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Joint horizon scanning

Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making. 16th- 17th October 2008. Joint horizon scanning. Victor van Rij. Netherlands Horizon scan team Knowledge Directorate

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Joint horizon scanning

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  1. Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 Joint horizon scanning Victor van Rij Netherlands Horizon scan team Knowledge Directorate Ministry of Education, Culture and Science

  2. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning

  3. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning

  4. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning Joint Foresight • ERA Net For-society, exchange of know how, ultimate goal joint foresight • Investigation of barriers and advantages of joining foresight • Search for similar foresight activities and willing partners • Creative session of the Network --- horizon scanning most promising candidate for joining foresight activities • Broad scope; Less problems with agenda (opportunity :HS activity in 3 countries more or less at the same time – many countries potentially interested)

  5. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning Partners • Horizon Scanning Centre UK / GOS • Netherlands Horizon Scan COS / Ministry of Education, Culture and Science • Danish Horizon Scan / OECD-Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI) • Maltese Council for Science and Technology (MCST) • PREST • __________________ • Many interested institutions

  6. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning Objectives of the Pilot • exchange experiences and know-how on horizon scanning at the national level; • compare working methods and methodologies used by the different horizon scans and formulate recommendations for improvement; • compare basic data (lists of issues and issue descriptions) from the horizon scans of the UK, Netherlands and Denmark; • develop a model for continuous data sharing and comparison; • formulate recommendations for the development of international cooperation in horizon scanning, including how it can be used.

  7. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning Schedule of the Pilot • Brainstorm with partners and interested institutions (March 19th 2007) • Interviews with scan coordinators, representatives several DG’s EC and interested institutions • Development joint scan base and input data • Pilot partner meeting October 2007 • Report to the For society Network November 2007

  8. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning results Working Methods of the different scans • Different purposes (RD agenda – Public policy) • Phases and a systematic approach • Data gathering and selection / using implicit or explicit values /as far as we can see , imagine/ categories • Literature study complemented by expert panels/interviews • Synthesis/analysis - clusters/scenario’s using creative group thinking • Use: Demand driven and supply approach

  9. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning results Working Methods of the different scans • widen the scope for policy- and decision-makers • provide the basis for resilient (cross-departmental) policies • alert policy-makers to forgotten and emerging (new) risks and opportunities • point out uncertainties, challenge dominant, implicit assumptions about the future • stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels • identify new challenging issues for policy, research, development and innovation; • identify knowledge gaps • identify possible inter linkages (enhancers, inhibitors, multipliers) between future issues • identify new trans-disciplinary and policy domain crossing sets of issues • deliver input to research and innovation, policy, public debate, and departmental policies, • deliver information that can be used for priority-setting for future investments.

  10. Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell

  11. United Kingdom horizon scanning in a nutshell

  12. OECD-DASTI Horizon scan

  13. Opportunities/solutions :Threats/problems from: Human action/brainpower Science & Technology Education Social system Political, Government, legal, economy, finance Other Systems (infrastructures, production, transport, ICT, energy, industry, healthcare, agriculture) Human action/environment Science, technology Education Social system Political, Government, legal Economy, finance Systems (infrastructures, production, transport, ICT, energy, industry, health care, agriculture) With expected large impact on society: COMMON LONG TERM DESIRES & VALUES Physical environment Natural resources from (Outer) Space Space Sea and waters Earth and soil Atmosphere Climate Living world Physical environment Shortage/destruction/ (Outer) Space Space Sea and waters Earth and soil Atmosphere climate Living world Human: Survival , Health Welfare, wealth Wellbeing Democracy, law Self-realization Culture, ethics And Ecology, Ecosystem Biodiversity

  14. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning conclusions Explicit values Netherlands Horizonscan • Biological dimension : Quality of life, Ecological Quality • Social dimension : Social Quality • Economic financial dimension: Economic Quality • Governmental dimension : Juridical and Democratic Quality • Cultural, ethical and intellectual dimension : Cultural, ethical and intellectual Quality • Self realization of (future) citizens, freedom of individuals and of religious and cultural expression • Good neighborhood dimension : International relationship Quality

  15. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning results Joining data and comparison of contents • Comparison categories: • Scans are using almost similar main categories • Joining the data: • Using the Sigma scan database • Comparisons issues: • Contents of the scans are strongly overlapping but also contain unique issues, some issues are not present in 1 of the three scans • Scans can therefore be considered as complementary

  16. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning results Joining data and comparison of contents

  17. UK categories A B 146 issues C Combined categories A a I B b II total: approx C c III 430 issues DK headings I II 125 issues III NL domains a b 159 issues c

  18. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning results Joining data and comparison of contents

  19. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning results Positioning , role and impact • Central positioning (UK, Netherlands, Denmark) • Different assignments (cross departmental policies, R,D & I agenda setting) • Informing and stimulating other departments and levels of governance and society (UK ) • Impact on R&D strategic agenda (Denmark, Netherlands) • Sometimes the value of the scan is still underestimated, despite of the central position

  20. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning conclusions Conclusions regarding the common database • It is feasible to join the data for comparable analysis provided that we discuss and agree on common coordinates • Joining enriches the data and lends itself for the formulation of in-depth scans but also for identification of emerging common challenges • Issues have been selected according to implicit /explicit value sets which differ per country. It is important to make the selection of issues transparent (especially if this is outsourced) • The UK sigma scan database could with some adaptation be used to join the input from different countries

  21. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning conclusions Recommendations joint horizon scanning • Enriching in depth , connecting with more detailed scans of domains or issues, the role of scientific contributions • Expansion in width, introducing scans from other angles, using more (new) participatory approaches to collect data (through Weblogs, wiki-like constructions etc) other countries but also OECD,ESF, IPTS etc • Incorporating and connecting to different Users on the EC level • Developing instruments for impact measurement /improvement • (Lead question: we know there is always impact , but is it effective? Do we reach the real decision makers? Does it hits the right targets? Do we increase the speed of reaction to future threats and opportunities??? Do we create more sustainable and resilient Policies by using HS?)

  22. Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Joint Horizon scanning conclusions Recommendations joint horizon scanning • Further cooperation could be directed to further development of horizon scanning with focus on the following common aspects: • Recognition and filtering of weak signals (for instance with the help of web-bots) • Dealing with complexity envisioning long term common challenges on basis of the combined scans • Widening stakeholder and HL decision makers involvement • Overcome the dilemma of present day agenda vs long term strategy (time for the future) , using boundary knowledge

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