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a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 04 August 2011

a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 04 August 2011. Title : Identification of Dry thunderstorms using cloud top properties from GOES imagery: Applications to Fire Weather Forecasting at the Storm Prediction Center Status : New Duration : 2 years Project Leads:

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a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 04 August 2011

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  1. a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Pageversion 04 August 2011 Title:Identification of Dry thunderstorms using cloud top properties from GOES imagery: Applications to Fire Weather Forecasting at the Storm Prediction Center Status: New Duration: 2 years Project Leads: Robert M RabinNOAA/NSSLrabin@ssec.wisc.edu Phillip Bothwell NOAA/NWS/SPC Other Participants: Dan Lindsey NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB Andrew Heidinger, NOAA/NESDIS/ASBP William Straka CIMSS University of Wisconsin-Madison Louie Grasso CIRA Colorado State University 11

  2. b. Project Summary • Detection of “dry thunderstorms” for fire weather guidance • Based on relatively small ice crystals at storm top • Inferred high cloud base and reduced precipitation efficiency • Deduced from GOES ice effective radius retrievals • Validate with lightning, radar & gauge data • Testing and implementation at NOAA/SPC and local offices 33

  3. c. Motivation / Justification • Dry thunderstorms pose a hazard for ignition of wildfires: Lightning, wind gusts • SPC forecasts included in fire weather outlook: No current techniques to identify occurrence • Radar & Satellite can overestimate precipitation reaching ground • Ice crystal size at cloud-top may relate to precipitation efficiency • Ice effective radius can be estimated from GOES 3.9 & 10.7 micron data 44

  4. Effective radius of cloud top hydrometeors: 20June 2011 GOES-13 Liquid phase (green) and ice phase (10-50 microns: blue, yellow, red).

  5. d. Methodology • Algorithm development: • Lightning (NLDN) • Evolution of GOES estimates of cloud-top ice effective radius Optical depth, type/phase, height (GOES-R Cloud AWG) • Determine anomaly based on climatology (Lindsey stats) Validate: • Available vertical radar reflectivity profiles (NMQ) and hourly gauge (HADS, NMQ) • Fire starts from ABBA (GOES) • Change in surface wetness from GOES, AMSR-E indices Testing and Evaluation: • NOAA/SPC, HWT, SAB 88

  6. e. Expected Outcomes • Real-time tool for diagnosing Dry Thunderstorms and Potential for Fire Initiation • Application to QPE estimation in western U.S. Extended Application: • Improve understanding of effects of aerosols (smoke, dust) on: precipitation efficiency and storm intensity 99

  7. GOES-13 Visible 27 April 2011: Extensive smoke plume and convection

  8. GOES-13 Visible + Effective radius: Role of smoke?

  9. e. Possible Path to Operations • Testing and implementation at: • NOAA/SPC fire weather unit • Hazardous Weather Testbed • NESDIS SAB: Integrate with Fire/Smoke Products If successful, make available to Local NWS offices via AWIPS2 1212

  10. f. Milestones FY 2012: 1. Acquire real-time access to required data: Ice effective radius, cloud optical depth and height, CG lightning, reflectivity profiles, rain gauge data 2. Identify wet and dry thunderstorm cases 3. Compute anomalies in cloud top properties. 4. Design algorithm (based on cloud top differences between wet and dry cases) . Note: list milestones for year 1 and year 2 1313

  11. f. Milestones FY 2013: 1. Implement real-time algorithm and automated validation 2. Provide output on web and NAWIPS, AWIPS2 3. Test and Validate at SPC, HWT. 4. Integrate with smoke fire products at NESDIS SAB. 1414

  12. g. Funding Request (K) 1515

  13. g. Spending Plan FY12 • FY12 $43,000 Total Project Budget • Grant to CI -CIMSS ($10K), CIRA ($3K) • % FTE - CIMSS only • Travel - CIRA only • Publication charge - None • Transfers to NSSL –$30K $19K CIMMS salaries: analysis of data, algorithm development, testing $ 5K IT support (NSSL) $ 3K Hardware (workstation) $ 3K Travel (R. Rabin), Approximately 3 trips Norman-CIMSS 3 trips Norman-CIRA 1616

  14. g. Spending Plan FY13 • FY13 $43,000 Total Project Budget Grant to CI -CIMSS ($10K), CIRA ($3K) • % FTE - CIMSS only • Travel - CIRA only • Publication charge - Transfers to NSSL –$30K $22K CIMMS salaries: analysis of data, algorithm development, testing $ 5K IT support (NSSL) $ 3K Travel (R. Rabin), Approximately 3 trips Norman-CIMSS 3 trips Norman-CIRA 1717

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