Sustainable Biomass Feedstock Assessment in the Northeast Sun Grant Region Peter Woodbury, Zia Ahmed, Christian Peters,

1. Sustainable Biomass Feedstock Assessment in the Northeast Sun Grant Region Peter Woodbury, Zia Ahmed, Christian Peters, Jenifer Wightman (Cornell University) Sun Grant / DOE Regional Feedstock Partnership Report and Planning Meeting 24 February 2010 San Antonio, TX, USA

2. We want a lot from the land – food, feed, fiber, fuel

3. National Regional State Local

4. REGIONAL SCALE Land Cover (aggregated classes) Source: National Land Cover Database

5. Land Cover by State -- NE Sun Grant Region

6. Potential New Land for Perennial Feedstocks – Start with pasture, hay and grasslands

7. Remove land with slope greater than 15%

8. Remove Federal land

9. Remove current hay and pasture area based on Census of Agriculture data. Remove fields smaller than 5 acres

10. Potentially available herbaceous land, not hay, not pasture regional map, area

11. Land could become available due to increased crop yield. Example: corn and hay in NY. Regressions performed for 35 crops for each state (2020) Hay

12. Potentially available cropland due to increased crop yield by 2020-2030 national map, area

13. OK, we’ve identified some suitable, potentially available land. How can we predict potential yields of feedstocks? Focus on perennial feedstocks (grasses and wilow) because they have reduced environmental impacts compared to annual crops. Predict potential yield under low intensity and high intensity management based on soil and climate characteristics, historical crop yield data and a limited number of yield trials. This is just a first step for strategic planning, more field research is needed!

14. Production potential depends on soil and climate NCCPI developed by USDA-NRCS, Sharon Waltman, Bob Dobos, and others

15. Predict the yield of crops and bioenergy feedstocks based on soil and climate characteristics.

16. Total potential feedstock production on herbaceous land, 2020, high intensity or low intensity

17. Total potential feedstock production on cropland, 2020 Two options: high intensity or low intensity

18. How do owners want to manage their land? Survey results from New York State 71% of owners of idle land have no plans to sell or to return the land to active agriculture. 10% of owners plan to sell their land within 10 years, and only about 10% of buyers are expected to be farmers. One-third of idle land is managed by occasional mowing, one-third has no management plan (Kay and Bills 2007). Forest -- trend is towards smaller parcels, most owners have goals other than harvest. Sources: Germain et al. 2007, Kay and Bills 2007.

19. Logging Residues (draft) NOTE: For mapping, results are normalized to the entire county area Source: ORNL & USDA Forest Service

20. Potentially available cropland due to increased crop yield by 2020-2030 national map, area

21. Production potential depends on soil and climate NCCPI developed by USDA-NRCS, Sharon Waltman, Bob Dobos, and others

22. DRAFT: Total potential feedstock production in 2020 Two options: high intensity or low intensity Doesn’t include forest land!

23. New York Sustainable Biomass Feedstock Study & Biofuels Roadmap SUNY-ESF Tim Volk, Phil Castellano, Rene Germain, Thomas Buchholz Cornell University Jeni Wightman, Zia Ahmed, Christian Peters, Jeff Melkonian, Hilary Mayton Rochester Institute of Technology James Winebrake, Erin Green, And the rest of the NYS Biofuels Roadmap team: led by ZywiaWojnar of Pace University & Corinne Rutzke of Cornell University Financial and other support: NYSERDA, NYS-DEC, and NYS Ag. & Markets

24. STATE SCALE –New York Increased milk yield per cow, Equine land use, Equine hay & straw use Feedstock production costs, Short-rotation willow, Forest thinnings & residues Greenhouse gas emissions

25. Milk yield per cow is increasing, therefore less feed and land required to produce a gallon of milk (NY).

26. Projected feedstock production & cost circa 2020-2030 (very rapid bioenergy development scenario, NY State)

27. Current production agricultural and forest production

28. Current production & potential feedstock production

29. GHG emissions from feedstock production

30. LOCAL SCALE – FIELDS AND FARMS Warm-season perennial grass field trials (Hilary Mayton and others, Cornell University)

31. Dedicated bioenergy feedstock yield trial sites

32. Three Year Old Willow Biomass Crops Volk and others, SUNY-ESF

33. The PNM dynamic simulation model with site-specific data predicts 3-year willow yield (Model -Melkonian et al. 2010, Measured – Volk et al. 2010)

34. Collaborators Bruce Dale, Greg Hanson, Satish Joshi, Hilary Mayton, Jeff Melkonian, Rich Ready, Tom Richard, Corinne Rutzke, Marianne Sarrantonio, Tim Volk, James Winebrake, ZywiaWojnar & many other researchers who have shared their hard-earned data!

35. We gratefully acknowledge the following sources of funding for our ongoing research: Sun Grant & US-DOE Feedstock Partnership Northeast Sun Grant Institute of Excellence, US Department of Transportation, NY Dept. of Environmental Conservation NY Dept. of Agriculture and Markets NYSERDA