By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Division WMO www.wmo.int

2. Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Loss of life Number of events Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Economic losses 90 % of events 70 % of casualties 78 % of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

3. RA V Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Loss of life Number of events Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Economic losses 83% of events 18 % of casualties 79% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

4. Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007) Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

5. Emerging Opportunities for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services …. Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries! New paradigm in disaster risk management - Investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer …. Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005-2015 by 168 countries (Kobe, Japan) Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate information and services!

6. Shift From Post Disaster Response to Ex Ante Investments in Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (Development Issue) National to Local Levels Alignment of Multi-sectoral coordination, planning, legislation, resources Risk Assessment Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools 1 PREPAREDNESS:early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION:Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products 4 2 3 Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

7. Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise ! Hazard intensity and frequency increasing linked to climate variability and change! Vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Need for Multi-sectoral riskmanagement Energy Aral Sea Transportation Water Resource Management Intensity Strong Wind People Agriculture Urban areas Heavy rainfall / Flood Drought Heatwaves Frequency

8. Understanding the Risks is Fundamental! Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates Analysis and Tools for Emergency Management and Sectoral Planning Number of lives at risk • $ at risk • Destruction of buildings and infrastructure • Reduction in crop yields • Business interruption • Impacts: • population • agricultural land • urban grid • Infrastructure • Businesses Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping NMHS provide hazard data, statistical analysis and forecasts Need for Socio-economic impacts data

9. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services provide hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment Over 70 % of NMHS globally, are challenged in delivering these services! • Main Challenges: • Modernisation of observation networks • Data rescue • Data management systems • Maintaining standard hazard database and metadata • Hazard analysis and mapping tools • Statistical analysis • Climate modelling Source:2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

10. Many countries are still in response and relief mode! COMMUNITIES AT RISK National Government (emergency systems) Local government disasterresponse hazard warning National Technical Services Disasterresponse hazard warning Meteorological Hydrological Geological hazard warning Marine Health (etc.)…

11. Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up… While casualties related to hydro-meteorological disasters are decreasing Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

12. 2 1 3 4 Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms

13. Shift to Preparedness through Investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems ! 1 National Government DRR coordination mechanisms Local Governmentresponsible for emergency preparedness and response Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 4 warnings warnings feedback 3 4 feedback 5 5 Community Prepared 2 Coordinated National Technical Agencies and Ministries 4 Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health, Agricuture (etc.) warnings feedback 5

14. Guidelines on Institutional Coordination and Cooperation in Early Warning Systems Role of NMHS Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles Synthesis of Good Practices and Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services Cuba ropical Cyclone Early Warning System France “Vigilance System” Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness Programme Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme First EWS Publication of a series being published by WMO in cooperation with Members and international agencies.

15. Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010) Focus: Planning, legislation and Institutional partnerships and coordination at national to local levels Targeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management agencies and National Metrological and Hydrological Services, Media, other relevant ministries Training Programme: • Training on good practices and “Capacity development in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation” • Interactive session to assess national capacities, gaps, priorities • Identification of opportunities for regional cooperation • Outcomes are linked to development projects

16. Early Warning Systems need to be designed with a multi-hazard approach Consideration for: Leveraging Resources and Capacities Cost-effectiveness Inter-operability Maintenance and sustainability

17. Climate information and forecasting tools provide unprecedented opportunities to support sectoral risk assessment and management! Agricultural productivity and food security Infrastructure and Urban planning Land zoning Tourism Health epidemics Water resource management Warning systems have focused on protection of livesBUT…

18. Advancements in climate modelling and forecasting provide unprecedented opportunities for Disaster Risk Management Short to medium term weather forecasts Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Decadal climate trend analysis Climate change scenarios Next hour to 10 days Season to year Decade Long term climate change • Short-term planning • Emergency Preparedness • Medium-term operational planning • Risk assessment and management • Long-term strategic planning • Infrastructures planning, retrofitting • Land zoning • International negotiations with national policy implications Decision-making Timelines

19. Requirements of Financial Risk Transfer MarketsFor Meteorological and Climate Information Which Risks? What type of Financial tools? Who Could Benefit? Requirements for Hydro-Met Services? Financial risks CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities Other emerging products Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!) Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy) Government Companies Individuals Other WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

20. Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological information to support Financial Risk Transfer Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters Participants:(8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA) USER Perspectives: • Information requirements (data and forecasts): • Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data • Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??) • Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement) • Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts • Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy) • Technical support and Service delivery Meteorological Services Perspectives: • Need for awareness raising among Met services • Resources, ability and priorities to deliver • “Commercial” ,“Security” and “Turf” Issues associated with data accessibility http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

21. Example of Climate Information users in DRM Their needs and requirements Mechanism for coordination and user interface Global Framework for Climate ServicesUser interface in Disaster Risk Management International • Development Banks & Agencies • Humanitarian Agencies • Multinational Companies (Agriculture, energy, transport, reinsurance/finance, etc) • Global risk assessment • Global climate data and analysis • Climate outlooks • Forecast information • ISDR • UNDG • IASC • UNGPDRR • Global Reports (GAR, HDR, etc) Observations & Monitoring Climate Services Information System • Regional Development Banks • Regional Economic groupings • Regional DRM Agencies • River basin organisations • Regional risk analysis • Regional outlooks and forecasts • Regional data • Regional DRR Platform • Regional Cooperation Projects Regional Research, Modeling & Prédiction • DRM Agencies • Ministries of Agriculture, Health, Environment, Tourism, Water,etc • Cities & Local Governments • Private sector • Public • Risk assessments • national • local • sectoral • Early warnings • Outlooks • Data • National DRM coordination mechanisms / Platforms (Multi-Sectoral) • Sectors and national projects National

