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Gas for Climate

Gas for Climate. the optimal role for gas in a net zero emissions EU energy system. Renewable power to fuels Portland, oregon may 20, 2019. deep decarbonization of Eu energy system needed to meet climate goals.

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Gas for Climate

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  1. Gas for Climate the optimal role for gas in a net zero emissions EU energy system Renewable power to fuels Portland, oregon may 20, 2019

  2. deep decarbonization of Eu energy system needed to meet climate goals • With the 2015 Paris Agreement,195 countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and to aim for 1.5°C • Studies show that to meet the target, we should aim for net zero carbon emissions in 2050 • This is recognized in scenarios for the recentEU Communication on the 2050 strategy • This implies that to meet the target, countries (including the EU) need to decarbonize their energy systems within 30 years

  3. Maintaining a role for gas and gas infrastructure in the 2050 energy system has important benefits • The Paris Agreement increases the sense of urgency and raises the bar on climate action • The debate on the energy transition focuses on electrification, gas seen as transition fuel • However, renewable gas and gas infrastructure have important benefits The Gas for Climate group was established to develop and communicate a vision on the benefits of using renewable gas and gas infrastructure in meeting the Paris Agreement climate change target and supporting a net zero carbon EU energy system by 2050. The group consists of 7 major gas TSOs plus two biogas associations

  4. New Gas for climate study • Current study is an update of our 2018 study with a significantly expanded scope • Purpose of the study remains the same: • A net zero emissions EU energy system by 2050 is possible and the system can become fully renewable, with a valuable role for biomethane and green hydrogen alongside renewable electricity. • Blue hydrogen is critical to achieve fast decarbonisation and kickstart the hydrogen market in coming decades • Gas infrastructure needed to scale up renewable gas to 9.6 Tcfby 2050, enabling a decarbonised and renewables-based energy system at lowest costs To assess the role and value of gas used in existing gas infrastructure in a net zero emissions EU energy system compared to a situation in which the use of gas is minimised. New Gas for Climate Study

  5. new gas for climate study analyses almost the full energy system

  6. TWO full decarbonisation energy system scenariosminimal gas scenario VS optimised gas scenario MINIMAL GAS OPTIMISED GAS Renewable and low carbon gas use is limited to industry, in cases where no reasonable alternative exists Renewable and low carbon gas are in a smart combination with renewable electricity • Heat supply by all-electric heat pumps, next to district heating • Very high insulation of new and existing buildings • Heat supply by hybrid heat pumps, next to all-electric heat pumps and district heating. Hydrogen use possible in certain geographic areas • Very high insulation of new buildings, good insulation of existing buildings INDUSTRY INFRA-STRUCTURE INFRA-STRUCTURE INDUSTRY POWER POWER TRANSPORT TRANSPORT BUILDINGS BUILDINGS • Hydrogen and some methane is used for high temperature industrial heat >300°F plus industrial feedstock • Hydrogen is produced centrally from dedicated renewable electricity and transported to industrial sites through gas grids • Hydrogen is used for high temperature industrial heat >300°F plus industrial feedstock • Hydrogen is produced at industrial sites, so no central hydrogen from dedicated renewable electricity • Bio-LNG and hydrogen used in long distance trucks, bio-LNG used in international shipping. Electricity dominates light transport • Electricity dominates light transport, biodiesel used in international shipping and long-distance truck transport • No role for gas • Solid biomass to produce dispatchable electricity in gas power plants • Very large quantities of rooftop solar-PV and offshore wind • Modest increase in hydropower • Batteries used for intraday storage • Hydrogen and biomethane to produce dispatchable electricity in gas power plants • Very large quantities of rooftop solar-PV and offshore wind • Modest increase in hydropower. Small role for solid biomass power • Batteries used for intraday storage • No role for gas infrastructure. Gas transmission infrastructure will in many cases be decommissioned • Gas grids can transport hydrogen in blends (>10%) with methane. By 2050, part of existing transmission grids will be retrofitted for dedicated hydrogen transport and part will be used to transport methane

