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Navigating Virginia's Health Care Workforce Challenges: Demand, Supply, and Educational Gaps

The health care workforce in Virginia faces significant challenges, including a rising demand for registered nurses (RNs) amid demographic shifts and economic factors. With the need for a 60% increase in RN supply projected to meet future demand, Virginia must adapt its educational system and recruitment strategies. Key considerations include improving care coordination, embracing technology, and expanding licensure for newly trained professionals. Addressing these challenges is crucial for ensuring a well-equipped workforce that meets the needs of an evolving healthcare landscape.

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Navigating Virginia's Health Care Workforce Challenges: Demand, Supply, and Educational Gaps

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  1. The Health Care Workforce Challenge Barbara S. Brown Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association

  2. Drivers of Demand • Population: Xers 28% fewer; VA 13th • Economics: proxy education/covered • Technology

  3. PP&ACAMajor Provisions • Coverage • Delivery System • Insurance Market

  4. Key Provisions • Major coverage expansions • Virginia Medicaid enrollment to increase by 300,000 to 400,000 in 2014 • Exchanges to provide new coverage options • Insurance market – • no pre-existing; • individual mandate; • % premium for patient care

  5. Key Provisions • Delivery sys reforms - numerous pilot tests • Greater focus on care coordination, disease management • Value-based purchasing (readmissions) • ACOs • Bundling

  6. Co-evolution of delivery system & payment reforms

  7. Technologic Advances • Most common reason for being in hospital? • Three most expensive hospitalizations? • Inpatient vs. Ambulatory Surgery • Self test

  8. Better Data • Track supply: BON-48% plan to retire in 10 yrs—2003 • Demand and supply analysis—2004 • Link to econ growth: NoVAHealth Force Coalition--2005 • DHP Workforce Center --2009

  9. 2008 DHP Findings MDs: 29,500 MDs; 70% (20,650) in VA > 23% trained here 33% 55 yrs or older; 33% 45 to 54 yrs RNs: 70% work in VA; > 80% work FT supply & demand matched until health reform 20% indicate they will retire in 3-5 yrs

  10. VA. RN Supply and Demand FTE per 100,000 Population Data Source: National Center for Health Workforce Analysis, BHPr, HRSA

  11. VirginiaRN Demand by Region 2000-2020 Data Source: Virginia NDM projections, CHPRE

  12. Unfilled Demand for RNs in Adjacent States and U.S. Data Source: National Center for Health Workforce Analysis, BHPr, HRSA

  13. 2020 Virginia RN Projections … What they Mean • RN Supply will have to increase by 60% to meet needed demand • Need between 2600 and 3100 newly licensed RNs each year; Double # newly licensed by 2011 • Current drop in vacancies?

  14. Not Just Nurses • Top 5 fastest growing occupations: Med Asst, Phys. Ther. Aides; Medical Records/HI techs, Occup. Ther. Asst; Dental Assist. • Top 5 with most annual openings: • RNs, NAs, LPNs, Med. Asst, Dental Assist.

  15. Realities of Educational System • Paid for enrollment not graduates • Application process • Expansion issue re: courses & facilities • Tuition covers <50% of cost of educating a nurse • Find ways to include military with medical training • Appeal to men and minorities • Age of faculty

  16. Virginia Full Time Faculty Mean Age by Region Data Source: SCHEV Nursing Salary Study 2002

  17. Opportunity and Competition Health workforce jobs are secure; demand continues to grow Need for midlevel practitioners More emphasis on rehabilitation, coordination, data/electronics Need to shorten the timeline-start process in high school Competition for education will remain high

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