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Changing Climate and Asian Monsoon

Changing Climate and Asian Monsoon. Rupa Kumar Kolli Chief, World Climate Applications & CLIPS Div. World Climate Programme Department World Meteorological Organization Geneva, Switzerland. Permanent Affiliation: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. Thanks to:.

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Changing Climate and Asian Monsoon

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  1. Changing Climate and Asian Monsoon Rupa Kumar Kolli Chief, World Climate Applications & CLIPS Div. World Climate Programme Department World Meteorological Organization Geneva, Switzerland Permanent Affiliation: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  2. Thanks to: • IPCC WG1 AR4 Team • B. Nyenzi, A. Delju, L. Malone, WMO • J. Revadekar, D. Kothawale, K. Kamala, S. Patwardhan, N. Deshpande, P. Kumar, A. Sahai, K. Krishna Kumar, IITM • R. Ashrit, NCMRWF • H. Douville, CNRM, Meteo France International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  3. Outline • Introduction • WMO’s Role in Climate Issues • IPCC WG1 AR4 Highlights • Climate Change and Indian Monsoon • Regional Climate Change Scenarios • Concluding Remarks International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  4. South Asia : Population Pressure on Resources • Total land area: 3% of global • Population (present): 21% of global • Population (projected-2025): 24% of global International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  5. Asian Monsoon in a Changing World • We know the earth’s atmosphere is undergoing unprecedented warming; • How does the monsoon behave in a warmer atmosphere-ocean coupled system ? • More atmospheric moisture  More intense hydrological cycle  More intense monsoon ? • More intense/frequent ENSO anomalies  More monsoon variability ? • Which are the sub-regions likely to be affected ? • Are land-use and land-cover changes associated with monsoon changes ? • How do we distinguish between natural and anthropogenic changes in monsoon patterns ? International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  6. How monsoon can change… • Perceptible changes in spatio-temporal patterns of rainfall • More/less frequent years of extreme seasonal anomalies • Late/early onset/withdrawal of the monsoon • Prolonged or shortened ‘break-monsoon’ periods • More/less frequent occurrences of heavy rainstorms • Changes in teleconnections (e.g., weakening of El Niño impact) • Changes in the predictability of monsoon International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  7. Modelling Monsoon Changes • Climate models are the best tools available to estimate future changes in the climatic components in a physically consistent manner. • Atmosphere-Ocean coupled models have made rapid strides over the past decade. • Global models are relatively better in reproducing large-scale monsoon features, but problems with regional details are yet to be overcome. • Human behaviour being the most unpredictable forcing factor for climate change, models can only be used for policy guidance, and NOT to PREDICT future changes. • It is essential to appreciate and understand the model strengths as well as the associated uncertainties to use the results in a policy-relevant perspective. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  8. WMO’s historical role in Climate Change… • 1976: First authoritative statement on the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the potential climate impacts. • 1979: First World Climate Conference. • 1980: Establishment of World Climate Programme (WCP) and World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). • 1988: Establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). • 1990: Second World Climate Conference called for the establishment of a climate convention. • Led to the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992; • Establishment of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  9. Integrated framework of WMO’s climate activities International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  10. Emerging Opportunities: Towards Improved Societal Response and Sustainable Development • Relevant climate information is expected to enhance policy and decision-making • Climate data products • Climate analysis and monitoring capabilities • Specialized climate forecast products – Must become user centric • Climate risk modelling tools – Critical for decision making • Disaster Risk Reduction: Early Warning Systems • There is significant diversity in supply and demand of climate information at national level • Needs, requirements and capabilities of providers • Needs and requirements of the users related to policy and decision-making International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  11. Climate Application • Climate information used for more than just curiosity value • Climate information that influences decision making • Climate information that is effectively converted into ‘climate knowledge’ • Unless the information provided positively influences at least one decision it has NO VALUE Thanks to: Holger Meinke International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  12. Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) • The term “climate services” refers to the delivery of climate information and predictions from the scientific sources to end-users • A service is a service only when it is used; our goal is to make people use climate services in real-world context • Climate information is just one of the elements in the decision making matrix • Databases of information gathered over many years; National Meteorological and Hydrological Services have great potential to exploit these resources to provide “effective” climate services. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  13. WMO proactively pursues climate applications • Espoo Conference (Living with Climate Variability and Change: July, 2006) highlights the role of users and decision makers in climate services. • Madrid Conference (Socio-economic Benefits of Meteorological Services: March, 2007) highlights the quantification of socio-economic benefits of meteorological services. • ‘World Climate Conference Three’ being planned in October 2009 (“Seasonal to Interannual and Decadal Climate Prediction”) • Based on a formal statement issued for the first time at the UNFCCC COP-12 in 2006, the role of WMO and NMHSs has been officially recognized in the “Nairobi Programme of Work on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change”. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  14. IPCC Assessments of Climate Change • 3 Working Groups • WG1: Scientific Basis • WG2: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability • WG3: Mitigation • Hundreds of scientists spread across the world participate. • Analyses of a large number of new models and new scenarios. • Policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive assessment. • Systematic peer review and Governmental review. • Fourth Assessment Report in the process of being released; Summary for Policy Makers for WG1 and WG2 already released. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  15. UNFCCC Precautionary Principle • The UNFCCC’s precautionary principle implies that “activities that threaten serious or irreversible damage can be restricted or even prohibited before there is absolute certainty about their effects”. • Indeed, under Article 3, the Convention calls for “precautionary measures” to combat climate change even if there is a lack of “full scientific certainty” regarding a cause & effect relationship. • This precautionary principle is considered to be a very momentous development in terms of international law as well as environmental activism International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  16. Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  17. Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change • Global average air temperature warming trend has accelerated (see, for example, the 100-year linear trends): • 1906-2005 : 0.74°C • 1901-2006 : 0.60°C • Average ocean temperature increased to depths of at least 3000 m – ocean has absorbed 80% of heat added (sea water expansion and sea-level rise) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  18. Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1)

