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Forecast: Electricity Savings in Vermont from 20 Years of End-Use Efficiency Investment

This presentation discusses the forecasted results of statewide and zonal electricity savings in Vermont over a 20-year period as a result of continued investment in end-use efficiency. It includes projections for residential and business sectors, as well as cost-benefit analysis and major drivers of change.

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Forecast: Electricity Savings in Vermont from 20 Years of End-Use Efficiency Investment

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Presentation Transcript

  1. FORECAST 20Electricity Savings in Vermont From 20 Years of Continued End-Use Efficiency Investment John Plunkett Presentation to The Vermont Systems Planning Committee South Burlington, VT December 9, 2009

  2. Overview Forecast Results • Statewide • Residential • Business • Zonal Budgets Cost Benefit Analysis Methodology Major Drivers of Change • Codes & Standards • CFLs vs. SSL • Sensitivity Analysis Conclusion & Recommendations

  3. The Big Picture 963 GWh / year by 2027 188 MW / year Summer Peak by 2027 160 MW / year Winter Peak by 2027

  4. Comments Received

  5. 50 / 50 Zonal Forecast • Redone, based on sector energy data • Additional appendix item will include details

  6. From VELCO Question: How to apply study results Response: The conclusion and recommendations section now include detailed application instructions Comment: Inclusion of the 90 / 10 zonal forecast Response: The report now includes this

  7. From GMP and DPS • Addressed in report as appropriate • Memo by end of week to answer any remaining comments and questions

  8. Statewide Electric Forecasts

  9. Projected Growth Rates

  10. Statewide Energy Forecast Statewide Energy Forecast

  11. Summer Peak Demand Forecast Summer Peak Demand Forecast

  12. Winter Peak Demand Forecast Winter Peak Demand Forecast

  13. 90 / 10 Scenario Development Assumed substantial reductions in yields in all markets: Lower kWh per $ of program investment Lower summer peak kW per kWh saved

  14. 90 / 10 Forecast Results

  15. 90 / 10 Summer Peak Demand Savings Forecast

  16. Residential Forecasts

  17. Projected Residential Growth Rates

  18. Residential Electric Energy Requirements

  19. Residential Summer Peak Demand Forecast

  20. Residential Winter Peak Demand Forecast

  21. Residential Incremental MWh Saved, by End Use

  22. Residential Cumulative MWh Saved, by End Use

  23. Residential Incremental Summer Peak MW Saved, by End Use

  24. Residential Cumulative Summer Peak MW Saved, by End Use

  25. Business Forecasts

  26. Projected Business Growth Rates

  27. Business Electric Energy Requirements

  28. Business Summer Peak Demand Forecast

  29. Business Winter Peak Demand Forecast

  30. Business Incremental MWh Saved, by End Use

  31. Business Cumulative MWh Saved, by End Use

  32. Business Incremental Summer Peak MW Saved, by End Use

  33. Business Cumulative Summer Peak MW Saved, by End Use

  34. Zonal Forecasts

  35. Vermont Potential Load Zones

  36. Budgets

  37. Budget Overview • Budget fixed at $30.75 million in constant 2009$ • 60 / 40 split of constrained funds between BES / RES • 75 / 25 split of unconstrained funds between BES / RES

  38. Budget Projections After 2013, the budget stays the same in 2009$

  39. Benefit–Cost Analysis

  40. Benefits

  41. Costs

  42. Societal Net Benefits & BCRs * Because societal costs are negative, BCR is meaningless

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