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ISO New England Environmental Advisory Group (EAG) Teleconference

ISO New England Environmental Advisory Group (EAG) Teleconference. February 12, 2010 9:30 – 11:30 AM. Agenda. Introductions and Administrative. Jim Platts. 2010 EAG Teleconferences/Meetings. Proposed Dates Apr il16 June 11 July 9 October 8 December 17

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ISO New England Environmental Advisory Group (EAG) Teleconference

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  1. ISO New England Environmental Advisory Group (EAG) Teleconference February 12, 2010 9:30 – 11:30 AM

  2. Agenda

  3. Introductions and Administrative Jim Platts

  4. 2010 EAG Teleconferences/Meetings • Proposed Dates • Apr il16 • June 11 • July 9 • October 8 • December 17 • Please register for each meeting through ISO TEN • Meetings will be on the ISO-NE calendar with the registration link to ISO TEN: https://isone.cyberu.com/client/isone/default.aspx

  5. RSP10 PAC Meetings • The following are planned PAC meetings: • February 24 –RSP Planning Process Meeting • March 18 –Transmission Update, RSP Project Listing • April 27 –Resource Issues • May 25–Environmental Issues • Environmental regulations • RPS and Queue resources • Emissions report • Regional Energy Efficiency Initiative (REEI) • Solar developments • Watch for changes to the PAC agendas

  6. ISO-NE Peak-Day NOx Emissions Analysis (Continued from prior EAG meetings) J. Platts W. Coste

  7. Disclaimer • ISO considers all the work done on the peak-day NOx analysis and the results presented to the EAG still preliminary. • While these preliminary results seem intuitively correct they are subject to further internal review and documentation of the processes used.

  8. NOx Rates Used in the Analysis • The analysis used proprietary ISO NOx rates for generating units in the analysis of the 500 MW generation decrement at peak • EAG members requested to review these rates • ISO has developed weighted average rates for generation and fuel combinations of units in lb/mmBtu and lb/MWh. These are shown on the following two slides

  9. ISO NE Weighted Average NOx Rates by Generation and Fuel Types – lb/mmBtu

  10. ISO NE Weighted Average NOx Rates by Generation and Fuel Types – lb/MWh

  11. Review of Purpose and Chronology • Purpose • Examine NOx emissions on ISO-NE’s historic peak load days to provide a better basis for estimating future NOx emission reductions from energy efficiency during peak load periods • Chronology • June 12th EAG meeting: ISO-NE proposed to analyze the five highest peak load days for the years 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 • August 14th EAG meeting: Presented some preliminary results based on ISO proprietary generator NOx rates • October 16th EAG meeting: Presented preliminary results for all 20 days based on EPA data and ISO data, for generators not in EPA database • December 4th EAG meeting: Presented hourly incremental NOx rates and hourly rates for 500 MW load decrements using ISO data

  12. Today Presenting Final Preliminary Results • Using only ISO NOx emission rate data • At December EAG meeting provided: • Peak hourly NOx rates for a theoretical 500 MW generation decrement for all 20 peak days • Top 500 MW excluding conventional and pumped hydro bids • EAG requested fuel types comprising 500 MW • At this meeting ISO is providing new results: • Energy production by fuel and technology types comprising 500 MW each hour • Corresponding NOxemissions by technology and fuel type

  13. Hourly NOx Emission Rates for a 500 MW Generation Decrement from Peak Excluding Hydro Bids

  14. July 27, 2005 – Fuels and NOx Emissions for 500 MW Generation Decrement Blue is ST-RFO, Light blue is MSW-ST, Mauve is NG-ST, Aqua is FO2-GT, Maroon is JF-GT, Rust is FO2-IC, Green is Kero-GT

  15. August 2, 2006 – Fuels and NOx Emissions for 500 MW Decrement Blue is ST-RFO, Light blue is MSW-ST, Mauve is NG-ST, Aqua is FO2-GT, Maroon is JF-GT, Rust is FO2-IC, Green is Kero-GT

  16. August 2, 2007 – Fuel and NOx Emissions Sources for 500 MW Decrement Blue is ST-RFO, Light blue is MSW-ST, Mauve is NG-ST, Aqua is FO2-GT, Maroon is JF-GT, Rust is FO2-IC, Green is Kero-GT

