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This report by Adam Sieminski, dated July 12, 2012, explores the future of oil production, particularly focusing on non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. It highlights trends indicating that non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpass nearly flat OECD liquid fuels consumption soon. The analysis includes projections of domestic U.S. liquid fuels production, imports, tight oil production, and various scenarios based on economic growth and resource recovery estimates. Key insights are drawn from the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012.
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Future Prospects for Oil Production for New America Foundation July 12, 2012| Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator
Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future total liquids consumptionmillion barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 2010 Projections History 62 Non-OECD 48 46 OECD 40% 41 Other non-OECD 35% 19% OECD Americas Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012
Non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth 2011-13 league tables Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012
Tight oil production for selected plays in March 2012 approaches 900,000 barrels per day thousand barrels of oil per day Source: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through March, 2012. Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012
Tight oil resource potential and production remain highly uncertain Tight oil production million barrels per day High TRR High EUR Reference Low EUR Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012
U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production – including biofuels – and greater efficiency petroleum U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 EUR TRR 2025 2035 Natural gas plant liquids Other non- Reference supply petroleum Net petroleum Reference supply EUR Biofuels EUR TRR imports including Domestic imports EUR 49% 36% 10% 5% Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012
U.S. dependence on imported petroleum continues to decline U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 History Projections 2005 2010 Consumption Extended Policies 14% 36% High TTR 60% 49% Net petroleum imports Domestic supply Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012
AEO2012 scenarios show wide range of outcomes • Reference case • High and low economic growth (2 cases) • High and low oil price (2) • High and low estimated ultimate recovery cases and high technically recoverable resources (3) • Integrated high and low technology (applied to demand sectors; renewable; and electric power and refinery sector fossil; and nuclear) (2) • Policy related: Extended Policy, No Sunset, No Greenhouse Gas Concern, carbon dioxide allowance fee ($15 and $25), and 5-year investment recovery with reference and with low natural gas prices (7) • Proposed light-duty vehicle CAFE standards; advanced battery technology; heavy-duty truck natural gas potential (3) Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer For more information EIA Information Center InfoCtr@eia.gov Our average response time is within three business days. (202) 586-8800 24-hour automated information line about EIA and frequently asked questions. Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012
