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Housing Market Slides: Economic Indicators & Mortgage Trends

Explore the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the housing market, including GDP, employment rates, mortgage trends, and more. Gain insights into the correlation between economic factors and housing trends.

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Housing Market Slides: Economic Indicators & Mortgage Trends

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  1. Macro and Housing Market Slides ASF Panel January 31, 2006 – Las Vegas, Nevada Mike Fratantoni Senior Director, Single Family Research and Economics Mortgage Bankers Association

  2. Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

  3. Payroll EmploymentMonthly Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  4. Unemployment Rate Percent, Seasonally Adjusted Nov 5.0 Source: BLS Household Survey.

  5. Percent of US Long-term Securities Held Internationally Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

  6. Consumer Prices(PCE Chain Price Index) Source: Federal Reserve Board.

  7. Federal Funds Rate Percent Source: Federal Reserve Board.

  8. Corporate Baa minus 10-Year Treasury Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

  9. Low Grade Bonds minus 10-yr. Treasury Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

  10. Yield Spread:30-Year Fixed Mortgages and 10-Year Treasuries Basis Points Source: Federal Reserve Board.

  11. Yield Spread:30-Year Fixed Mortgages and 10-Year Treasuries Basis Points Source: Federal Reserve Board.

  12. State-level House Price Appreciation at State-Level: Q3 2005 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO).

  13. Employment vs. House Price Growth

  14. Population vs. HPG

  15. Home Purchase Loans for Second Homes and Investor Properties Source: LoanPerformance and HMDA.

  16. Growth in Condo and Single-Family Detached Prices at the National Level

  17. Housing Inventory/Sales Ratio Note: Months it would take to sell all available homes at the current pace of sales. Sources: Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors (NAR)

  18. Annual Mortgage Production Billions of Dollars Source: Mortgage Bankers Association and Department of Housing and Urban Development.

  19. 2002-5 Purchase Index: Four Week Moving Average, S.A. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

  20. 2002-05 Refinance Index: Four Week Moving Average, S.A. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

  21. Originations by Loan Type Source: MBA’s 2005 Mortgage Originations Survey

  22. Originations by amortization type Source: MBA’s 2005 Mortgage Originations Survey

  23. RMBS Issuance Market Share Source: Calculations based on data from Inside MBS & ABS.

  24. Alt-A Issuance by Documentation Source: Standard and Poor’s.

  25. Total Delinquencies:1979-Present Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

  26. Delinquency Rate vs. Employment Growth

  27. FRM vs. ARM Total Delinquency Rates: Q1 1992-Q2 2004

  28. Nominal Oil Price and Mortgage Delinquency Rate Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

  29. Homeowning Household Distribution by Mortgage Type

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