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对城市空间管理的需求

A synthetic view of urban development: Hot topics & Research methods 美国城市空间发展管理： 热门问题与研究方法 宋彦 美国北卡罗来纳大学城市规划系 教授 北卡罗来纳大学中国城市研究中心 主任 Email: ys@email.unc.edu. 对城市空间管理的需求. 城市热门问题 生态城市、绿色城市、健康城市、城市减排等等 如何实现这些概念？ 对城市空间的管理 形态、量、区位、转换. Market forces 市场因素. Taxation Land use regulation

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对城市空间管理的需求

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  1. A synthetic view of urban development: Hot topics & Research methods美国城市空间发展管理：热门问题与研究方法宋彦美国北卡罗来纳大学城市规划系 教授北卡罗来纳大学中国城市研究中心 主任Email: ys@email.unc.edu

  2. 对城市空间管理的需求 • 城市热门问题 • 生态城市、绿色城市、健康城市、城市减排等等 • 如何实现这些概念？ • 对城市空间的管理 • 形态、量、区位、转换

  3. Market forces 市场因素 • Taxation • Land use regulation • Infrastructure • 各种公共政策 (2) (3) Observation & Evaluation 了解城市空间 Urban Development 城市空间 (1) (4) Outcome Evaluation 城市空间管理是否达到目标 城市空间管理的范畴

  4. Part I: Measurements 城市形态、开发模式识别 • Identification of development pattern • 要求： • Policy-relevant 政策相关性 • Trend-revealing 提示趋势 • Function 提示功能 • Residents & Jobs 人口就业 • Investments 资本投入

  5. 房屋开发

  6. Internal Street Connectivity by Age of Neighborhood

  7. SFR Lot Size by Age of Neighborhood

  8. Ratio of SFR Units within ¼-Mile Network Distance of Commercial Use by Age of Neighborhood

  9. Residential Firms

  10. Part II: Causes & Management成因 与 管理控制 • Identification of development pattern • Causes & Management • Market? 市场 • Plan / Regulations? 规划、政策？ • Taxation? 税收 • Other policies?

  11. 例子：Market and Urban Expansion市场与城市扩张—土地量 • U.S. cities • Chinese cities

  12. Market and Urban Expansion • Chinese cities • U.S. cities

  13. 例子：开发区位的影响因素 1 Based on local subdivision ordinance distinction between minor and major subdivisions.

  14. SURVIVAL ANALYSIS

  15. Independent Variables and Hypothesized Effect: Hazard Models

  16. Regulations and Urban Development 法规与开发 • Land use tools / Incentives 土地利用管理 • Developers are responsive 开发商 • Businesses are responsive 企业

  17. Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance • Adequate Public Facilities • Urban Growth Boundary

  18. Impact Fees • Impact Fees: monetary charges imposed on new development to recoup or offset a proportionate share of public capital costs required to accommodate such development with necessary public facilities. (Nicholas and Nelson, 1988) • Cannot legally be used for operation, maintenance, repair, alteration or replacement of capital facilities or just added to general revenue

  19. TIF • Tax-Increment Financing (TIF) creates a redevelopment district, in which infrastructure improvements and/or project development are financed based upon the anticipated future increase in property values (the ‘increment’) and therefore, property taxes, that will result from the improvements.

  20. Inclusionary zoning Inclusionary zoning/housing encourages or requires developers of certain market rate residential developments to include within their developments or to construct offsite residential units made affordable to low and moderate income households.

  21. Regulations and Urban Development 法规与开发 • Complications - backfire • Uneven stringency may cause development to be inefficiently dispersed in the region • Market has feedbacks

  22. Tax and Urban Development税收与城市发展 • Property tax 不动产税的两种作用 • 第一步：税与城市土地集约使用 • 第二步：税在空间上的分布

  23. Tax Rates

  24. Variables • The correlation between urban scale and the population (or employment) density gradient is −0.33 (or −0.31): 大城市更分散 • The correlation between two density gradients is 0.97.

  25. Variables

  26. Results

  27. Implications • A lower tax rate in suburbs induces more outward developments and thus, a more expansive and decentralized urban area 郊区的低税率诱发分散性开发 • Urban decentralization / urban sprawl has multiple causes and solutions 诱因与解决方法 – 分享税收？

  28. Part III: Consequences 城市空间管理是否达到目标 • Housing market 房屋市场 • Travel, emissions and air quality 交通出行与空气质量 • Health implications 公众健康 • Ecological and energy impacts 生态与能源

  29. 房屋市场

  30. Travel, emissions and air quality

  31. Travel, emissions and air quality

  32. 土地开发模式与交通压力基于心理学的调适--中介作用土地开发模式与交通压力基于心理学的调适--中介作用

  33. Travel, emissions and air quality – Health implications • Next steps: Self Selection • Research Methods: Natural experiments • 下一步热门研究：应对自我选择问题

  34. Advanced Modeling Systems:城市模拟模型Linking things together… • Spatial development 城市发展模式 • Transportation 交通 • Emissions 排放 • Air quality 空气质量 • Hydrological impacts 水质量

  35. Modeling approach Run land use/transport forecasting model Estimate emissions from on-road mobile sources & rail transit vehicles Translate scenarios into land market & transportation system changes Run air quality model Exogenous Factors Population ageing IPCC’s scenarios Vehicle fleet mix Vehicle technology Identify future scenarios Develop multimodal travel models Develop firm and residential location models

  36. Study area –Charlotte 例子 • Rapid population increase • 22 % from 1990 to 2000 • Even faster land consumption • 1950: 6.98 person/acre • 2000: 3.60 person/acre

  37. Economic flows generate transportation flows Zone 256 supplies labor Zone 258 demands labor

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