Population, Resources, Environment

1. Population, Resources, Environment

2. Population boom • falling death rates and longer lives from better nutrition, sanitary conditions, and healthcare

3. Demographic Transition • After initial population explosion, birth rates drop in more urban affluent societies

4. Population momentum • fast growing societies continue to grow, since many enter reproductive years

5. Population policy • “development = population control” • family planning programs • US retreating under Bush—abstinence only • female literacy/education • China’s experiment • 1979 one-child policy • 250 million fewer births • a success?

6. Problems of population slowing • growth of dependent portion of population • will be especially acute in developing world • It took 50 ys for US average age to increase 5 ys—Mexico’s will go up 20.

7. Problems of population growth • polluting and exhausting resources • Example: Rwanda • is the problem population, or unsustainable practices? • example--eating higher on the food chain

8. water • US water used for glass of milk, burger, small steak? • 200 gallons • 800 gallons • 1300 gallons • depleting aquifers, falling production

9. Soil degradation and desertification • “New Lands”--Aral Sea • Local life expectancy from 65 to 51 • Highest rate of cancer of esophagus in world • http://www.films.com/id/12468/Killing_the_Aral_Sea_Catastrophe_by_Design.htm

10. Rainforest destruction • From logging, slash and burn, fuel wood, cash crops, and ranching • http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-06-09-voa48.cfm

11. Soil erosion • 99% of world’s food from soil, but losing soil—25 m. acres per year • from slash and burn and unsustainable farming, logging, and grazing • Lost to water, wind

13. Some Solutions • Technology • Green Revolution? • Problems: needs expensive inputs, and more water • GM?

14. A special case: the sea • problems of stewardship of a collective good • the failure of international agreements to protect fisheries • 1995 wild fish harvest peaked, despite more intensive fishing • Aquaculture fastest growing animal husbandry

15. oil • Hubberts “peak oil” • Collapse of petro-civilization? • Julian Simon and the Cornucopians

16. Pollution • The development-pollution or Kuznets curve

17. A possible exception: • global warming or “greenhouse effect”

18. What is the Greenhouse effect? • CO2 and other gasses trap sun’s rays

19. Consequences • raising sea levels, causing droughts and storms, and disrupting ecosystems, crop productivity, ocean acidification • self-sustaining processes: • melting polar ice-caps cool less and reflect less light/heat • thawing permafrost releases more g.h. gasses

20. water shortage

21. Kyoto • 1997 Kyoto Protocols, formally in effect since 2004 • U.S. and other developed countries were to reduce g.h. gasses below 1990 levels by 2012 • 1997-’01 Senate fails to ratify the treaty • 2001 Bush dismisses Kyoto Protocols • cites insufficient evidence, too great costs • Developing countries, like China and India exempted

22. Per capita carbon emissions

23. What can be done? • Gas tax • cleaner and alternative forms of energy • California’s “Pavley Law”, and beyond • Northeast states’ cap and trade • Ethanol—and Brazil’s cellulosic ethanol • nuclear? • carbon sequestration

24. Jared Diamond on Cultures that Collapse • Easter Island and Maya—deforestation leading to soil erosion