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Creating Interactive Air Pollutant Forecast System

Develop an interactive atmosphere-air pollutant forecast system with consistent data management, efficient CPU costs, and simplified code for user-friendliness. Utilizing Earth Systems Modeling Framework for NCEP and GFS. Incorporating GOCART aerosol chemistry, smoke, dust, and ash dynamics and physics. Enhancing GFS atmospheric model component with ESMF compliance for improved forecasting accuracy.

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Creating Interactive Air Pollutant Forecast System

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  1. Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant Forecast System Jeff McQueen, Youhua Tang, Sarah Lu, Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim, Pius Lee and Marina Tsidulko Tom Black, Henry Juang, Zavisa Janjic, Mark Iredell, Geoff DiMego NWS/NCEP/EMC Ken Schere and Rohit Mathur NOAA/OAR/ARL & EPA Georg Grell and Steve Peckham NOAA/OAR/GSD Roland Draxler, Barbara Stunder and Ariel Stein NOAA/OAR/ARL Arlindo DaSilva, Mian Chin NASA/GSFC …

  2. Current Offline AQ Forecast Systems

  3. GEOS-GOCART Analysis AOD GFS-GOCART Dust concentration forecast

  4. In-Line Chem Advantages • Consistent: all transport done by meteorology model • Same vertical and horizontal coordinates (no horizontal and vertical interpolation) • Same physics parameterization for subgrid scale transport • No interpolation in time • Easy handling (Data management) • Most efficient (overall CPU costs)

  5. Earth Systems Modeling Framework at NCEP • NOAA is moving toward placing modeling systems under the multi-agency unified Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF) • The NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Model (NAM) NMM dynamics and physics have been incorporated into ESMF  National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) • Code simplicity and clarity are essential so that most users can understand code with relative ease

  6. GOCART aerosol chemistry, smoke, dust, ash Dynamics (1,2) Physics (1,2,3) Coupler ESMF* Compliant Global Component System (Iredell/Lu) Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) AM * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC) • GFS Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a reduced Gaussian grid model native Lorenz grid. • GFS currently requires ESMF 3.0.1; can evolve to 3.1. • GFS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, potentially convective transport, probably not scavenging.

  7. AM Dynamics (1,2) Physics (1,2,3) ESMF* Compliant RegionalSystem: NEMS Inline coupling Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) CB05/AERO-4 anthro, HYSPLIT/GOCART smoke, dust, ash emissions * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC) • NMMB Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a rotated lat-lon Arakowa B staggerd grid. • NEMS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, convective transport & scavenging, deposition.

  8. Planned Initial NEMSPollutant Options Emissions Component Pollutant Component Gas-PhaseAerosols Simplified NO3 GOCART/HYSPLIT Anthro, dust, smoke, sea-salt,volcanic ash Global Anthro: EDGAR, GEIA Regional Anthro: SMOKE w/ BEIS CB05, WCHEM AERO-4 anthro Natural: USFS/HMS Wild fires, Volcanic ash GOCART/ HYSPLIT smoke, dust, ash

  9. 2.5 days 5 days NMM-B Global InlineTracer Test Zavis Janjic NCEP/EMC

  10. NMM-B Regional InlineTracer Test Zavis Janjic & Youhua Tang, NCEP/EMC 48 96

  11. NEMS Pollutant Plans • Loose Coupled:Stand alone chemistry/dispersion model (1-2 years) • Put CMAQ/GOCART/HYSPLIT into ESMF compatible format • Write interface between atm-chem models as a separate component • NOAH LSM exports to drive chemistry biogenic emission & dry deposition • Radiation parameters exports to chemistry for photolysis computations • Tight Concurrent Coupled: Unified met-dispersion physics/dynamics (3-5 years) • Test tracer capability for mass consistency (NMMB, GFS) • Create AQ I/O Interface: anthropogenic sources, smoke, ash • Create independent CB05/AERO/GOCART/HYSPLIT subroutines (1-D) • Pollutant processes: chemistry if any, wet & dry deposition • Transfer species to dynamics coupler for advection, horizontal diffusion • Transfer species to physics: turbulence, convection routines for turbulent and convective mixing • Transfer aerosol output to radiation and cloud microphysics to allow aerosol feedbacks on meteorology

  12. Potential Additional Volcanic Ash Focus & Data Needs • USGS volcano types to improve emission rates • Improved plume height estimation • Hysplit ensemble minimization • satellite estimates • Leverage on-going global aerosol data assimilation developments for Volcanic ash • NCEP GSI 3-D VAR aerosol optical depth assimilation system • Phase I: Assimilate MODIS, GOES, OMI AOD products • Phase II:AVHRR, MISR, etc and direct radiance assimilation

  13. Operational Upgrades • Development phase (0-2 years) • Complete model development within NEMS with OAR & NASA and other research collaborators • Begin retrospective testing to compare results with current operational systems • Experimental testing ( 2-3 years) • Transition initial NEMS codes to NWS/NCEP operational center • Provide and evaluate real-time experimental forecasts to focus group of interested forecasters • Operational Implementation (3 years) • Modified model configuration based on subjective and quantitative evaluations w/ current operational system • Additional resources made available to support operational forecast timing requirements • Distribution through current VAAC pathways and possibly NDGD and AWIPS

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