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TEAM #141 Brandon Comella Gawain Lau Kelvin Mei Nevin Raj Yiwen Zhan

Ethanol: The Future of America’s Energy Independence?. TEAM #141 Brandon Comella Gawain Lau Kelvin Mei Nevin Raj Yiwen Zhan. Overview. The Current Situation Objectives Assumptions The Model Part I: Replacing Gasoline With Ethanol Part II: Effect On CO 2 Emissions

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TEAM #141 Brandon Comella Gawain Lau Kelvin Mei Nevin Raj Yiwen Zhan

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  1. Ethanol: The Future of America’s Energy Independence? TEAM #141 Brandon Comella Gawain Lau Kelvin Mei Nevin Raj Yiwen Zhan

  2. Overview • The Current Situation • Objectives • Assumptions • The Model • Part I: Replacing Gasoline With Ethanol • Part II: Effect On CO2 Emissions • Part III: Cost Efficiency • Part IV: Effect On Developing Economies • Part V: Exploring Alternatives • Testing The Model • Conclusions • References

  3. The Current Situation • Political instability, rising oil prices, economic insecurities, diminishing supplies, global climate change • Energy crossroad: Petroleum vs. Ethanol, Non-renewable vs. Renewable • Fuel-Flex vehicles (E85) and developing infrastructure

  4. Objectives I. Calculate amount of ethanol required to replace a fixed percentage of gasoline consumption II. Quantify the effects of ethanol on carbon dioxide emissions III. Determine the efficiency of ethanol as an alternative fuel source IV. Understand the impact of increased ethanol production on developing economies V. Address the feasibility of other alternate fuel sources

  5. Assumptions 1. U.S. consumption of gasoline will continue to increase despite increasing gas prices 2. The United States economy will continue to grow steadily over the next several years 3. Unpredictable variables, such as technological advances and major economic shifts, will not be taken into consideration

  6. Part I: Replacing Gasoline With Ethanol Predicting future gasoline consumption, C(t): • Exponential growth model was used for gasoline consumption, to parallel exponential population growth: C(t) = C0(1+r)t C(t) = 4.2x108 (1.014)t Solving for r: C0= 4.170488927 x 108 liters C1 = 4.228463696 x 108 liters r = 0.014 n=1, since compounded annually Eq. 1

  7. Part I: Replacing Gasoline With Ethanol (Con’t) C(t) = 4.2x108 (1.014)t

  8. Part I: Replacing Gasoline With Ethanol (Con’t) Volume of gasoline to energy from gasoline: 1 liter of gasoline → 32,761 BTU E(t) = 32761*C(t) Energy from gasoline to energy from ethanol: Ee(t) = 32761*0.1*C(t) = 3276.1*C(t) Energy from ethanol to volume of ethanol: 1 liter of ethanol → 20,343 BTU Ee(t)/20343 = 0.161C(t)

  9. Part I: Replacing Gasoline With Ethanol (Con’t) • The United States had the capacity to produce nearly 27 billion liters of ethanol in 2007. • However, our model predicts about 85 billion liters of ethanol would be needed. • Therefore, the United States would need to improve its infrastructure to meet 3 times its current max capacity.

  10. 1. Model for Fossil Fuels: Coal: Natural Gas: Petroleum: Other Fuel Sources: Part II: Effect On CO2 Emissions

  11. (1991- 2007) Part II: Effect On CO2 Emissions (Con’t) 1. Graph for Fossil Fuels:

  12. Part II: Effect on CO2 Emissions (Con’t) 1. Table for Fossil Fuels: Dividing the value for one year by its preceding year, on average, carbon dioxide emissions are increasing at a rate of 1.01416% annually

  13. Photosynthesis: 6CO2 + 6H2O + Solar radiation C6H12O6 + 6O2 + Heat Fermentation: C6H12O6 2C2H5OH + 2CO2 + Heat Combustion: 2C2H5OH + 6O2  4CO2 + 6H2O + Heat 1 ha produces 8955 kg CO2 1 ha = 1 ha • (2.4711 acres / ha) • (328 gallons ethanol / acre) • (3.785 L / gallon) = 3067.82 L ethanol 3067.82 L ethanol = 8955 kg CO2 generated, and: 2.919 kg CO2 generated per L ethanol used Part II: Effect On CO2 Emissions (Con’t) 2. Model for Ethanol: CO2 from fermentation is natural, so its value is zero. However, the amount of CO2 released through industrial processes is as follows:

