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Tsunami Warning System Elements IOC Assessment Mission to Indonesia 29 August-1 September 2005

Tsunami Warning System Elements IOC Assessment Mission to Indonesia 29 August-1 September 2005

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Tsunami Warning System Elements IOC Assessment Mission to Indonesia 29 August-1 September 2005

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  1. Tsunami Warning System ElementsIOC Assessment Mission to Indonesia29 August-1 September 2005

  2. Levels of Tsunami Warning Systems • Level I: Basic/Minimal • Earthquake detection • Warning/advisory dissemination system • Educated public able to act appropriately • Level II: Standard • Earthquake detection • Tsunami detection • Warning/advisory dissemination system • Educated public able to act appropriately

  3. Levels of Tsunami Warning Systems • Level III: Advanced • Earthquake detection • Tsunami detection • Tsunami forecast • Warning/advisory dissemination system • Educated public able to act appropriately

  4. Earthquake Very advanced Global network of real-time digital broadband seismometers Earthquake location and magnitude in minutes for any location in the world Tsunami Relatively undeveloped A few tsunameters in Pacific Global network of real-time tide gauges with 2-15 minute sample rates But, often located in harbors and other protected areas that filter out tsunami signal Tsunami Detection Technology

  5. Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis DART Technology development effort one of four key issues in the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program 1996 Implementation Plan: Quickly confirm potentially destructive tsunamis and reduce false alarms. (NTHMP Steering Group, 1996) DART I

  6. DART II Concept • Bottom Pressure Recorder (BPR) measures small changes in pressure at the seafloor. Data sent acoustically to surface buoy, then via satellite (Iridium) to the Warning Centers. • Normal transmissions: Hourly reporting of 15 minute data to confirm system readiness. • Two Event Modes: • Automatic: Triggered by seismic or tsunami wave • Request: Warning Center triggers data stream

  7. Pressure Transducer(heart of the system) • Manufactured by Paroscientific, Inc. in Redmond, Washington, USA • Operates in depths from 0 –6850 meters • Piezoelectric sensor yields high resolution with low noise. • DART system resolution is 0.2 cm of sea water

  8. BPR Instrument and Platform Transducer AcousticRelease Acoustic modem transducer BPR Battery case Anchor

  9. One Hour Impact Zone

  10. Tsunameter Deployment for 30, 60, 90 Minutes

  11. Tsunami ForecastingMeasurement Requirements 1. Measurement type - tsunami amplitude over time for input into forecast models 2. Measurement accuracy - 0.5 cm 3. Measurement sample rate– 1 min or less 4. Measurement processing– within 2 min 5. Measurement availability– within 5 minutes to assimilate into forecast models

  12. Forecast Models

  13. Minutes to hours of warning time Real-time tsunameters and numerical models Pre-computed scenarios used to give first estimates, updated by real-time tsunameter data Real time tsunameter data reduce false alarms Deep ocean models link to near shore models to give inundation predictions Tsunami Forecasts

  14. Operational Tsunami Forecasting • Detection: Tsunami detection networks in critical areas • Modeling: Vast ocean areas with no tsunami measurements requires modeling • Forecast: Effective operational forecasts must integrate real time measurement and modeling • Measurement: DART buoys • Forecast: Tsunami Forecast Model (Propagation and inundation)

  15. Approach and Example: Distant TsunamiHilo, HI 17 November 2003

  16. Model database Unit sources for pre-computed tsunami propagation scenarios

  17. 3cm -3 Mw=7.5 3cm -3 NOAA Tsunami Forecast DART data Seismic data

  18. 3cm -3 3cm -3 NOAA Tsunami Forecast Model offshore forecast

  19. Model coastal forecast Hilo Harbor bathymetry

  20. Tsunami Forecast at Hilo

  21. Approach and Example: Local Tsunami Crescent City, CA 14 June 2005

  22. 14 June 2005 California Non-Destructive Tsunami

  23. First estimate based on pre computed scenarios Revised model based on DART data

  24. 14 June 2005 California Earthquake: Tsunami Forecast using DART data

  25. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System • Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission • Perth ICG working groups on: • Seismic networks • Tide stations • DART Operators Group • Modeling • Hazard and Risk Analysis • Regional Center Interoperability • Context for multi-lateral cooperation and assistance