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Before Legco Votes on Constitutional Reform

Before Legco Votes on Constitutional Reform. 政制表決之前 — 激烈衝突是否無法避免？ 猶其是香港渴求改變之音與潛在憤怒日增. Avoidable confrontation or inevitable conflict? The Hong Kong public shows rising anger and demands for change June 2010. Before the Legislature Votes. 政制表決之前 -- 激烈衝突是否無法避免？ 猶其是香港渴求改變之音與潛在憤怒日增.

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Before Legco Votes on Constitutional Reform

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  1. Before Legco Votes on Constitutional Reform 政制表決之前— 激烈衝突是否無法避免？ 猶其是香港渴求改變之音與潛在憤怒日增 • Avoidable confrontation or inevitable conflict? • The Hong Kong public shows rising anger and demands for change • June 2010

  2. Before the Legislature Votes 政制表決之前--激烈衝突是否無法避免？ 猶其是香港渴求改變之音與潛在憤怒日增 Hong Kong Attitudes toward Constitutional Reform June 2010

  3. What do Hong Kong people want their legislators to do?香港人希望立法會議員做甚麼？

  4. What should your Legco member’s top priority be? 代表你的立法會議員首要任務是？ 通過可達致2012全面普選的政制改革 Chart/Table 20, p 27

  5. 希望有改革 Just can’t agree exactly WHAT reform they want and when 81 % want reform 然而，不知道應進行甚麼政制改革及何時進行

  6. What are party supporters saying to the legislators they helped elect and voted for?對於政黨的支持者，他們對於議員有甚麼期許？

  7. Support/oppose Gov reforms BY Which party represents best 支持/反對政府方案—按政黨分類的比率

  8. How many see a party as representing their interests?有幾多人視政黨代表他們利益？

  9. Which party represents your interests best? 最能代表你利益的政黨 Chart/Table 32, p 38

  10. No party represents a majority, neither does the government. So what does a majority want?沒有政黨代表大多數人，政府同樣面對此問題。究竟大多數人想得到甚麼？

  11. Two Minds? 兩種思維 • Government always holds fake consultations, pan-democrats must reject plan政府經常作假諮詢，泛民必須否決方案 • Pan-democrats must compromise because we need reform泛民必須妥協，因為我們需要改革 Chart/Table 6 & 7 p 13

  12. People should strongly protest government reform with hunger strikes and blocking government offices市民必須強烈手段抗議政府方案，如絕食及阻塞政府辦公室通道 Two Minds? 兩種思維 • Gradual reform is better than no progress at all漸序漸進猶勝原地踏步 Chart/Table 8 & 9, p 14

  13. Two Minds? 兩種思維 Do you generally support Govt reform plan?你是否大致同意政府政改方案 Do you agree/disagree: The Govt reform plan is acceptable to me你是否同意此描述：我可以接受政府的政改方案 Chart/Table 2 & 3, p 11

  14. Maybe not可能有另一種看法 • On some things views are clear. • 某些觀點是清晰的 • Most Hong Kong people want reform. • 大部份香港人希望改革 • Most prefer gradual reform over strong protest. • 大部份希望漸序漸進而非強烈抗爭 • But a minority are getting very frustrated with both the pace and profiles of reform, and with the current problems in governance. • 但是有一小部份人對於政改步伐、內容及目前的管治問題感到非常焦慮

  15. Who are these frustrated, angry people?誰是這些憤怒、焦慮的人 • What are they angry and frustrated about? • 他們的憤怒與焦慮源自甚麼？

  16. People should strongly protest government reform with hunger strikes and blocking government offices BY Age group 市民必須強烈手段抗議政府方案，如絕食及阻塞政府辦公室通道—按年齡統計 Chart/Table 10, p 15

  17. Many are under 40大部份都是40歲以下 Particularly those who strongly support hunger strikes and blockades of offices 猶其是強烈贊成絕食與阻塞政府辦公室

  18. People should strongly protest government reform with hunger strikes and blocking government offices BY Sex 市民必須強烈手段抗議政府方案，如絕食及阻塞政府辦公室通道—按性別統計 Table 11, p 16

  19. 5% of all men strongly support provocative action 5%受訪男性強烈支持激烈行動 • That’s well over 140,000 men 18 and up • 即大約有140,000位18歲或以上的男性

  20. People should strongly protest government reform with hunger strikes and blocking government offices BY Education level 市民必須強烈手段抗議政府方案，如絕食及阻塞政府辦公室通道—按學歷統計 These are mostly current students此族群是大多是現在的學生 Chart/Table 12, p 16