  14. Part II: Effect on CO2 Emissions (Con’t) 3. Combining Fossil Fuels and Ethanol Models: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Conclusion: If 10% of U.S. gasoline usage is replaced with ethanol, CO2 emissions will decrease by an average of 4.33%.

  15. Part III: Cost Efficiency, εc εc = (O – I) / C Variables: O is the output, the amount of energy released by the fuel per unit of measure I is the input, the amount of energy required to create the fuel from raw materials per unit of measure C is the cost, the production cost of the fuel per unit of measure

  16. Part III: Cost Efficiency, εc (Con’t) Comparative Efficiency Calculations Gasoline: O = 33050.4 BTU/L I = 8006.96 BTU/L O – I = 25043.44 BTU/L C = .494 $/L Ethanol: O = 20164.25 BTU/L I = 12099.61 BTU/L O – I = 8064.64 BTU/L C = .66 $/L εc= 50695.22 BTU/$ > εc= 12219.15 BTU/$

  17. Gasoline Supply and Demand Curves Ethanol Supply and Demand Curves Part III: Cost Efficiency, εc (Con’t) (Graphs depict gasoline-dependent economy)

  18. Part IV: Effect on Developing Economies Currently only 32% of ethanol used to make high-protein feed Only 10.8% used for food items Surplus of 700 million bushels Record yields create more available corn for ethanol

  19. Part IV: Effect on Developing Economies (Con’t) Farm food costs=19% •Energy costs are 2-3 times more influential than food costs •Corn makes up only a fraction of foods •Increased corn prices would affect only a small portion of the market

  20. Part IV: Effect on Developing Economies (Con’t) • Many developing nations are located in populous Asia, which relies on rice and uses little corn • Most developing nations would be hit harder by an increase in oil prices than an increase in corn prices • For developing nations in the Americas, however, ethanol use will increase food prices. This could disrupt trade and growth rates in the Americas.

  21. Part V: Exploring Alternatives • Pursue independent petroleum sources • Expand renewable energy resource pool: • Geothermal • Biomass • Photovoltaic • Hydropower • Wind • Improve efficiency of existing infrastructure

  22. Quantitative Analysis Part V: Exploring Alternatives (Con’t) Each source was given a score (1-10) in the following areas: • Land Use: (1 – h/200000) * 10; h = hectares of land • Energy: (o/50) x 10; o = units of output • Cost: (1 – c/0.2) * 10; c = cost per kWh • Availability: subjective score

  23. Part V: Exploring Alternatives (Con’t)

  24. Testing the Model • Observe future trends and apply the data to the system (determines accuracy amid numerous lurking variables) • Small scale systems to measure comparative energy yields and carbon dioxide emissions • Observational studies • Laboratory experiments

  25. Conclusions • Is Ethanol the future of America’s energy independence? • Our model suggests ethanol is inefficient: • Production is dependent on gasoline availability • Low cost efficiency • Developing nations with a high dependency on wheat will be adversely affected • Benefit of CO2 emissions reduction does not outweigh setbacks • Energy independence may be attained if a variety of sources contribute to the growing needs. Gasoline, ethanol, hydropower, geothermal energy, wind power, photovoltaic cells, and biomass are all feasible means when used together.

