Sustainable Energy

1. Jim SkeaResearch DirectorUK Energy Research CentreNorth-East Forum on Climate Change WorkshopNorthumbria University8 October 2008 Sustainable Energy

2. 1000 Years of CO2 and Global Warming CO2 Concentrations Temperature (Northern Hemisphere)

3. Today’s CO2 Concentration After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns 600 500 400 300 280 260 240 CO2 Concentration CO2 [ppmv] 220 200 180 Temp. in F° 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (yr BP)

4. Projected Impacts of Climate Change Source: Stern Review

5. Illustrative emissions paths to stabilise at 550ppm CO2 Source: Meinshausen (2006)

6. UK carbon policy framework

7. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) will advise government on how the UK can meet its emissions reductions goals By 1 December 2008… …taking into account a range of factors… Advise on 15 years of carbon budgets …the Committee needs to find the optimal emissions reduction pathway to 2050 • Scientific knowledge • Technology • Economic circumstances • Fiscal circumstances • Social circumstances • Energy policy • International circumstances 2008-2012 CO2 2013-2017 2018-2022 60%? Advise on use of trading & credits Advise on 2010 target’s feasibility 1990 2050 Review of the 2050 60% reduction target

8. Generic options for reducing CO2 nuclear efficiency fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage renewables

9. Energy Efficiency vast range of technical approaches… buildings (residential and commercial) appliances cars aircraft ships industrial processes in many areas, the challenge is encouraging the uptake of existing technology, not so much developing new technologies but new technology has promise - especially in surface transport the “rebound effect” – tendency to use growing income on energy intensive things at the margin (gadgets, flights)

10. Nuclear power • different perceptions in different countries • operating performance and construction record has improved in last decade……. especially in Far East • push in several countries to speed up planning and regulatory approval • progress on radioactive waste • a price for carbon helps nuclear • economics and finance critical • not just cost but risk – nuclear is a riskier investment than gas in a liberalised market

11. Carbon capture and storage Peterhead power station, Scotland Source: BP

12. UK carbon capture and storage competition • Post-combustion technology (retrofittable) • Full chain: capture, transportation, storage • 90% capture on 300-400 MW capacity • Demonstration plant in place by 2014 • Commercial deployment by 2020? • Four pre-qualified bidders • BP Alternative Energy International • E.ON UK/Arup/EPRI/Fluor/MHI/Penspen/Tullow Oil • Peel Power/Dong Energ/Senergy Alternative Energy/Atkins-Boreas/Mott MacDonald • Scottish Power Generation/Marathon Oil/Aker Clean Carbon/Aker Solutions

13. Renewables

14. Growth of renewable electricity in Europe Source: International Energy Agency

15. Potential scenario to reach 15% renewable energy by 2020 in UK

16. But new sources of hydrocarbons….

18. The lifestyle issue….

20. Emission Reduction Options: BLUE Map Scenario Source: International Energy Agency

21. Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for CO2 Reduction Source: International Energy Agency

22. Recent trends in UK energy R&D spend Source: International Energy Agency

23. Funding for UK Energy R&D is Rising 350 300 250 200 $M (2005 prices and exchange rates) 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2000 2001 2002 2007 (planned) 2008 (planned) 2006 (budgeted) Source: IEA (2000-2005)

24. Recent trends in UK renewable energy R&D

25. UK Energy RDD&D support

26. Research Councils Energy Programme ~£90m pa UKERC SUPERGEN (Sustainable Power Generation) initiative Towards a Sustainable Energy Economy (TSEC) Programme Carbon Vision Programme (mainly buildings) Fusion Programme Research Training and Capacity Building

27. SUPERGEN RENEWABLES Marine Energy Wind energy Photovoltaic materials Excitonic solar cells Biomass, biofuels and energy crops HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS Hydrogen energy Fuel cells Biofuel cells NETWORKS Future network technologies Highly distributed power systems Energy infrastructure OTHER Energy storage Conventional power plant lifetime extension

28. Towards a Sustainable Energy Programme CROSS-DISCIPLINARY CONSORTIA BIOSYS (bio-energy systems) Carbon Capture and Storage NUCLEAR Keeping the nuclear option open (KNOO) Sustainable nuclear SOCIAL SCIENCE GROUPS RESOLVE - Research on lifestyles, values and energy consumption (Surrey) Electricity Policy Research Group (Cambridge) Transitions to a sustainable energy economy (SPRU, Sussex)

29. NERC Sustainable Use of Natural Resources Theme: Four challenges • Extending the Resource Base - reducing environmental footprint of fossil fuel and mineral use and identifying novel fuel sources; • Meeting the Renewables Challenge - optimising environmental gains from extraction of energy from renewable sources; • Water-Soil Life Support System - integrated approaches to sustain and improve water and soil quality; • Valuing Environmental Services - innovative methods to achieve parity for environmental services alongside economic indicators

30. NERC Sustainable Use of Natural Resources Theme: Three priority areas • Predicting the environmental outcomes of natural resource use for renewable and non-renewables energy using a systems approach • Developing an integrated water-soil life support system • Bringing environmental valuation into mainstream thinking

31. What Is UKERC? The UK Energy Research Centre is the focal point for UK research on sustainable energy. It takes an independent, whole-system approach, drawing on engineering economics physical environmental social sciences. Phase I: 2004-2009 Phase II: 2009-2014

32. UKERC Structure: Phase 1 2004-2009 Supervisory Board John Loughhead, executive director Technology Policy and Assessment Professor Jim Skea, research director Advisory Board The Meeting Place Functions Research Atlas Demand Reduction Energy Infrastructure and Supply Future Sources Of Energy Energy Systems And Modelling Environmental Sustainability Materials for Advanced Energy Systems National Energy Research Network Research themes

33. Advisory Board Graeme Sweeney, CEO, Shell Renewables Doug Parr, chief scientist Henry Derwent, director Duncan Botting, VP Mike Hulme, executive director Philip Sellwood, chief executive Allan Asher, CEO Nick Hartley, senior advisor Diane Urge-Vorsatz, director, PhD programme, Central European University Richard Bellingham, head of energy policy Tom Delay, CEO, Carbon Trust Chris Anastasi, senior environmental advisor Prof Jane Summerton, Linkoping University Anthony White, director Arnulf Grubler, snr research scholar, Int’l Inst for Applied Systems Analysis Fiona Harvey, environmental correspondent John Scott, technical director Philip Wolf, chief executive, Renewable Energy Assoc Peter Waller, head of energy industries and technologies Hanns-Joachim Neef, Juelich Research Centre

34. Research Supervisory Board Advisory Board Directorate Research Committee Capacity Building Knowledge Exchange Research coordination and integration Energy demand Energy supply Energy and Environment Energy systems TPA

35. Research Challenges for Sustainable Energy de-carbonisation of electricity renewables carbon capture and storage built environment existing buildings new build vehicle efficiency spatial planning and transport transport sector improved efficiency biofuels new vectors – hybridisation, electric, hydrogen changing patterns of transport behaviour

36. Research Challenges for this Workshop reducing the carbon footprint of existing housing low-zero carbon new build in the housing and commercial sectors building sustainability into new development through spatial planning, transport requirements the role of renewables (solar thermal, heat pumps, bio-energy, PV) at the household and community level engaging the public in climate change action the respective roles of utilities, local authorities and housing associations

37. UK Energy Research Centre www.ukerc.ac.uk