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This presentation by Steve Watts at the COST ESTIMATION CONFERENCE examines critical aspects of cost estimation in major defence projects. It explores the impact of cost uncertainty throughout various phases of the defence capability cycle, including needs, acquisition, in-service, and disposal phases. The discussion highlights how cost estimates evolve over time, particularly as projects progress and risks are realized. It also addresses the effects of changes in design requirements on cost, schedule, and risk, providing valuable insights into strategic strike options and parametric figures for informed decision-making.
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Presentation 2 – Major Defence Project Cost Estimation – Still Room for Improvement Presenter – Steve Watts COST ESTIMATION CONFERENCE
Cost Uncertainty & the Defence Capability Cycle NEEDS PHASE ACQUISITION PHASE IN-SERVICE PHASE DISPOSAL PHASE REQUIREMENTS PHASE FIRST PASS SECOND PASS Accept into Service DCP Entry 1st Pass 2nd Pass Cost estimate becomes more certain as project progresses High Cost Uncertainty Low Cost Uncertainty Cost Estimate Baseline Capital Estimate NPOC Estimate Cost estimate tends to grow over time as risks are realised.
OTS Australianisation New Design/Development Australianisation Change Increase in cost, schedule and risk Seemingly minor requirements changes to OTS design have major impact on cost, schedule and risk OTS Requirements REQUIREMENTS New Design Requirements COST-SCHEDULE-RISK Figure 2 – Concept Diagram – impact on cost, schedule and risk of volume of requirements
Needs PhaseWhat to Cost? Strategic Strike Options