  26. References “Ag Economist: World Grain Demand Straining US Supply.” Environmental News Network. 20 Feb 2008. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.enn.com/business/article/31487>. “Agriculture.” United States Census Bureau. 2007. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.census.gov/prod/2 006pubs/07statab/agricult.pdf>. “Biofuels for Transportation.” Genomics:GTL. 10 July 2007. 9 Mar 2008 <http://genomicsgtl.e nergy.gov/biofuels/transportation.shtml#consumption>. Brown, Lester R. “Why Ethanol Production will Drive Food Prices Even Higher in 2008.” Earth Policy Institute. 24 Jan 2008. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates /2008/Update69.htm>. Conniff, Richard. “Who’s Fueling Whom?” Smithsonian Magazine. Nov 2007. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/presence-biofuel-200711.html>. Cooke, Ronald E. “What is the Real Cost of Corn Ethanol?” Financial Sense Editorials. 2 Feb 2007. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/cooke/2007/0202.html>. “Corn: Trade.” United States Department of Agriculture. 20 July 2006. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Corn/trade.htm>. Dickerson, Marla. “Brazil’s Ethanol Effort Helping Lead to Oil Self-Sufficiency.” The Seattle Times. 17 June 2005. 9 Mar 2008 <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nati onworld/2002339093_brazilfuel17.html>. “Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Report.” Energy Information Administration. 28 Nov 2007. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/carbon.html>. “Ethanol Facts: Food vs Fuel” Renewable Fuels Association. 2005. 9 Mar 2008 <http://w ww.ethanolrfa.org/resource/facts/food/>. “Food vs Fuel.” BusinessWeek. 5 Feb 2007. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.businessweek.com/maga zine/content/07_06/b4020093.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story>. Kirchoff, Sue, and John Waggoner. “Global Demand Lifts Grain Prices: Gobble Supplies.” USA Today. 2008. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2008-02-11-food-prices_N.htm>. Leibtag, Ephraim. “Corn Prices Near Record High: But What About Food Costs?” Amber Waves. Feb 2008. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/February08 /Features/CornPrices.htm>.

  27. References (Con’t) “U.S. Finished Motor Gasoline Product Supplied (Thousand Barrels).” Energy Information Administration. 29 Feb 2008. 9 Mar 2008 <http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mgf upus1M.htm>. Patzek, Tad W. “Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle.” 22 July 2006. 9 Mar 2008 <http://petroleum.berkeley.edu/papers/patzek/CRPS416-Patzek-Web.pdf>. Pimental, David, and Tad Patzek. “Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass, and Wood; Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower.” 30 Jan 2005. 9 Mar 2008 <http://petroleum.berkeley.edu/papers/Biofuels/NRRethanol.2005.pdf>. Pimental, David, et al. “Renewable Energy: Current and Potential Issues.” Bioscience. Dec 2002. 9 Mar 2008 <http://arec.oregonstate.edu/jaeger/energy/Renewable%20energy%20article %20pimental.pdf>. “Renewable Energy Techonology Characteristics.” U.S. Department of Energy. 15 Nov 2007. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/tech_characterizations.html>. Rowlett, Russ. “U.S. Comercial Bushel Sizes.” How Many? A Dictionary of Units of Measurement. 2001. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.unc.edu/~rowlett/units/scales/bushels.htm l>. Segelken, Roger. “Ethanol Fuel from Corn Faulted as ‘Unsustainable Subsidized Food Burning.’” Ethanol. 9 Mar 2008 <http://healthandenergy.com/ethanol.htm>. Shapouri, Hosein. “The 2001 Net Energy Balance of Ethanol.” United States Department of Agriculture. 2004. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.ethanol-gec.org/netenergy/NEYShapouri.ht m>. “Short Term Energy Outlook.” Energy Information Administration. 12 Feb 2008. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo>. “Types of Fuel.” How Stuff Works: It’s Good to Know. 2008. 9 Mar 2008 <http://auto.howstuffworks.com/question707.htm>. “Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program.” Energy Information Administration. 2000. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/coefficients.html>. Von Braun, Joachim, and R. K. Pachauri. “The Promises and Challenges of Biofuels for the Poor in Developing Countries.” International Food Policy Research Institute Publications. Nov 2006. 9 Mar 2008 <http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/books/ar2005/ar2005_essay.asp>. Zhou, Tommy, et al. “Energy Consumption of the United States.” Energy Consumption of the United States. 2002. 9 Mar 2008 <http://hypertextbook.com/facts/1998/Tommy Zhou.shtml>.

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