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UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios

UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios. Richard Lamb UK Climate Impacts Programme. UKCIP. Set up by UK Government in 1997 Funded by Defra; based at Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

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UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios

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  1. UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios Richard Lamb UK Climate Impacts Programme

  2. UKCIP • Set up by UK Government in 1997 • Funded by Defra; based at Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford • UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) “helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts” • Focus on adaptation, given necessity of mitigation

  3. How UKCIP operates • Facilitates relationships between 3 groups of key actors

  4. UKCIP08

  5. CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCIP08 UKCIPnext Background to UKCIP08 • UK climate scenarios produced since 1991 • UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002 • Each version has become more detailed, building upon: • improved scientific knowledge • increased computing power • stakeholder requirements • Each has represented best scientific understanding at that time • Audience has evolved and grown

  6. Dedicated UKCIP08 interactive website • Everything will be available in one place • Key findings • Reports • Pre-prepared maps and graphs. • Interactive user interface (to give customisable output) • Weather Generator • Online help and user guidance

  7. Key Findings Published material Customisable output UKCIP08 layered approach Newspaper advert Recommendation from sales advisor Internet research (multiple sources)

  8. UKCIP08 principles

  9. UKCIP08 principles UKCIP08 based on three important principles: • Examination of the uncertainty associated with the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model • Assessment of the quality of model version results from the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model • Incorporation of results from other climate models

  10. Modelling uncertainties – UKCIP02 as a starting point UKCIP02 Medium-High Emissions Summer 2080s This gives one future climate change outcome... Size of change Time

  11. Modelling uncertainty – UKCIP08 Size of change • 31 parameter values • ~300 versions of the Met OfficeHadley Centre climate model Time

  12. Single results from other IPCC climate models Modelling uncertainties – different models give different results Size of change Time

  13. Count Modelling uncertainty – UKCIP08 Size of change Time

  14. Single results from other IPCC climate models included Modelling uncertainty – PDFs are modified to incorporate single runs of other IPCC models Probability UKCIP08 “probabilistic climate projection” Size of change

  15. Using UKCIP08 What users wanted Address the limitations of previous UK climate scenarios • Improved consideration and quantification of associated uncertainties – probabilistic information • Improved spatial and temporal details • More information about climate change in the marine environment • Improved accessibility (dedicated online user interface)

  16. Greater spatial and temporal detail • 25km X 25km grid One PDF for each of these

  17. Greater spatial and temporal detail • Administrative regions • 25km grid • Pre-defined aggregated areas

  18. Greater spatial and temporal detail • River basins • 25km grid • Pre-defined aggregated areas

  19. Greater spatial and temporal detail • 5km grid • Observed climate datasets including daily max and min temperature • Weather Generator to provide statistical expressions of future daily weather consistent with the climate projections (over land areas)

  20. The UKCIP08 Weather Generator • Provides a statistical expression of future climate at daily time-scales • Allows exploration of climate variables at daily time scale • Adjust observed data using change factors randomly taken from a PDF • Future 30-year time period simulated many times – long sequences of daily output that will be consistent with the UKCIP08 probabilistic climate projections. Uses observed climate (1961 to 1995) at daily time scale

  21. How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail • Climate change for marine regions • Sea areas based on Defra “Charting Progress” report • 9 data sets available • Probabilistic Data PDF available for each area

  22. How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail • Storm surge model • 12km resolution • Not probabilistic

  23. How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail • Sub-surface model • 12km resolution • Not probabilistic • Salinity, temperature and currents

  24. Marine Projections • Probabilistic projections of changes to surface air temperature, precipitation, windspeed and cloud • Absolute sea-level rise over a single UK domain, plus relative sea-level rise for a areas of the coastline • Probabilistic-like projections of extreme water levels (storm-surges) for 2-50yr return periods over the European Shelf – 12 km resolution. • Single projection of changes to ocean subsurface temperature, salinity, E & W currents at 12km over the European Shelf • Wave information for the UK as a whole and for coastal regions. Medium emission scenario only

  25. How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail 2099 2010 2040 2070 2020s 2050s 2080s UKCIP02 Three 30-year time periods 2080s UKCIP08 Seven overlapping 30-year time periods 2070s 2060s 2050s 2040s 2030s 2020s

  26. Warning! • UKCIP08 probabilistic climate projections do not address emissions uncertainty • Future emissions of greenhouse gases are used to drive climate models to project future climate – we cannot know what actual future emissions will be • Important effect beyond ~2050s Probability UKCIP08 will present probabilistic climate projections for 3 emissions scenarios labelled as Low, Medium and High emissions (B1, A1B and A1FI) Change Smaller Larger

  27. Supporting the use of UKCIP08 Training Have completed a series of awareness raising workshops Post-launch training events: • Will cover entire UK • Will introduce UKCIP08 to new users and allow users to get “hands on” with the user interface • Will be supported by e-learning User Guidance Guidance on ways in which the information provided by UKCIP08 can be used • Will include worked examples, frequently asked questions and getting started section • To be updated and revised based on users’ experience once UKCIP08 is available

  28. Keep up to date at www.ukcip08.net ukcip08@ukcip.org.uk

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