Forum On RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

1. Forum On RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS “Toward a Safer America: Building Natural Hazard Resistant Communities Through Risk Management and Assessments” February 5 - 6, 2001

2. WELCOME! RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS Hotel Washington Washington DC Co-sponsored by The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) and Committee on Environment and Natural Resource (CENR), Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction (SNDR)

3. OVERVIEW Forum On Risk Management and Assessments of Natural Hazards • TYPES OF HAZARDS • IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS • DEFINITIONS • STATUTE / GUIDANCE COMPLIANCE • OBJECTIVES • OFCM PRIMER

4. Thunderstorms and Lightning Windstorms TYPES OF HAZARDS Natural Hazards Tropical Cyclones Tornadoes Hailstorms Severe Winterstorms

5. Droughts Floods TYPES OF HAZARDS Natural Hazards Snow Avalanches Landslides, Land Subsidence, and Expansive Soils

6. Volcanoes TYPES OF HAZARDS Natural Hazards Coastal Erosion Earthquakes and Tsunami Events Wildfires

7. TYPES OF HAZARDS Natural Hazards - Space Environmental Disturbaces Electromagnetic Radiation EARTH Electrically Charged Particles • Sun continuously emits electromagnetic radiation and electrically charged particles • Solar activity (solar flares, etc.) can greatly enhance emitted energy • Interact with Earth’s magnetic field and near-earth atmosphere to create an adverse environment

8. TYPES OF HAZARDS Technological Hazards Dam Failures Nuclear Accidents Fires Hazardous Material Events

9. IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS • From 1993-1996, U.S. spent approx. one quarter of a billion dollars PER WEEK on meteorological natural disasters • Earthquakes and hurricanes were the primary causes of monetary losses • From 1975-1994, over 6,000 people killed and 50,000 injured Extracted from The Impacts of Natural Disasters, National Research Council, 1999 and Report on Costs and Benefits of Natural Hazard Mitigation, FEMA, April 1997

10. IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS Most Expensive Natural Disasters in U.S. Billions of Dollars Extracted from The Impacts of Natural Disasters, National Research Council, 1999

11. DEFINITIONS • HAZARD:An event or physical condition that has the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business and other types of harm or loss. • NATURAL HAZARD:A hazard that evolves from atmospheric or weather, geologic, hydrologic, and seismic events.

12. DEFINITIONS • RISK:The potential losses associated with a hazard, defined in terms of expected probability and frequency, exposure, and consequences. • RISK ASSESSMENT:A process or method for evaluating risk associated with a specific hazard and defined in terms of probability and frequency of occurrence, magnitude and severity, exposure, and consequences.

13. DEFINITIONS • RISK MANAGEMENT:Process of deciding what should be done about a hazard; deciding which hazards at what scale (intensity, occurrence interval) should be managed and in what priority. • RISK MITIGATION:Sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term adverse impacts from hazards.

14. Primary Agencies Involved Highlighted in Blue STATUTE / GUIDANCE COMPLIANCE Risk Assessments -- Not Related to Natural Hazards • Many risk assessment actions consistent with statutory compliance and relevant agency guidance • Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), EPA • Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), EPA • Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), EPA • Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act (FAIR), USDA • Federal Crop Insurance Reform and Depart. Of Agriculture Reorganization Act (FCIR / DARA) USDA • Plant Protection Act (PPA), USDA • Endangered Species Act (ESA), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service • National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), USFS, BLM • DoD Instruction 4715.3, Environmental Conservation Program, DoD

15. STATUTE / GUIDANCE COMPLIANCE Risk Assessment / Mitigation -- Related to Natural Hazards • Risk assessment / mitigation actions consistent with statutory compliance and relevant agency guidance • Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 • Directed Federal govt to establish earthquake hazard reduction program • Executive Order 12699 implemented certain provisions of the Act • Federal agencies responsible for design and construction of new buildings must develop seismic safety program • Water Resources Development Act (Public Law 104-303) • Modified flood control program of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers • Placed additional emphasis on nonstructural options (watershed mgmt, wetlands restoration) • National Drought Policy Act of 1998 (Public Law 105-199) • Established National Drought Policy Commission • Created policy / procedures to prepare and respond to serious drought emergencies

