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Economic Subject Matter

Economic Subject Matter

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Economic Subject Matter

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  1. Economic Subject Matter Grain Outlook October 2006

  2. World Corn Production and Consumption

  3. World Wheat Production and Consumption

  4. U.S. Corn Balance Sheet Agricultural Economics

  5. U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet

  6. U.S. Wheat Balance Sheet

  7. U.S. Corn Use: Exports & FSI/Ethanol Agricultural Economics

  8. U.S. Corn Use Agricultural Economics

  9. U.S. Corn Acres & Production Agricultural Economics

  10. U.S. Corn Yield Agricultural Economics

  11. U.S. Ethanol Capacity • 2006 – record growth continued – 97 plants in 21 States • Current Capacity – 4.48 Billion Gallons (BG) • Record production of 3.9 billion gallons in 2005 – 1.63 BG in 2000 • Currently 33 plants under construction – 1.9 BG new capacity • Dry Mills account for 75% of Capacity • Farmer Owned Plants – 46 • Farmer Owned Plants = 39% Industry Capacity • Energy bill passed in 2005 authorizing 4 billion gallons of renewable fuels to be blended into nation’s fuel supply in 2006, rising to 7.5 billion gallons by 2012 • USDA projects ethanol production to reach or exceed 7 BG by 2010 • 7.5 BG of ethanol from corm = 2.5 billion bushels • Source -- RFA Agricultural Economics

  12. Corn Exports by Major Competitors

  13. Within Season Cash Corn Price Range: Ohio Valley • 95/96 – 2.52 • 96/97 – 1.25 • 97/98 – 0.97 • 98/99 – 0.55 • 99/00 – 0.81 • 00/01 – 0.73 • 01/02 – 0.91 • 02/03 – 0.65 • 03/04 – 1.14 • 04/05 – 0.65 • 05/06 – 1.03

  14. Cash Corn Prices: Ohio Valley

  15. Corn Basis: Ohio Valley

  16. U.S. Soybean Prices & Stocks Agricultural Economics

  17. U.S. Soybean Yield Agricultural Economics

  18. U.S. Soybean Acres & Production Agricultural Economics

  19. U.S., Brazil & Argentina: Soybean Production Agricultural Economics

  20. U.S. Soybean Use Agricultural Economics

  21. Soybean Basis : Ohio Valley

  22. Cash Soybean Prices : Ohio Valley

  23. March 2006 Futures

  24. U.S. Wheat Acres & Yield

  25. U.S. Wheat Acres & Production Agricultural Economics

  26. U.S. Wheat Use Agricultural Economics

  27. Indifference Price: Corn vs. Soybeans Cash Receipts from Corn: 175 Bu x $2.44 cash (Dec. 06 Fut. @ $2.64, basis@ -.20) $427 Relevant Cash Corn Costs: $190 Relevant Cash Soybean Costs (50 Bu): $80 or $110 Residual Cash From Corn =$237 Plus Soybean Costs + $80 or + $95 -- Fungicide Minimum Gross Needed = $317 =$332 At 50 bu/acre soybeans: The Indifference Price =$6.34 = $6.64 Needed Nov. Fut. Price =$6.54 = $6.84 (basis @ -.20) Current November 2006 Soybean Futures Price: $6.16 as of Feb. 27, 2006 Minimum required corn LDP = 0 cents (assumes no soybean LDP) UK Web Based Tools:http://www.uky.edu/Ag/AgEcon/pubs/software/cornvsoybean.html Agricultural Economics

  28. U.S. Corn Prices & Stocks Agricultural Economics

  29. U.S. Wheat Stocks & Prices