Bert Bolin (1925-2007)

1. Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927)Professor in StockholmNobel Prize 1903 (”for discovery of how chemical compounds can carryelectrical currents”)”On the Influence of CarbonicAcid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground”Philosphical Magazine and Journalof Science 41, 257-275

3. Bert Bolin (1925-2007) Paper on carbon cycle and global-warming effects and risks already in 1959. Professor of meteorology at Stockholm University 1961 Inititiator of IPCC 1988, chair 1988-1998

6. But scientists? • IPCC, but … • Late reaction • No unanimous (although 3500 in panel) • Why?

7. Andreas Malm: It is our distinctive opinion that if nothing is done now it will be too late (2007) • Linear modelling • Narrow disciplines -- reductionism • (Unreasonable questioning)

8. Linear modelling • Neglect of feed-backs. • But non-linear modelling difficult, often large computer power needed Field is now advancing -- Complex Dynamical Systems

9. The dicovery of ChaosHenri Poincaré1854-1912

10. Edward Lorenz (1917- ) • American meteorologist

11. Vladimir Ivanovic Vernadskij (1863-1945) • The Biosphere (1926) ”As seen from the stellar space the phase of the Earth appears unique, different from all other heavenly bodies. .. Life appears as an indivisible and inseparable unit, with parts bound together with each other as well as with the non-living matter. In the future this picture will be put on a precise and quantitative basis. ”

12. James Lovelock (1919 - ) • Gaia hypothesis (1960ies) ”Earth has a regulatory effect on the Earth’s environment, which sustains life”

13. NASA: Apollo 11

14. But • Holistic approaches more difficult • Reductionism is often very successful -- note Occam’s razor!

15. And Questioning -- the Spirit of Science! • We have to teach politicians and public that we shall never be unanimous, and that the minority, or even the sole individual, may be closest to truth!

16. So, what is next • Kyoto protocoll 1995 • Bali conference 2007 • New restrictions 2010-12? • ? • IS THIS A HUMAN CRISIS?

17. So, what is next • Kyoto protocoll 1995 • Bali conference 2007 • New restrictions 2010-12? • Copenhagen 2009 • IS THIS A HUMAN CRISIS?

18. Individual psychic crisesJohan Cullberg: Crise and development • Chock • Reaction • Work out • Reorientation Acute phases, few weeks Recovery phase, years

19. Defense mechanisms during Acute phases • Regression (childish, magic, drugs) • Denial (not lack of knowledge) • Projection of guilt • Rationalization (third part, no danger,…) • Isolation or suppression of feelings • Unrepression (of earlier experiences) • Amplification of symptoms

20. Defense mechanisms during Acute phases • Regression (childish, magic, drugs) • Denial (not lack of knowledge) • Projection of guilt • Rationalization (third part, no danger,…) • Isolation or suppression of feelings • Unrepression (of earlier experiences) • Amplification of symptoms NOTE: All these may be rational or positive, though hard

21. Recovery phase, therapy • Support patients own capacity • Do not deny reality, reestablish it • Allow patient to express all feelings • Express hope for a future! (”deputy hope”)

22. Recovery phase, therapy • Support patients own capacity • Do not deny reality, reestablish it • Allow patient to express all feelings • Express hope for a future! (”deputy hope”) -- this requires Knowledge Empathy Selfknowledge