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Proposal for a WWRP High Impact Weather Project

Proposal for a WWRP High Impact Weather Project. Sarah Jones, Brian Golding Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert, Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim Hewson, Julia Keller, Stefan Klink, Sharan Majumdar, Rebecca Morss, Pierre Pellerin,

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Proposal for a WWRP High Impact Weather Project

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  1. Proposal for a WWRP High Impact Weather Project Sarah Jones, Brian Golding Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert, Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim Hewson, Julia Keller, Stefan Klink, Sharan Majumdar, Rebecca Morss, Pierre Pellerin, David Richardson, Peter Steinle, Jenny Sun, Richard Swinbank, Zoltan Toth, Jian Jie Wang, Heini Wernli, Hui Yu THORPEX ICSC 11 15 - 17 July 2013

  2. Potential need for THORPEX Legacy project on High Impact Weather identified at ICSC10 North American Town Hall at AMS Annual Meeting (Jan 2013) International workshop to define scope & objectives (March 2013) Appointment of task team (May 2013) Task Team Telecons to agree on structure and objectives (Mid-June 2013) Draft of proposal to WMO for ICSC/JSC (July 2013) Discussion at ICSC / JSC; Agreement on way forward Revise proposal for submission to CAS in November Development of Proposal for a 5-10 year WWRP High Impact Weather Project

  3. The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to: “Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increasein resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications” Mission of Project

  4. Focus and scope of project defined by needs of a limited number of specific weather-related applications Probabilistic predictions at scales relevant to hazards: focus on small time and space scales whilst maintaining relevance of larger / longer scales Exploit opportunities from coupled high resolution models and develop new observing strategies Builds on THORPEX – what is new?

  5. Scope and limits of project defined by a limited set of weather – related applications Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental

  6. Scope of Project Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders

  7. Scope of Project Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders

  8. Scope of Project Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Research Programme

  9. Research Theme: Predictability and Processes • Improve understanding of factors determining predictability during High Impact Weather events Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental • Analysis of processes • Observations • Diagnosis of model errors InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes

  10. Research Theme: Multi-scale Prediction • Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental • Coupled Systems • Minutes to weeks • Local to Global InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts

  11. Research Theme: Vulnerability and Risk • Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental • Assess impact of hazard on individuals, communities and businesses • Learn about their vulnerability • Quantify risk arising from hazard InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk

  12. Research Theme: Evaluation • Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental • Rigorous evaluation of forecasts & warnings of hazards and their impacts • Define how to measure benefits • of research InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation

  13. Research Theme: Communication • Achieve more effective responses Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental • Improve formulation and • communication • of forecasts & warnings InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication

  14. Cross-cutting activities • Joint activities of research topics to realise benefits of the research Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication

  15. Cross-cutting activities • Applications in the forecasting process Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental • Seamless from nowcasting to short-range NWP • Automation • Interpretation • Assessment of impacts • Communication InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process

  16. Cross-cutting activities • Design of observing strategies • Opportunities from sophisticated high resolution observations • Assessment of local vs. global • Impacts and responses • Quality control Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies

  17. Cross-cutting activities • Uncertainty • Understanding • Predicting • Evaluating • Communicating Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty

  18. Cross-cutting activities • Field campaigns and demonstration projects Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental • Utilise data from previous campaigns • Exploit planned activities: • Lake Victoria RDP / FDP • T-NAWDEX • Link to TIGGE-LAM • Involve End Users InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty Field campaigns & demonstrations

  19. Cross-cutting activities • Knowledge Transfer • Between scientific disciplines • Between research and operations • Internationally Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty Field campaigns & demonstrations Knowledge Transfer

  20. Cross-cutting activities • Verification • Linking process understanding, model development, evaluation Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty Field campaigns & demonstrations Knowledge Transfer Verification

  21. Cross-cutting activities • Impact forecasting • Focussing research activities on advances needed to forecast the impacts Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty Field campaigns & demonstrations Knowledge Transfer Verification Impact Forecasting

  22. Transfer of Results • Transfer results and benefits of research back to receptors in an adequate manner Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty Field campaigns & demonstrations Knowledge Transfer Verification Impact Forecasting

  23. To-date: knowledge of user requirements present in task team During further development of implementation plan: Engage with national / international bodies that already engage with users During project: meet with end users at variety of levels to define user needs and transfer results External Engagement

  24. Engage researchers from operational and academic centres; encourage development of research proposals Develop linkages with other initiatives International bodies and activities, WWRP Working groups, national initiatives, Post-Hyogo activities on disaster risk reduction Engage communication of scientists with different backgrounds through workshops, conferences etc. Establish and exploit special research datasets Support research and demonstration projects Link to S2S and PPP Strategies to achieve goals

  25. Further develop proposal for CAS considering the following: better define the scope and focus based on a number of prototype applications that engage developing countries better describe the added value of the project compared to what will be done anyway at NMHSs further emphasize the project focus on the first few days whilst maintaining the relevance of longer time scales. recognise increasing global urbanisation, the associated vulnerabilities and importance of “urban” weather further develop the rationale/motivation for the project link to WCRP through HIW in a changing climate Link to important planned projects e.g. nocturnal convection in N. America and associated flash flooding clarify the relationships with other related WMO groups. Recommendations of ICSC-11

  26. WWRP High Impact Weather Project Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty Field campaigns & demonstrations Knowledge Transfer Verification Impact Forecasting

  27. The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to: “Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increasein resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications” Mission of Project

  28. Task Team Members Chair: Sarah Jones (DWD, Germany) WMO Consultant: Brian Golding (UKMO, UK) Philippe Arbogast (MeteoFrance, Predictability) Ana Barros (USA, Hydrology) Aida Diongue (Senegal, African Regional Committee) Beth Ebert (BoM, Australia, Verification WG) Grant Elliott (Australia, BoM, Forecaster / User Perspective) Pat Harr (Naval Postgraduate School, USA, PDP WG) Tim Hewson (UKMO, UK, Forecasting process) Julia Keller (DWD, Germany, Ensembles / TIGGE) Stefan Klink (DWD, Germany, EUMETNET ObsProgramme, Observations) Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS, University of Miami, USA, Data Assimilation) Rebecca Morss (NCAR, USA, SERA) Pierre Pellerin (Environment Canada, coupled modelling) David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE) Peter Steinle (Australia BOM, WWRP / Mesoscale WG) Jenny Sun (NCAR, WWRP/ Nowcasting WG) Richard Swinbank (UKMO, GIFS-TIGGE) Zoltan Toth (NOAA, USA, Data Assimilation / Multi-scale modelling) JianJie Wang (China, WWRP/ Nowcasting Research WG) Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich, Switzerland, PDP WG) Hui Yu (CMA/Shanghai Typhoon Center; WWRP/ Mesoscale WG) Link to CBS/SWFDP: Ken Mylne (UKMO) Links to PPP and S2S: Co-chairs of Projects

  29. Applications: SocialEconomicEnvironmental InteractionandCommunication withStakeholders Predict-ability & Processes Multi-scale Forecasts Vulner-ability & Risk Eval-uation Communication Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty Field campaigns & demonstrations Knowledge Transfer Verification Impact Forecasting

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