  7. It is possible to sustainably scale-up biomethane supply at Much reduced production costs Biomethane can supply up to 3.4 quad (3.4 Tcf natural gas equivalent) at much reduced costs of $16–19/MMBtu ANAEROBIC DIGESTION PROCES THERMAL GASIFICATION PROCES EU biomethane potential per conversion technology and feedstock type by 2050 (in bcf natural gas equivalent) Source: Navigant analysis

  8. Hydrogen is a valuable addition to the available biomethane supply Hydrogen can supply up to 5.8 quads to the EU buildings, industry, transport and power sectors • There is large theoretical potential of offshore wind and solar PV. The technical potential forgreen hydrogen production is enormous • The costs of hydrogen based on dedicated renewable electricity can come down to about $17/MMBtu • Blue hydrogen produced from natural gas combined with CCS can be a scalable and cost-effective option to accelerate decarbonisation in coming years. • In the energy transition a scale-up of blue hydrogen can increase chances to keep global warming well below 2 degrees C Overview of potential hydrogen production hubs • In longer term the future energy system will be fully renewable, with blue hydrogen being replaced by renewable green hydrogen. • Additional potential for hydrogen exists if imports to the EU are considered as well

  9. Sustainable renewable gas can be supplied at strongly reduced production costs by 2050 The envisioned 2050 production costs of renewable gas–biomethane, power-to-methane and green hydrogen–range from $16/MMBtu for biomethane through thermal gasification to $25/MMBtu for power-to-methane Source: Navigant analysis

  10. Renewable gas can significantly reduce system costs, especially in four key sweet spots COLD SPELLS DISPATCHABLE POWER BUILDINGS POWER Source: US National Weather Service Source: Energy-Charts.de HIGH TEMP HEAT & FEEDSTOCKS HEAVY ROAD TRANSPORT & LONG DISTANCE SHIPPING INDUSTRY TRANSPORT Picture shows the process of producing renewable hydrogen which is used to produce fertilizer, which boosts crop production in a more climate-friendly way H2 Source: Ecofys

  11. Renewable and low carbon gas supply and demand in the optimised gas scenario • Renewable methane – biomethane and power-to-methane – is used primarily in the buildings and power sectors through gas grids and in the transport sector as bio-LNG • Hydrogen is used primarily in the transport, industry, and power sectors and in specific regions also in the buildings sector Source: Navigant analysis

  12. Energy flows in the optimised gas and Minimal gas scenario MINIMAL GAS OPTIMISED GAS

  13. Gas infrastructure needed to scale up renewable gas to 9.6 Tcf by 2050 Gas infrastructure needed to scale up renewable gas to 9.6 Tcf by 2050, enabling a decarbonised and renewables-based energy system at lowest costs • The “optimised gas” scenario results in €19 billion ($21 billion) of lower energy infrastructure costs compared to “minimal gas” annually by 2050 due to prolonged utilisation of gas infrastructure. • Much higher additional cost savings associated with “optimised gas” are achieved elsewhere in the energy system. Electricity infrastructure Gas infrastructure Current EU gas infrastructure

  14. Different options for infrastructure SUPPLY CH4 CH4< 10% H2 CH4< 10% H2 CH4 H2 CH4 DEMAND

  15. Distribution of Biomethane and Hydrogen throughout Europe Option for text H2 CH4 H2 H2

  16. a smart combination of renewable gas and electricity will be the optimal way to decarbonise the EU energy system Using 9.6 Tcf natural gas equivalent of renewable methane and hydrogen through existing gas infrastructure saves society $243 billion annually across the energy system compared to an energy system using a minimal amount of gas. • Renewable and low carbon gas is most valuable in the buildings sector, where relatively small volumes are required in hybrid heat pumps • Largest volumes are expected in heavy transport (long distance trucks and shipping) • Annual societal cost savings by sector: • Buildings $68 billion • Industry $78 billion • Transport $16 billion • Power $60 billion • Infrastructure $21 billion Source: Navigant analysis

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