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Developing Synthetic Temperature-Correlated Wind Generation Data

The meeting on January 29, 2010, focused on integrating wind uncertainty into adequacy analysis. The objective is to develop a wind-generation data series that mirrors the 70-year streamflow record. Two primary approaches were explored: a statistical method (Moving Block Bootstrap) and historical meteorology (atmospheric modeling). The statistical method is preferred for creating a temperature-correlated wind dataset. This method relies on historical correlations between wind generation and temperature, and aims to enhance the robustness of the GENESYS simulation to better predict future resource dispatch.

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Developing Synthetic Temperature-Correlated Wind Generation Data

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  1. Developing SyntheticTemperature-CorrelatedWind Generation Data Steering Committee MeetingJanuary 29, 2010

  2. Integrating Wind Uncertainty intoAdequacy Analysis • Objective: Develop a wind-generation data series analogous to the 70-year streamflow record • Two approaches have been tested: • Statistical (Moving Block Bootstrap) • Historical Meteorology (Atmospheric Modeling) • Both approaches have pros and cons but the statistical method is being used Steering Committee

  3. Modeling Uncertainties • GENESYS simulates resource dispatch on an hourly basis over many different potential futures • Random variables include: • Hydro conditions (70-year natural streamflow record) • Thermal operation (forced outages) • Temperature (results in load variation) • Wind generation variation • Historical data indicates that wind generation is correlated with temperature • Monthly average streamflows are assumed to be independent of monthly average temperature Steering Committee

  4. Statistical Approach for Wind • To develop a temperature-correlated wind data set, a statistical method is used (kNN bootstrap) • This method incorporates the dependence that has been observed in the historical record into the synthetic wind data set • Creates a larger wind-generation data set by using temperature records that predate the wind fleet • Keeps the statistical correlation of wind and load in developing a synthetic wind record Steering Committee

  5. Status Update • BPA has run a study using hourly load center temperature data (limited data set). • The method is being reworked to use daily load center temperature max and min observations to increase data range • The synthetic temperature-correlated wind data set for Genesys use should be available by the end of April. Steering Committee

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