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Theme 2: Modeling, Data Assimilation and Advanced Computing

Theme 2: Modeling, Data Assimilation and Advanced Computing. Stephen S. Weygandt. Regional and Global Data Assimilation. Longstanding expertise in the development and application of innovative regional and global data assimilation techniques Rapid Update Cycle & Rapid Refresh

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Theme 2: Modeling, Data Assimilation and Advanced Computing

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  1. Theme 2: Modeling, Data Assimilationand Advanced Computing Stephen S. Weygandt Regional and Global Data Assimilation

  2. Longstanding expertise in the development and application of innovative regional and global data assimilation techniques • Rapid Update Cycle & Rapid Refresh • Local Analysis and Prediction System • Space-Time Mesoscale Analysis System • Global ensemble Kalman Filter assimilation Data Assimilation at ESRL ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  3. Each hour, blend observations and background to get the freshest forecast Data types used Rawinsondes Wind Profilers (405, 915 MHz) RASS virtual temperatures VAD winds (WSR-88D radars) Aircraft (ACARS, TAMDAR) Surface (METAR), Buoy, Mesonet Precipitable water (GPS, GOES, SSM/I) GOES cloud-top pressure/temp GOES cloud-drift winds Radar reflectivity, lightning Ship reports/dropsondes Rapid Update Cycle 1-hr fcst 1-hr fcst 1-hr fcst Back- ground Fields Analysis Fields 3DVAR 3DVAR Obs Obs Time (UTC) 11 12 13 ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  4. Expand high frequency updating concept to full North American domain Rapid Refresh • Use Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and WRF-ARW model • Hourly updating including use of novel observations (satellite clouds & moisture, lighting, air quality data) Rapid Refresh RUC ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  5. A convection resolving nest with radar assimilation to initialize thunderstorms High Resolution Rapid Refresh • Use Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and WRF-ARW model • Detailed forecasts from 3-km HRRR for NextGen, Warn on Forecast, and other applications Rapid Refresh HRRR ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  6. Highly portable analysis / forecast system with unique assimilation features • Detailed cloud analysis fuses multiple observation types • “Hot start” to initialize active precipitation areas • AWIPS data assimilation application for NWS offices • Applications for military, fire weather, hydrology Local Analysis and Prediction System ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  7. Sequential variational multi-grid analysis for surface and 3D applications Space-Time Mesoscale Analysis System • Utilizes LAPS data processing • Iterative solution obtains progressively more detail • Real-time surface application using mesonet data every 15 minutes for frontal detection • Applications for hurricane & severe weather analysis STMAS analysis of hurricane Katrina 950 mb wind speed and barbs ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  8. Placeholder – have material from Jeff Whitaker Global Ensemble Kalman Filter ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  9. Success in assimilation of remotely sensed observations (radar, satellite, lightning) and development of advanced techniques • Cloud and hydrometeor analysis • Initializing convective storms • Use of surface observations • Flow-dependent error covariances Data Assimilation at ESRL ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  10. Incremental adjustment based on information from multiple observation types Cloud and Hydrometeor Analysis adjustment to background observations data fusion ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  11. Digital Filter-based reflectivity assimilation greatly improves thunderstorm prediction Initializing Convective Storms RUC radar assimilation NSSL radar verification No radar assimilation Hi-Res Rapid Refresh 6-h forecasts 06 UTC 16 Aug. 2007 ESRL Physical Sciences Review

  12. Placeholder – have material from AMB/FAB Use of surface Observations ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  13. Placeholder – have material from Jeff Whitaker Flow-Dependent Error Covariances ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  14. Continued development in collaboration with NCEP, JCSDA, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, others on: • Advanced techniques (EnKF, hybrid approaches) • Specific observing systems, phenomena • (radar, satellite, surface – thunderstorms, clouds, hurricanes) • Foci: overall accuracy, specific applications (NextGen) Data Assimilation at ESRL ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  15. Continued development in collaboration with NCEP, JCSDA, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, others on: • Advanced techniques (EnKF, hybrid approaches) • Specific observing systems, phenomena • (radar, satellite, surface – thunderstorms, clouds, hurricanes) • Foci: overall accuracy, specific applications (NextGen) Data Assimilation at ESRL DA critical for successful prediction… ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

  16. Continued development in collaboration with NCEP, JCSDA, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, others on: • Advanced techniques (EnKF, hybrid approaches) • Specific observing systems, phenomena • (radar, satellite, surface – thunderstorms, clouds, hurricanes) • Foci: overall accuracy, specific applications (NextGen) Data Assimilation at ESRL DA critical for successful prediction… … from global to local scales ESRL Physical Sciences Review 9-12 March 2009

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