Víctor Orlando Magaña Rueda Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM

1. Climate change and its expected impacts upon North America Climate Change in Mexico Víctor Orlando Magaña Rueda Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM Global Environmental Change: the challenge for North America 2030 Ottawa, Canada 25th June 2005

2. In recent decades, surface temperature is increasing in a coherent manner with the rest of the planet Sonora 1930-2000 Tamaulipas 1950-2000 Guanajuato Yucatán 1950-2000 BC Sur 1950-2000 Global Temperature Oaxaca 1950-2000 stations without urban effect

3. Climate change signals in temperature and precipitation extreme conditions Extreme precipitation Trends in consecutive rainy days Heat waves Trends in consecutive dry days Aguilar et al 2005

4. Changes in temperature (uncertainty range) in northern Mexico AR4 IPCC DT 2080-2099 under A1B Climate change scenarios (A1B) 1970-1999 Northern Mexico 2030 Probability of exceeding 1 std dev of present T by the 2030 Heat waves 2050 2080 40 45 50

5. Climate change scenarios in annual precipitation Pcp in Chihuahua Increase in intensity of extreme pcp events DPCP (mm) 2080-2099 Probability of change in Pcp larger than -15% by the 2030 % change in pcp

6. Changes in water balance central Mexico 1983 1998 Niño years Increases in T 1C PCP deficit  20% Wet conditions 2 months with no precip during the dry season increase the chances of forest fires Dry conditions NDVI

7. PRESENT (2004) BUSSINESS AS USUAL PLUS CLIMATE CHANGE(2030) BUSSINESS AS USUAL (2030)

8. Streamflow in the San Fernando River Risk of climate change in wetlands Runoff

9. What is the tendency in extreme precipitation events in southern Mexico? Three days pcp in Ocotepec, Chiapas, 960 mm Chiapas Changes in land use 1976-2000 Hazard vulnerability 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 The intensity of extreme precipitation during the last century in southern Mexico Tabasco Flooding, October 2007 Risk and disaster

10. The stability of slopes has dimnished due to land use change

11. Projected changes in runoff for the 2030 should consider land use change and sea level Percentage of pcp that runoffs with P = 100 mm of rain More runoff Sea level change

12. Present Tropical cyclone tracks 1979-1998 PRECIS Model 20-km Future Interest in learning more about extreme events 2080-2099

13. What´s the cost of no-adaptation? The economic and environmental costs of Wilma, Stan, Dean, Floods, El Niño 97, etc overpass the investment in prevention and recovery? Adaptation to Climate Change is an opportunity Mexican government actions in relation to Climate Change Mexicant endorsement of various Climate Change initiatives Emmissions inventory Mitigation initiatives Vulnerability studies to define adaptation strategies

14. Summary and conclusions • Need to estimate the risk of socio-ecosystems in view of climate change • More climate change scenarios region specific • Detection and attribution studies to show that climate change is taking place • Initiate adaptation projects