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USA Solar Market

Solar Market Business Management SS ‘12. USA Solar Market. Jesús Martínez Cantú. Agenda. Overview (Key facts) Electricity Energy Sector Infrastructure Electricity Prices and Solar radiation Levelized Cost of Electricity Grid Parity Projection

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USA Solar Market

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  1. Solar Market Business Management SS ‘12 USA Solar Market JesúsMartínezCantú

  2. Agenda • Overview (Key facts) • Electricity Energy Sector Infrastructure • Electricity Prices and Solar radiation • Levelized Cost of Electricity • Grid Parity Projection • Political Framework • Conclusion Solar Market conosurconsultores.com

  3. Overview (Key facts) • Federal constitutional republic (50 States and 1 Federal district) • 9.8 million km^2 area (25 times Germany) and 312 million people (3rd) • GDP 2011; US$ 15.1 trill. (1st), China US$ 7 trill. (2nd) . (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur) • Energy Consumption 2011; 97.5 quad. BTU28.5 PWh (10^15)(1st ), more than 7 times Germany consumption (*) Data 2010 wikipedia • Total energyconsumptionincreases 12 % by 2035. (0.5% per year) US EIA http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/major_energy_sources_and_users.cfm http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/renewable_electricity.cfm

  4. Electricity Energy Sector infrastructure (*) 2010 • Differents sources to generate electricity No national Grid to transmission • 3 grids operating in 48 contiguous states, 1 grid in Alaska and 1 grid in Hawaii. • In addition throughout the year consumption varies, therefore prices vary according location. http://www.eia.gov/state/ http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/power_grid.cfm http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4270

  5. Electricity prices 2011 Avg Vs. Radiation (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

  6. Levelized cost of Electricity Solar System (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur) • Assumptionsfrom RNEL 2011 study. (c-Si Modules) http://www.osti.gov/bridge • 25 % overnight capital costreductiondue modules price vs. 2011 study. http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/ • LCOE NREL simple calculatorused. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html

  7. GridParityiscoming… (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur) Assuming 10 % system price reduction by learning curve in PV. Approx. yearly trend increases electricity price by 2.65 % Residential, 1.89% Industrial and 0.5 % Utility.

  8. Political Framework • Adoption of electric retail choice programs that allow end-use customers to buy electricity from competitive retail suppliers. • State Incentives: California Solar Initiative. (http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/index.php) • States Policies  SREC’s on states with Renewable Portfolio Standard. • Federal Incentives: Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) . 30 % tax credit from renewable equipment http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=6250 http://dsireusa.org

  9. Projection PV and CSP (Utility) www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf

  10. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)Sunshotiniative • Reducing Solar Technology Costs • Increasing PV solar cell efficiency, • Reducing production costs • Opening new markets for solar energy • Reducing Solar Grid Integration Costs • GridPlanning • Reliability • Accelerating Deployment solar technologies

  11. Conclusion • US Solar Market is increasing • Fast due approaching grid parity. • RPS in states and federal incentives facilitate deployment. • Potentialtobebiggest solar market in theworld. (Resources and demand). • Iftrendsprevailthepercentage of Solar plantsgeneratingelectricity at utility-scalewillbehigherthan 16 % as projected in 2035 by US EIA. (http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf) • Betterestimation of LCOE shouldbecustomizedtothelocation. (statecharacteristics, CP, more detailed overnight cost, wages, etc.)

  12. Thanksforyourattention!! Questions??? laiaatienza.com

  13. References • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) • http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/reports.cfm?t=182 • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_and_production • http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/power_grid.cfm • http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/ • http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4270 • http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html • http://www.osti.gov/bridge • http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser • http://dsireusa.org/ • http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=EARLY2012&subject=2-EARLY2012&table=2-EARLY2012&region=1-0&cases=early2012-d121011b • http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf • http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf • http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ • http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/csi/index.php

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