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Exercise and meaning of decision-making

Reason s of intuitive decision-making. Exercise and meaning of decision-making. unknow n principle problem unknow n ambitions and criteria absence of necessary information absence time leaving out of systematic methods. Models of decision-mak ing. Rational economic model.

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Exercise and meaning of decision-making

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  1. Reasons of intuitive decision-making Exercise and meaning of decision-making • unknown principle problem • unknown ambitions and criteria • absence of necessary information • absence time • leaving out of systematic methods

  2. Models of decision-making • Rational economic model • optimization principle • Administrative model • satisfaction principle

  3. Types of decision-making problems and situations • Right and wrong structure problems • Decision-making in certainty, risk and uncertainty • Static and dynamic decision-making • Decision-making with and without conflict

  4. The structure

  5. Bad structured problem • The global crisis continues find the way to be profitable. • Find new product to our customers. • Excercise • Here you have a sheet of a paper. Do a hole to it and pass through the hole without total destroing the paper.

  6. Excercise • What price reduction can you get? • The order above 100 000 CZk – reduction 5 % • Private taking – reduction 5 % • Local office – reduction 8 % • Create the communication chart B A C D

  7. The final communication chart

  8. Dynamic decision making process Did he see myself? N Y N Y N Is it hungry? Let me alone Does it hear me? Let me alone Does it attack me? N Let me alone Y Y N … Do I win? …

  9. Static decision making • Choose the suitable car for yourself. • This problem can be bad structured but the solution is available in one step (if you know enough criterions and variants).

  10. Competitors point of view • The previous example was non-conflict. • Our solution is independent to actions other people. • Conflict decision making • What event will we visit? • We have a couple. The man want to go to hockey, the woman to the theatre.

  11. Information for decision-making • Primary source • Secondary source • Provision of efficient collection of information • setting range of information • right interpretation of information

  12. Rational process of resolution of decision-making problems • Analysis and formulation of a problem • Assessment criteria appreciation • Production variants solving • Appreciation of variants and choice of the most suitable • Realization of acceptable variant • Controlling results of realized variant • Identification of a decision-making problem

  13. Decision-making in risk and uncertainty Decision-making´s matrix

  14. Rules of decision-making in risk • rule of expected mean value • Ej = Uji*pi • rule of expected mean value of variance • D(z) = (zi – E(z))2*pi

  15. Rules of decision-making in uncertainty • Rule of minimax • Rule of maximax • Laplace´s rule • Hurwitz´s rule • Savage´s rule

  16. Selecting the best alternative The company wants to introduce a new product. The presumptive revenues are depended on time how long will be the company in the market alone. With the rules for deciding in condition of uncertainty choose the best from the three variants.

  17. Rules

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