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Negotiating uncertainties

Negotiating uncertainties

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Negotiating uncertainties

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  1. Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties in coastal zones with scarce freshwater resources Negotiating uncertainties Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino

  2. Contents • Objective PhD research • Theories Uncertainty • Set up SLR Experiment • Results SLR Experiment • Further steps… • Discussion

  3. Objective PhD-research • To map levels of (dis)agreement of (un)certainties regarding the freshwater availability for land use by • Qualitatively (analysis of cultural concepts), and • Quantitatively, with statistical analysis • Practical guidelines for negotiating (un)certainties in regional science-policy interfaces related to climate proofing • Southwest Delta of the Netherlands • To be identified

  4. Uncertainty philosophies in climate science Earth system Objective perspective Subjective perspective causality Precise Information Likelihood scale Confidence scale observations Level of agreement & evidence models Explanatory factors Scenario’s choice Human dimension Imprecise Information Swart e.a., 2008

  5. Set up Sea Level Rise Experiment (questionaire) • What will be the sea level rise in 2030/2100/2200? • What is the body length of Eddy Moors? (cm) • What is the average body length of the ESS group? • What is your own body length? (cm) • Average (cm) • Minimum (cm) • Maximum (cm) • Chance that you are wrong (%) • Explain your (expert) judgment

  6. Sea level rise 2030

  7. Sealevel rise experiment: expert judgment 0.25 Erik Aad Eddy 0.2 Arnold Hasse Herbert Rob 0.15 Probability density Catharien Judith Fokke 0.1 Rik Pavel Saskia 0.05 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 Sea level rise 2030(cm)

  8. Summed asym. PDF’s for 2030 (2 approaches) Arithmic mean = 20 cm ± 13 cm Triangulars Normal Distr. per respondent Min. Entropy approach Pmf1 = 13.7 cm, 51.5% Pmf2 = 29.4 cm, 23.6% Pmf3 = 35 cm, 11.8% Rik = 206, 6.7% Min. Entropy approach Pmf1 = 13.7 cm, 71% Pmf2 = 42 cm, 17% Pmf3 = 26 cm, 10% no Rik

  9. Overlap matrix sealevel rise 2030

  10. reality max min Comparison of all expert judgments

  11. Comparison body lengths estimations Eddy Judgment ESS-CC Judgment 186cm 180cm Minent Rik, 133cm, 6% Minent 183cm, 25% 177cm, 9% 183cm, 60% 177cm, 22% 176cm, 56% Eddies body length is easier to estimate than group length

  12. Further steps: • What is the (average) annual minimum amount of rainfall needed (m3 m-2 yr -1) to maintain freshwater supply for sector A,B in region Y under climate change? • Compare (expert) judgment regarding freshwater supply from natural resources in region Y under climate change for different stakeholder/expert groups • Comparison of regions • Method is also applicable to: (beyond scope PhD) • map (un(certainties) in the process of valuation of ecosystem services • Other ecosystem services

  13. Thank you Jeroen Veraart