Developing Baseline Socioeconomic Scenarios for V&A Assessments

1. Developing Baseline Socioeconomic Scenarios for V&A Assessments Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries 20~24 March 2006 Jakarta, Indonesia Xianfu Lu National Communications Support Programme (NCSP), UNDP-UNEP-GEF Xianfu.lu@undp.org

2. Introduction: what are baseline socio-economic scenarios and why do we need them? Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: how to develop socioeconomic scenarios? Guidance documents, and data sources Examples In the next 45 minutes or so…

3. Socio-economic scenarios are plausible, and often simplified, representation of future state of socio-economic parameters, i.e., they are neither predictions nor forecasts; Baseline socio-economic scenarios are scenarios that do not account for the effects of climate change. Introduction: what are baseline socio-economic scenarios?

4. Increasing demand for policy relevant information has led to the growing consideration of multiple stressors and drivers in V&A assessments. Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic scenarios?

5. V&A assessments suffer from serious weakness if by default they assume that the projected climates will take place in a world with a society and economy similar to today. Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic scenarios? (continued)

6. Features about the socio-economic future that have a bearing on our response to climate change. They affect: Availability of resources to cope with climate change The administrative quality of future governments Ability of special interest groups to influence the public agenda Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic scenarios? (continued)

7. Interactions between society/economy and climate impacts and adaptation is that socio-economic developments can make the world more or less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic scenarios? (continued)

8. Flooding events may be worse if there is a larger population living on the flood plain as a result of planning decisions. The effect of climate change on crop yields will depend on how many farmers have planted the crops, whether their farm income is dependent on that crop, in turn depending on agricultural subsidies, access to technology and so on. Some technological developments, such as improvement of weather forecasting, may better enable precautions to be taken to diminish vulnerability to extreme weather events. Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic scenarios? (continued)

9. Flooding events may be worse if there is a larger population living on the flood plain as a result of planning decisions. The effect of climate change on crop yields will depend on how many farmers have planted the crops, whether their farm income is dependent on that crop, in turn depending on agricultural subsidies, access to technology and so on. Some technological developments, such as improvement of weather forecasting, may better enable precautions to be taken to diminish vulnerability to extreme weather events. Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic scenarios? (continued)

10. If you think the task of developing climate scenarios is difficult, the job of generating socio-economic scenarios is even more complex. Due to the fast changing, and poorly understood interactions of factors operating within socio-economic systems, it is not possible to construct socio-economic scenarios on the same long-term time-scales as climate scenarios. Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios

11. Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios– general approach NOT every scenario exercise has to go through all the steps. Efforts could be saved by making use of existing elements of scenarios.

12. Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: identify drivers • Key factors that define impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity; • Often not directly measurable (e.g., social wellbeing, quality of governance, etc.) • Wide stakeholder participation required

13. Qualitative and holistic portraits of the general structure and values of society; Conditions resulting from economic and social policies, human reproduction, occupations, and use of energy and technology; Major national and regional development policy and plans to be consulted; Stakeholders to be widely engaged Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: develop narrative storylines

14. Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: identify indicators • Most relevant measurements of the key factors that define impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity; • Indicators to be quantifiable; • Wide stakeholder participation required

15. Qualitative and holistic portraits of the general structure and values of society; Conditions resulting from economic and social policies, human reproduction, occupations, and use of energy and technology; Major national and regional development policy and plans to be consulted; Stakeholders to be widely engaged Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: develop narrative storylines

16. Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: project indicators/parametres • Model simulation (e.g., SRES); • Analogues; • Expert judgement

17. Baselines for Bangladesh

18. Vulnerability Indicators

19. Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: criteria • Relevance - applicable to public and private sector decision-making • Consistency- based on coherent assumptions; • Credibility - not over-estimating the rate of change; • Transparency – explicit account of assumptions

20. IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) makes projections about emissions of GHGs and aerosols up to 2100 for the purpose of modelling climate change; The world divided into four macro-regions (ALM, ASIA, REF, OECD90); Six modelling teams (6 modelling teams: AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM) Open process; “Storyline-and-Simulation” approach Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios

21. Scoping and planning; Identify drivers; Formulate narrative storylines; Quantify storylines using models; “Open” review process Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the process

22. No ‘business as usual’ scenario No probabilities ascribed No climate policy assumed No adaptation assumed Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – guiding principles

23. Population growth GDP growth Energy and technological change Land-use change Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – principal drivers

24. Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the storylines Four quadrants along two axes • Governance (autonomy vs interdependence); • Aspiration/value (consumerism vs. community)

25. Four distinctive future worlds depicted by the four storylines… Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the storylines

26. A1: rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid adoption of new technologies, convergence of regions, capacity building, increased social interaction, reduced region differences in per capita income; A2: heterogenous world, self-reliance and local identities preserved, high population growth, regionally-specific economic growth, fragmented economic and technological development Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the storylines

27. B1: convergent world with low population growth, transition to service and info economy, resource productivity improvements, clean technology towards global solutions B2: Divergent world with emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, moderate population growth, intermediate levels of economic growth, less rapid technological change Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the storylines

28. Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the scenarios

29. Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the scenarios

30. Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment in water resource sector (Indonesia) • Key drivers: level of water demand in the 21st Century • Storylines: SRES A2 and B2 • Indicators: • population change rate; • GDP growth rate • level of development of domestic water resources • Water withdrawal per capita

31. Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment in water resource sector (Indonesia) Step 1: Derive estimates of population and GDP changes from SRES (or other sources) in relation to base year (1990)

32. Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment in water resource sector (Indonesia) Step 2: Estimate level of development of domestic water resources

33. Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment in water resource sector (Indonesia) Step 3: Estimate annual water withdrawal

34. Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment in water resource sector (Indonesia) Step 4: Estimate per capita water withdrawal

35. Guidance documents • Guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment(http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/guidelines/ggm_no1_v1_12-1999.pdf) • Developing Socio-Economic Scenarios for Use in Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments(http://www.undp.org/cc/pdf/publications%20and%20flyers/SES_draft.pdf) • Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment: a guide to their use in the UK (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/pub_dets.asp?ID=34) • Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm)

36. Data Sources: The World Bank

37. Data Sources: The World Bank

38. Data Sources: UNDP (Human Development Report)

39. Data Sources: IPCC Data Distribution Centre

40. Remember that creating baseline scenarios is NOT an end in itself; So, Do NOT get consumed by them; Perhaps a simple comparison exercise between constant socioeconomic conditions and a changing socioeconomic future can provide much insight; Try to focus on the socioeconomic variables to which the vulnerability of interest is most sensitive. A Few Concluding Thoughts