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Principles of Economics Macroeconomics Employment Hysteresis

Principles of Economics Macroeconomics Employment Hysteresis. J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley. How Far Are We from Potential Output/Full Employment?.

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Principles of Economics Macroeconomics Employment Hysteresis

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  1. Principles of Economics Macroeconomics Employment Hysteresis J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley

  2. How Far Are We from Potential Output/Full Employment? • Optimists think we are far from full employment because many people who would take jobs are not actively looking for them because jobs are scarce... • Pessimists think the official unemployment rate has it about right... • Austerians think we are at full employment now because of zero marginal product workers who lack skills... • I am an optimist... • I see no reason why anybody reality-based would be an austerian...

  3. Paul Krugman vs. The Austerians

  4. The Congressional Budget Office’s View

  5. Channels… • Deficient investment… • Less experimentation and innovation… • Workers lose their skills and their attachment… • All of these are extremely fuzzy… • As is the belief that half of the output gap has now shifted itself from being a demand shortfall to a reduction in potential output…

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