16. STATUTE / GUIDANCE COMPLIANCE Risk Assessment / Mitigation -- Related to Natural Hazards • Risk assessment / mitigation actions consistent with statutory compliance and relevant agency guidance • Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 (as amended through Public Law 104-150, The Coastal Zone protection Act of 1996)(15 CFR 923.25) • Coastal State management program must include: • A planning process for assessing the effects of, and studying and evaluating ways to control, or lessen the impact of, shoreline erosion • The Department of the Interior and Related Agencies Appropriations Act 2001, Public Law 106-291 • Provided nearly $2 billion to DOI for wildfire risk reduction and rehabilitation • Executive Order 13151 (May 2, 2000) • Established Global Disaster Information Network • To make more effective use of information technology to prepare for and respond to disasters

17. FORUM OBJECTIVES Overarching objectives are to: • Examine risk assessment processes / approaches that evolved from legislation or agency guidance • Review risk assessment research and its applications to manage / reduce natural hazards • Identify / characterize areas of vulnerability and exposure, probability of occurrence, consequences, and mitigation opportunities • Highlight efforts in developing national standards and capabilities for data monitoring, data collection, and model development • Examine methods to quantify and publicize the social and economic impacts of natural hazards

18. FORUM OBJECTIVES Overarching objectives are to: • Develop a consensus leading to coordinated risk assessment and management of natural hazards through: • Legislative proposals • Policy guidance • Agency cooperation

19. OFCM PRIMER Who is OFCM? Mission To ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather requirements and services, and supporting research, among the federal agencies.

20. OFCM PRIMER Coordinating Infrastructure Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) Program Councils Standing Committees National Space Weather Program Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs Operational Processing Centers National Aviation Weather Program Environmental Information Systems and Communications Climate Monitoring and Services Integrated Observing Systems Cooperative Research

21. OFCM PRIMER OFCM Membership / Affiliations National Research Council (NRC) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Climate Research Committee (CRC) University Corp. for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) US Weather Research Program (USWRP) US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) American Meteorological Society (AMS) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction (SNDR)

22. Margaret Lawless Chairperson of the Subcommittee for Natural Disaster Reduction (SNDR) and Acting Executive Associate Director for Mitigation, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS “Toward a Safer America: Building Natural Hazard Resistant Communities Through Risk Management and Assessments”

24. BACKUPS

25. IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS Space Environmental Disturbaces Solar Activity Solar Effects • Electrical Power Grid Disruptions / Failures • GPS Positioning Errors (Single Freq.) • GPS Loss of Signal Lock (Dual Freq.) • HF / UHF Blackout / Interference • Over-the-Horizon Radar Interference • Satellite Operations • Loss of Satellite • Damage Solar Panels / Electronics • Orbit Decay • Noise in Image Data • Radiation Hazards • To Astronaunts (Extra-Vehicular Activity) • To Passengers / Crews in Supersonic Aircraft at High Altitudes Over the Polar Cap Electromagnetic Radiation High Energy Charged Particles Electrically Charged Particle Clouds

26. IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS Space Environmental Disturbaces July 14-16, 2000 (Bastille Day Storm) • Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft • Permanent solar panel degradation • Equivalent to 1 year of normal degradation • Japanese research satellite • Went into “safe mode” and lost altitude • Unable to orient towards sun for recharge of batteries • Unable to regain control of spacecraft • Expected to reenter earth’s atmosphere next year

27. IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS Space Environmental Disturbaces July 14-16, 2000 (Bastille Day Storm) Electric Power Systems Tripping Voltage Variations Transformer Damage

28. IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS Space Environmental Disturbaces July 14-16, 2000 (Bastille Day Storm) GPS Errors July 15-16, 2000 Average Horizontal Error (Meters) (95%) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 One month average Garmin 12CX Receiver May-June 2000 Located at N47 W92 (Single Freq.) Two days prior to storm Storm days