Predicting the Future

1. Predicting the Future Project Scheduling Tools & Techniques Duane Webb, BioWare Corp.

2. Topics Discussed • Scheduling Concepts • Predictability • Early Project Techniques • Estimating Techniques • Contingency Planning • Managing to your Schedule

3. What is a Schedule for? • Predicts a completion date • Creates a picture of the entire project • Breaks the work down into components • Tool to track progress

4. Why do schedules fail? • Poor estimates • Missed or unclear requirements • Scope changes • Staffing issues • Stakeholder pressure • Poor productivity • Inexperienced project management • … and much more

5. What makes a good schedule? • PERT / CPM ? • Monte Carlo simulation techniques? • Earned Value assessments? • PMP Certified Project Managers? • Better estimation techniques? • More up-front planning? • Better specifications?

6. What makes a good schedule? • Good management • Experience • Team Leads, Producers, Project Managers, Developers, etc. • Historical Data • Flexibility, Adaptability, Realism • Understanding the trade-offs on a project

7. Project Triangle Scope What about Quality? Resources Time

8. Project Fulcrum Balance Scope Time Quality Resources

9. Project Fulcrum Maintain Balance Scope Time Quality Resources

10. Plan for Change • Change is inevitable • Scope will increase • Requirements will be missed or forgotten • Accept it and be prepared to adapt!

11. Topics Discussed • Scheduling Concepts • Predictability • Early Project Techniques • Estimating Techniques • Contingency Planning • Managing to your Schedule

12. Precision vs. Accuracy • During initial planning, there are hundreds of decisions, issues and challenges which are yet to be made. • An impressive-looking schedule with specific dates (precision) isn’t close to reflecting reality (accuracy). • Precision is easy, Accuracy is difficult! • “The Art of Project Management” by Scott Berkun

13. Sample Schedules

14. Sample Schedules

15. Why make a schedule? • Planning process helps identify risks, issues and requirements • An inaccurate schedule still provides value • Forecast for completion • Provides a roadmap • Management tool

16. Schedule Probability: “Schedules need to be good enough for the team and the leaders to believe in, provide a basis for tracking and making adjustments, and have a probability of success!” • “The Art of Project Management” by Scott Berkun The Art of Project Management, by Scott Berkun

17. “A day lost at the beginning of a project hurts just as much as a day lost at the end.” “The Deadline” by Tom DeMarco

18. Topics Discussed • Scheduling Concepts • Predictability • Early Project Techniques • Estimating Techniques • Contingency Planning • Managing to your Schedule

19. Early Project Scheduling • You need to provide a long-term view of your project • For executive producers, publishers and investors • You need to provide a high probability of success, but do not assume accuracy. • Be realistic!

20. Predict the future based on past • Size every project, past and present • Use common characteristics of the work • # Models, poly counts, size of levels, etc. • Collect historical data to derive productivity trends from past projects • post-mortems • payroll data & man-months • Crunch time will NOT be included in this data! • determine the ‘size’ characteristics of your past projects

21. Early Project Scheduling • Use the past to predict the future • Estimate the ‘size’ of your new project • Compare relatively to past projects • Factor in technology changes, engine maturity, available training resources • Track the data on all new projects!

22. Early Project Scheduling • Use your “Typical” project template • Define your “Typical” project milestones • Work backwards from release • Identify differences for this project • Create a staffing plan and establish your cost budget

23. Determine your “Typical” project

24. Determine your “Typical” project

25. Determine your “Typical” project

26. Example of a Staffing Plan

27. Topics Discussed • Scheduling Concepts • Predictability • Early Project Techniques • Estimating Techniques • Contingency Planning • Managing to your Schedule

28. Prototyping and Pre-production • Address the highest risk features and unknowns on the project first • Shakedown the pipeline and measure • Measure the time to create assets and get them into the game • Provides valuable data for your schedule! • This is when most of the work is done in creating a schedule with a higher probability of success!

29. Estimating effort • Estimates are inaccurate – be realistic • Putting a lot of effort into estimating does not always result in more accuracy • Experienced developers should be part of the process

30. Estimate Convergence Graph Check this  Rapid Development, Steve McConnell

31. Estimating Techniques • 5-4-3-2-1 Method • Planning Poker • Developer Estimates in detail

32. 5-4-3-2-1 Estimating Measures high level feasibility, “In the ballpark” LOD *120d = “Don’t know”, should work to break this down

33. 5-4-3-2-1 Estimating • Provides quick, high level, long term scoping • Can be done individually (then distribute) • Estimate the size of the task, not days • Should include QA time for acceptance tests • Compare relative sizes with other tasks • Then take a second pass through once you are complete.