  17. July 8, 2008 – Fuel Sources and NOx Emissions for 500 MW Decrement Blue is ST-RFO, Light blue is MSW-ST, Mauve is NG-ST, Aqua is FO2-GT, Maroon is JF-GT, Rust is FO2-IC, Green is Kero-GT

  18. Weighted Average NOx Rates by Generation and Fuel Most Used for Peak 500 MW – lb/MWh Fuels most used

  19. Summary of Key results from Analysis

  20. New England 20 Peak Days’ Hourly NOx Emissions

  21. New England 20 Peak Days’ Cumulative Daily NOx Emissions Peak Days: Yr/Mo/Day

  22. New England Hourly NOx Emissions from Power System Generators vs. System Generation Output August 2, 2006 – Highest Peak July 18, 2008 – Lowest Peak

  23. 8/02/2006 – NE Hourly NOx Emissions from Power System Generators Hourly System NOx vs. Generation Output Hourly Incremental NOx Rate

  24. Hourly NOx Emissions vs. System Generation at Peak NOx Hour for Peak-Load Day Peak Hourly NOx Rate = 4 lbs/MW/hr (slope of line)

  25. Daily NOx Emissions Rate vs. Daily Peak System Generation for Peak-Load Day Daily NOx Rate = 50 lbs/MW/day (slope of line)

  26. Hourly NOx Emission Rates for a 500 MW Generation Decrement from Peak Excluding Hydro Bids

  27. Weighted Average NOx Rates by Generation and Fuel Types Most Used on Peak – lb/MWh Fuels most used

  28. Summary • Peak hour NOx emissions ranged from 6 to 13 tons over the 20 highest peak-load days for 2005-2008 • For the all-time peak load day (8/2/06), at the peak hour, operating emergency generators added approximately 3 tons, or 12 total tons for the entire day • Cumulative daily NOx emissions for each of the 20 peak days ranged from 122 to 228 tons, including emergency generators that operated on the all-time peak day • Daily peak hour NOx rates and average daily hour are 4 lb/MW/hr and 50 lb/MW/day, respectively • Generation and fuels most used on peak are • Steam with residual oil • Gas turbine with No. 2 oil and jet fuel • Combined cycle with natural gas

  29. Open Issues for Regulatory Agencies • Are these results useful? If so how should they be used by regulators? • Which NOx rate will be used: the average peak-hour rate or 24 hour average? • Should the New England state agencies apply these rates to determine reductions in generator NOx emissions from energy efficiency? • Will EPA accept NOx reductions for SIP planning and HEDD based on this peak day NOx analysis?

  30. Questions

  31. Stakeholder Process for Submitting Economic Study Requests PAC Meeting January 21, 2010 Michael I. Henderson Director, Regional Planning and Coordination

  32. Background

  33. Objectives of “Attachment K” Analysis • Satisfy Tariff requirements • Perform a Needs Assessment of economic considerations in response to stakeholder requests • Provide forum for stakeholder review of the impact of alternative future system scenarios • Include economic evaluations • Supplement with environmental emissions analysis • Consider potential economic benefits of relieving transmission constraints • Also shows benefits of developing resources in alternative locations • Similar to “what-if” framework of Scenario Analysis • Not an introduction to a specific Market Efficiency Transmission Upgrade (METU), e.g., “Attachment N” project • Provides information to stakeholders

  34. Needs Assessments for Economic Considerations • Part 4.1.b of Attachment K states that “the ISO’s stakeholders may request the ISO to initiate a Needs Assessment to evaluate potential regulated transmission solutions or other participant-developed market solutions investments that could result in (i) a net reduction in total production cost to supply system load based on the factors specified in Attachment N of this OATT, (ii) less congestion, or (iii) the integration of new resources and load on an aggregate regional basis (Economic Studies)”

  35. Submittal and Consideration of Needs Assessment Requests • Requests for Economic Studies by stakeholders must be submitted by April 1 each year • These will be posted to the ISO website • The ISO may add its own proposals • The ISO shall develop a rough scope of work and cost estimate for all requested studies • The ISO shall develop a preliminary prioritization based on perceived benefits • By May 1 of each year, a PAC meeting shall be held at which Economic Study proponents provide an explanation of their request