  21. Satisfaction with performance of Hong Kong Government對香港政府表現的滿意度

  22. Satisfaction lowest since Tsang took office最低的滿意度是在曾蔭權上任後開始

  23. Satisfaction with performance of Hong Kong Gov BY Sex 對香港政府表現的滿意度—按性別統計 Chart/Table 69, p 61

  24. 1 in 5 men VERY DISSATISFIED 5分之1男性非常不滿意

  25. Satisfaction with Gov performance BY Support Gov Reforms 對香港政府表現的滿意度— 按支持政府方案類別統計 Chart/Table 74, p 63

  26. Dissatisfaction directly related to opposition to Government reform proposals 不滿情緒直接與反對政府政改方案有關

  27. Satisfaction with PRC Gov handling Hong Kong affairs對中國政府處理香港事務的滿意度 Table p 69

  28. Satisfaction with PRC Gov handling Hong Kong affairs BY Age對中國政府處理香港事務的滿意度—按年齡統計 Chart/Table 84, p 71

  29. A majority of teen-agers dissatisfied with PRC Government handling of Hong Kong affairs有一大部份年青人不滿意中國政府處理香港事務方式

  30. Satisfaction with PRC Gov ruling China對中國政府管治中國的滿意度 Table p 73

  31. Student versus Non-Student BY Satisfaction with Hong Kong government’s handling of relations with the PRC government香港政府處理與中國政府關係事務的滿意度—按學生與非學生統計

  32. Student versus Non-Student BY Satisfaction with PRC government’s handling of relations with the Hong Kong government 中國政府處理與香港政府關係事務的滿意度—按學生與非學生統計 Chart/Table 104, p 83

  33. Student anger and frustration WILL turn to focus on PRC Government 學生的焦慮與憤怒會聚焦於中國政府

  34. Student BY Satisfaction with PRC government rule of China對中國政府管治中國的滿意度—按學生與非學生統計 Chart/Table 105, p 83

  35. A Majority of Students are dissatisfied with PRC Government’s rule of China大部份學生不滿中國政府管治中國的現況

  36. Damage to belief in government as a solution to problems of greatest concern破壞了視政府作為最關注議題解決者的信任

  37. Do you believe making the CE & Legco members more accountable to voters with direct elections would improve performance on solving your problem of greatest personal concern? 你是否相信通過直選而產生的特首及立法會議員能夠提高他們解決你所關注的議題的能力？ Chart/Table 55, p 52

  38. Do you think political parties in Hong Kong are having a good effect or bad effect on this problem (of greatest personal concern)?你認為香港政黨對於解決你個人關注的議題是有良好，抑或不良的影響？ Chart/Table 56, p 52

  39. Has governance and political failure damaged support for democracy?管治與政策上的失敗是否已經動搖了對民主的支持？

  40. Do you support or oppose abolishing FCs?你支持，還是反對廢除功能組別？ Chart/Table 57, p 53

  41. Support up, but opposition increased in degree 贊成比率有上升，可是反對比率同樣有上升

  42. Do you support or oppose: Directly electing all members of Legco你是否贊成全面直選立法會議員？ Chart/Table 58, p 53

  43. Opposition to direct election of all Legco members way up, support at lowest ever measured 反對全面直選比率上升，而支持則跌至新低

  44. Do you support or oppose: Directly electing the Chief Executive 你是否贊成全面直選行政長官 Chart/Table 59, p 54

  45. Changes in balance between satisfaction and dissatisfaction with performance of parties, 2004-20102004-2010年政黨滿意度的轉變 Chart/Table 41, p 43-44

  46. On the eve of voting . . .在投票的前夕 • The situation:當前情勢： • Anger up 憤怒上升 • Satisfaction down 滿意度下降 • Belief in democracy weakened • 對民主的信念下降 • Dissatisfaction with China’s government, Hong Kong government & political parties all up • 對中國政府、香港政府及政黨的不滿上升

  47. 5% of Men strongly support hunger strikes and blocking government offices5%男性強烈贊成絕食及阻塞政府辦公室 • Two thirds are under age 40 • 3分之2是40歲以下 • One third are under age 30 • 3分之1是30歲以下 • 13% of population supports or strongly supports hunger strikes and blockading government offices • 13%受訪者支持或者強烈支持絕食及阻塞政府辦公室 • 70% oppose these actions • 70%.反對這些行為

  48. If pan-dems veto reform, and violence erupts, who gets blamed?若泛民否決方案，而暴力行為爆發，誰會受遣責？ • The Hong Kong Government for refusing to compromise? • 香港政府阻絕妥協？ • The Beijing Government for refusing to let Hong Kong Government compromise? • 中央政府拒絕香港政府作讓步？ • The pan-democrats for refusing to compromise? • 泛民拒絕讓步？

  49. If pan-dems pass reform, and violence erupts, who gets blamed?若泛民通過方案，而暴力行為爆發，誰會受遣責？ • While likelihood of violence diminishes greatly if reform passes, some may still be greatly dissatisfied with so little change. • So passing small reforms must lead to stronger belief in greater change, soon. • 發生暴力事件的機率會下降，雖然部份人會因改變幅度之少而感到失望。而且通過小改革會加強對於較大改變在即的信念

  50. Can students, teen-ager’s anger be controlled?學生與年青人的憤怒可否被控制？ Can it be focused locally and not become directed at PRC entities? 可否將聚焦點集中於本土，而非直接指向中央政府？ What if some entities are hoping, and preparing, for “turmoil” in Hong Kong, “aimed at PRC overthrow?” 會否有部份人正準備在香港製造騷動，旨在推翻中央政府？

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