  19. SST Land Land surface temperatures are rising faster than SSTs Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  20. Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought • Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. • The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - consistent with warming and increases of atmospheric water vapour • Drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. • More intense and longer droughts observed since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  21. Increases Decreases Landprecipitation is changing significantly over broad areas Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1)

  22. Proportion of heavy rainfall events: increasing in most land areas Regions of disproportionate changes in heavy (95th) and very heavy (99th) precipitation International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1)

  23. Observations Attribution All forcing • Observed changes are • consistent with expected responses to natural+human forcings • inconsistent with alternative explanations (e.g., natural only) Solar+volcanic Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  24. Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Continental warming likely shows a significant anthropogenic contribution over the past 50 years Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  25. Projections of Future Changes in Climate • Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would • cause further warming • induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century • Such changes would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  26. Projections of Future Changes in Climate • Best estimate for low emission scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high emission scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). • Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  27. Projections of Future Changes in Climate • Projected warming in 21st century expected to be • greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes; and • least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  28. Projections of Future Changes in Climate • Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes • Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1)

  29. IPCC AR4 Assessment of Monsoon Changes • An increase in precipitation is projected in the Asian monsoon (along with an increase in interannual season-averaged precipitation variability). • However, the uncertain role of aerosols in general, and carbon aerosols in particular, complicates the nature of future projections of monsoon precipitation, particularly in the Asian monsoon. • Precipitation in summer is likely to increase in northern Asia, East Asia, South Asia and most of Southeast Asia. • Most of the coupled models project a decrease in precipitation in DJF (the dry season), and an increase during the rest of the year. The median change, by the end of the 21st century, is –5% in DJF and 11% in JJA. • Although only 3 of the 21 models project a decrease in monsoon precipitation, there is a relatively larger spread in the projections. • There is very likely to be an increase in the frequency of intense precipitation events in parts of South Asia, and in East Asia. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  30. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  31. Long-term regional trends in Indian summer rainfall Small significant increasing/decreasing trends < +/- 0.1%/yr Trend in %/100yr % exp. variance International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  32. Long-term Trends in Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature(°C/100 yr) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  33. Temperature Trends over India International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  34. Sea Surface Temperature Trends in the Indian Ocean International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  35. Changing Frequency of Cyclonic Disturbances during the Monsoon Season International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  36. Changing ENSO-Monsoon relationship International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  37. Annual Cycles of South Asian Rainfall & Temperature for the 20th century in WCRP CMIP3 simulations International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  38. 20th Century Summer Monsoon Precipitation in WCRP CMIP3 Simulations International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  39. Observed and Model Ensemble Monsoon Rainfall Climatology(Though some individual model simulations of monsoon rainfall have strong biases, the ensemble mean has a reasonable portrayal of the major observed patterns) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  40. Precipitation Change Projection for Asia:SRES A1B (2080-2099) vs. 20C3M (1980-1999) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1)

  41. Robust findings on regional climate change for mean and extreme precipitation, drought and snow (JJA) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1)

  42. AOGCM Scenarios of all-India summer monsoon rainfall and mean annual surface temperature(simulations used in IPCC TAR) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  43. Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2 Scenario (High Emissions)based on WCRP CMIP3 Simulations(Anomalies relative to current period) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  44. ENSO-Monsoon Correlations – Observations & Modelling International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  45. Projected Changes in ENSO-Monsoon Relationshipsdue to Transient increase in Greenhouse Gas Concentrations (ECHAM4/OPYC3) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  46. CNRM-CCM: Temporal evolution of the transient response in the ENSO-monsoon correlation International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  47. Simulated Summer Monsoon Response in CNRM CCM/AGCM Time Slice experiments (Coupled vs Forced Experiments) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  48. Time Slice Experiments • Time-slice experiments reproduce the qualitative monsoon response of the coupled model, but there are substantial differences in the finer details of climate change projections, even when the oceanic boundary conditions are directly derived from a coupled scenario. • Ocean-atmospheric coupling and high-frequency SST feedback and variability seem to have a significant impact on the projected monsoon response to global warming. • High-resolution coupled GCM, at least incorporating a slab ocean model, is essential to regionalize the impact of global warming over the Indian subcontinent. • Tropical Pacific response to global warming seems to be a key factor in determining the Indian monsoon sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  49. Joint Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India (2001-2004) International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

  50. GCMs to Regional Adaptive Responses : Modelling Path International Conference on "Celebrating the Monsoon", 24-28 July 2007, Bangalore, India

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