  36. Submittal and Consideration of Needs Assessment Requests, cont. • By June 1 of each year, the PAC shall meet, discuss and prioritize up to 3 Economic Studies to be performed • The costs will be recovered under the Tariff • ISO will present a straw priority list • Additional meetings may be held to discuss the prioritization or substance of the studies • If agreement is not reached on prioritization or study substance, then the dispute resolution provisions may be invoked by any PAC member by August 30 • The ISO will issue a notice to the PAC detailing the prioritization of the Economic Studies • There are no deadlines for completion of studies within the Tariff

  37. Evaluation of Proposed Solutions • Possible next step • Not part of “Economic Studies” • Once a “need” has been identified through a Needs Assessment, the ISO evaluates proposed solutions (Part 4.2 of Attachment K) • Solutions to a “need” may be market-driven or Regulated Transmission Solutions • Market solutions will be reflected in updated Needs Assessments and the RSP as described • Proposed Regulated Transmission Solutions are developed or evaluated through Solutions Studies, and approved and classified as Reliability Transmission Upgrades or Market Efficiency Transmission Upgrades under Attachment N as appropriate

  38. Process for SubmittingEconomic Study Requests

  39. Content of Economic Study Requests • Indicate suggested general location and type of resource expansion along with relaxed transmission constraints • Example: Add 5,000 MW of wind injected into Orrington and • Identify needed increase in transmission constraints to relieve all congestion • Alternatively, suggest increase of specific transmission limits • Example: Increase Orrington – Boston interface by 4,800 MW • Details of a specifically proposed transmission project aren’t required, but can be provided • Energy Efficiency • Can be captured by simulating several years • Example: stakeholders may assume load stays at the 2009 level • Specific load reductions may be postulated

  40. Process for Submitting Economic Study Requests • All communications to ISO should be made to PACMatters@ISO-NE.com • Submit requests by April 1, 2010 • To better coordinate presentations, ISO will advise all requestors of all received requests and the time allotted for each presentation by April 8 • Presentation materials due to ISO by April 15 • Requestor presentations to be held at the April 27 PAC meeting • Draft ISO-NE Scope of Work for Economic Studies will be discussed at the May 25 PAC meeting

  41. Economic Studies – Samples • Completed Economic Studies • 2007 Study – 10-year study of base system resource expansion and sensitivity analyses to fuel prices and demand resources • 2008 Study – 10-year study of postulated various expansions of resource additions and relief of transmission constraints • 2009 Governors’ Request – Year 2030 analysis of large-scale integration of renewable resources in the 20-year timeframe • Ongoing Economic Studies • 2009 Request – Year 2013 interregional analysis being conducted by the Joint ISO/RTO Planning Committee (JIPC) showing the effects of increasing the transfer capability between New York and New England

  42. Economic Study Metrics • Production Costs • Load Serving Entity Energy Expenses • Congestion • Interface Flow Duration Curves • Fuel Use • Environmental Air Emissions

  43. Questions

  44. Environmental Issues Affecting Three ISO/RTOs(Based on presentation by Peter Carney of NYISO to IPSAC meeting) Jim Platts

  45. Purpose • Review key federal and regional environmental developments affecting some or all of the regions served by the PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE

  46. Summary • U.S. EPA developments in air and water regulations are likely to keep reducing power plants’ air and water environmental impacts over the next ten years • The potential effect of these developments could be increased operating costs for fossil and nuclear plants • This could change the capacity mix, interregional dispatch and transmission flows that could drive the need for transmission upgrades

  47. Issues to be Covered • Air regulations: Attainment of criteria pollutant standards • Ozone • Sulfur dioxide (SO2) • Particulate matter (PM) • Regional haze • Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) replacement • Mercury • Technology standards: MACT*, RACT* and BACT* • CO2– EPA finding and rules, cap and trade • Open-cycle cooling water (CWA Section 316b) • Coal combustion by-products *Maximum Achievable Control Technology, Reasonable Achievable Control Technology and Best Available Control Technology

  48. Source: EPA Region 1 Presentation by Dave Conroy to CT DEP, 9/9/09

  49. Source: EPA Region 1 Presentation by Dave Conroy to CT DEP, 11/13/09

  50. Ozone Non-Attainment in the Northeast Data is in parts per billion (ppb)

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