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Macro and Housing Market Slides

Macro and Housing Market Slides. ASF Panel January 31, 2006 – Las Vegas, Nevada Mike Fratantoni Senior Director, Single Family Research and Economics Mortgage Bankers Association. Real Gross Domestic Product. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Payroll Employment Monthly Change.

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Macro and Housing Market Slides

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  1. Macro and Housing Market Slides ASF Panel January 31, 2006 – Las Vegas, Nevada Mike Fratantoni Senior Director, Single Family Research and Economics Mortgage Bankers Association

  2. Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

  3. Payroll EmploymentMonthly Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  4. Unemployment Rate Percent, Seasonally Adjusted Nov 5.0 Source: BLS Household Survey.

  5. Percent of US Long-term Securities Held Internationally Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

  6. Consumer Prices(PCE Chain Price Index) Source: Federal Reserve Board.

  7. Federal Funds Rate Percent Source: Federal Reserve Board.

  8. Corporate Baa minus 10-Year Treasury Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

  9. Low Grade Bonds minus 10-yr. Treasury Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

  10. Yield Spread:30-Year Fixed Mortgages and 10-Year Treasuries Basis Points Source: Federal Reserve Board.

  11. Yield Spread:30-Year Fixed Mortgages and 10-Year Treasuries Basis Points Source: Federal Reserve Board.

  12. State-level House Price Appreciation at State-Level: Q3 2005 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO).

  13. Employment vs. House Price Growth

  14. Population vs. HPG

  15. Home Purchase Loans for Second Homes and Investor Properties Source: LoanPerformance and HMDA.

  16. Growth in Condo and Single-Family Detached Prices at the National Level

  17. Housing Inventory/Sales Ratio Note: Months it would take to sell all available homes at the current pace of sales. Sources: Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors (NAR)

  18. Annual Mortgage Production Billions of Dollars Source: Mortgage Bankers Association and Department of Housing and Urban Development.

  19. 2002-5 Purchase Index: Four Week Moving Average, S.A. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

  20. 2002-05 Refinance Index: Four Week Moving Average, S.A. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

  21. Originations by Loan Type Source: MBA’s 2005 Mortgage Originations Survey

  22. Originations by amortization type Source: MBA’s 2005 Mortgage Originations Survey

  23. RMBS Issuance Market Share Source: Calculations based on data from Inside MBS & ABS.

  24. Alt-A Issuance by Documentation Source: Standard and Poor’s.

  25. Total Delinquencies:1979-Present Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

  26. Delinquency Rate vs. Employment Growth

  27. FRM vs. ARM Total Delinquency Rates: Q1 1992-Q2 2004

  28. Nominal Oil Price and Mortgage Delinquency Rate Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

  29. Homeowning Household Distribution by Mortgage Type

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