34. Planning Poker • Agile Development method • Includes the customer • Includes a number of developers • Uses cards numbered • 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100 • Numbers represent relative size, not days • “Agile Estimating and Planning” by Mike Cohn

35. Planning Poker works • Multiple ‘expert opinions’ involved • Discussion brings up missing information and reduces the uncertainty and variability • Jr. staff learn from hearing Sr. staff explanations • Feeds into group accountability • Minimizes the time spent in estimation phase • It’s fun! • “Agile Estimating and Planning” by Mike Cohn

36. Developer Estimates • Expert Opinions • Utilize your most experienced staff to either create or review the estimates • Utilize proven & time measured estimates • Test out a process and measure the time it takes to complete a task • Are they including QA time? Integration time? Polish phase?

37. Caution – Developer Estimates • Every developer will estimate differently • You have to agree on the primary unit of time • Developer says: “5 days” • “Ideal days” - 40 hours uninterrupted? • 5 days, with normal interruptions • OR “bigger than a bread box” estimate

38. “There are infinitely many ways to lose a day... but not even one way to get one back.” “The Deadline” by Tom DeMarco

39. Topics Discussed • Scheduling Concepts • Predictability • Early Project Techniques • Estimating Techniques • Contingency Planning • Managing to your Schedule

40. Contingency Planning • Combination of risk, confidence level, efficiency, scope change, etc. • Hard to sell 30-40% contingency to management • Contingency time in your schedule is for Project Manager, NOT the developer. • Have the developer stick to their original estimates • Parkinson’s Law: Work expands to fill the time available for its completion.

41. Contingency: Confidence Level • Apply a confidence level to the estimate • High, Medium, Low • 5-4-3-2-1 System does this • Planning Poker utilizes group discussion • Do you have experience developing similar activities on previous projects? • What is the Level of Analysis? • Early guess, good estimate, or a detailed and thorough analysis

42. Risk Management • Manage your project by managing the risks • Embrace the risks! • Create a list of risks • Quantify the risks • Probability of occurrence and cost if it does • Prioritize them accordingly • Look for early warning signs! • Have an action plan ready for top 5 or 10

43. Contingency: Risk Management • Risk is inherent in each development activity, task or feature • Analyze the level of risk • Activities that are dependant on others have a higher risk • Quantify your risk tolerance on activity • 10%, 40%, 60%, … low, med, high • Calculate your risk contingency and add it to your schedule

44. Contingency: Scope Change • Plan for change during project • “Rate of discovery” • As you learn more about your project, you will discover new or forgotten requirements • Apply a change factor to your estimates • Apply a %change to each estimate • Adds to the contingency time

45. More Contingency… • Put vacation time directly into your schedule! • Plan for sick time in contingency • How many days are typical? • HR: Training, Performance Reviews, etc. • QA: based on your organization: • Put QA time as separate tasks OR • Allocate some contingency to QA & bug fixes

46. Duration vs. Effort • Duration factors in effective work time during the day. • Some studies have shown software developers doing only 2-3 hours task work in a day. • Effective work time decreases as developer seniority increases •  more interruptions and guidance to others • Knowing the team’s efficiency is good! • Don’t plan for 8 hours when you only get 2-3!

47. Time in a day 3 hours of lost productivity each day costs 4 man-months per year! So plan for it! Email, Phone calls, IM, Interruptions 3 hours Meetings, discussions Task Time: Productive Work on assigned tasks 5 hours

48. Example • Developer Estimate = 5 days • Confidence Level = Medium (add 15%) • Risk Analysis: High probability, Medium impact (add 15%) • Efficiency = 5 hours/day • What is your primary unit of time? • What do you put in your schedule?

49. Example Duration 5 days 3 days … … 2 days Estimate Contingency Start of Milestone End of Milestone

50. Topics Discussed • Scheduling Concepts • Predictability • Early Project Techniques • Estimating Techniques • Contingency Planning • Managing to your Schedule