22. Key Messages: • Disaster Risk Management is a development issue • Capacity development of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming

23. WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to …

24. DRR Programme’s Strategic Foundation Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2015 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction

25. WMO Strategic priorities and Action Plan for Disaster Risk ReductionApproved by WMO Congress - XV To implement DRR priorities through regional and national projects, with following end results: • Modernized NMHSs and observing networks. • Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. • Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities. • Strengthened NMHSs cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. • Trainedmanagement and staff of NMHS • Enhanced ministerial and publicawareness

26. WMO DRR Strategy Key Questions: Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda?

27. WMO Country-level DRR Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) 139 countries participated Assessed Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management: • 1. National policies and legislation • 2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in monitoring, forecasting, communications • Hazard databases • Forecasting and Warning Capacities • Human resources (technical, managerial) • Operational partnerships with disaster risk management stakeholders http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

28. Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 14/19 74 % 24/52 54 % 139 /187 Countries responded 74% response rate http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

29. Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses

30. Country-Level Capacity Assessment (2006)http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html Under estimated Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

31. WMO DRR Strategy Key Questions: Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda and systematicall and sustainably develop their capacities?

32. WMO DRR Strategy: Engaging in National and Regional Development Projects with partners that influence National Programmes and Funding

33. Criteria for DRR Project Development (1) Alignment with WMO Strategic priorities in DRR (2) Built on priorities, and needs of regions and countries (3) Built on partnerships and integrated planning, budgeting, implementation (leveraging WMO and partners’ expertise and resources) (4) Result-based approach (Deliverables, timelines, evaluation) Must be scalable Plans for sustainability of capacities overtime (6) Ensure end-to-end solutions leading to better decision-making (7) Extra-Budgetary resource mobilization strategy for implementation (if needed)

34. Two Tier approach to training and capacity development 1) Develop training materials 2) Link training workshops to regional and national development projects

35. Systematically linking know-how to capacity development projects Monitoring and Evaluation of national practices Linking Training systematically with Institutional Capacities development projects National and Regional training and development Projects Identification and Documentation of latest technologies, Good Practices and learning Lessons Development of Guidelines and standards

36. WMO Guidelines and training in DRR Available for Early Warning Systems - First training materials on institutional aspects will be published in 2009(with Springer Verlag)- Joint training between NMHS and DRM Various technical training available through WMO Programmes and Commissions Standardization of Hazard data, metadata and analysis tools (Technical Commissions) Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm surges and other meteorological hazards underway through Technical Commissions Training materials for NMHS in support of financial risk transfer markets Experiences of several National Meteorological Services will be documented in 2010 in light of several pilots facilitated through World Bank, WFP and other.

37. Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO Central Asia and Caucasus South East Europe South East Asia Central America and Caribbean IGAD SADC

38. Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (Europe) DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia-Pacific) End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC) (North America & Carribeans) (South America) DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia) Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo (Africa) Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) End-to-end EWS 2010 2007 2008 2009 2011

39. Sample Projects

40. Three Components: Risk Management Capacities Hydro meteorological services Catastrophe Insurance facility and financial risk transfer South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme World Bank / ISDR / WMO / UNDP Programme – initiated in 2007 • 11 countries: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Slovenia, Turkey • Phase I: Assessments • Detailed national assessment • Funded by GFDRR

41. SEEDRMAP Phase II EC Enlargement Project • Regional Programme on Disaster Risk Reduction in SEE (EC DG Enlargement 2 M € funding) 8 Countries Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Turkey • UNDP Component 1: Building Capacity in Disaster Risk Reduction through Regional Cooperation and Collaboration in South East Europe • WMO Component 2: Regional Cooperation in South East Europe for meteorological, hydrological and climate data management and exchange to support Disaster Risk Reduction • World Bank National DRR Projects • Albania, Croatia, Moldova

42. SEEDRMAP Phase IIEC Enlargement Project • To facilitate the establishment of a Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Western Balkans and Turkey. • To support development of national platforms • To increase the availability of reliable regional level data that is crucial for Vulnerability Assessment, Disaster Planning and Early Warning. • To enhance contribution of NMHS to DRR at national and regional levels.

43. Expected Outcomes of the SEE Project WITH UNDP • National experts are trained in: • Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems • Flood hazard data, metadata and mapping tools • Drought hazard data, metadata and mapping tools • National proposals prepared for: • development of Early Warning Systems • development of risk assessment capacities • Proposal for concrete initiatives for regional cooperation in SEE region

44. Pilot Project on End-to-End Early Warning Systems for Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: Central America Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua Objectives: Development on end-to-end EWS Operationally linking NMHS capacities to support community emergency preparedness and action Development and demonstration of inter-agency Concept of Operations among national to local partners Hazards: Tropical Cyclones and Flash Floods Partners: National: NMHS, Disaster Risk Managment Agencies, Red cross International/Regional: World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, OCHA, WFP, ISDR Technical: NOAA, NASA Servir (TBC) Status: Assessments completed and Detailed proposal developed with partners and submitted for funding to GFDRR El Salvador Nicaragua Costa Rica

45. Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years: Partners National: NMHS, sectors representatives International/Regional: World Bank, Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD) Status: Project was launch on June 2009 Eritria Sudan Djibouti Ethiopia Somalia Uganda Kenya Rwanda Burundi Tanzania Climate Risk management Project in AfricaWMO/World Bank Project in AfricaFunded by GFDRR

46. Good Practices in EWSShanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (Mega City) • Governance : (mega) city-level. • Organisational: Top-down (monitoring, forecasting, warning) and bottom-up • Operational: Community-based + high tech monitoring and alerting tools Multi-Hazard Approach: Services are specialized but shared for alert dissemination and response mechanisms.

47. Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction Division Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters