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Understanding Current Market Conditions and Strategic Responses

In this comprehensive analysis, Dr. Gary J. Harloff from Harloff Capital Management discusses the evolving market conditions as of November 2006. Key economic indicators reveal a slowdown in GDP growth, concerns about recession due to an inverted yield curve, and fluctuating consumer spending. The presentation offers insights into investment strategies amidst these challenges, focusing on sectors like energy and small-cap stocks. Dr. Harloff emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation and provides free resources for individuals and businesses looking to navigate a dynamic financial landscape.

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Understanding Current Market Conditions and Strategic Responses

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  1. Current Market Conditions & How to React to ThemAAII Cleveland, Oh, 11-8-2006 Dr. Gary J. Harloff, Ph.D. Harloff Capital Management, Money Management 815 Crocker Road, Suite D-10, Westlake, Oh 44145 www.harloffcapital.com, 440-871-7278

  2. Harloff Capital, Harloff Inc. • Money management strategies - individuals & businesses. Fee-based no commissions. • Continuous Asset Allocation • At AAII WSFPG 8-28-06, called 7-06 NDX low; NDX up 8.5% 8-28 to 11-3 • New original models, not available on Wall St. or Main St., research since 1970

  3. What forces are acting on economy and stock market? • 2006 GDP growth slowed from 5 to 1.6%/year, >0 • Fed raised Fed funds rate to 5.25%, on hold now • 10 year notes at 4.72%, 30 year notes at 4.81% • Yield curve slightly inverted: recession worry • Large deficit spending: international investing in US long bonds push long rates down • GDP is 70% consumer spending: consumer housing weakening

  4. S&P500 P/E not expensive

  5. Vix- implied volatility of SP100 Affects markets like turbulence affects airplanes

  6. Where is the Rydex trading money investing? • Bear funds decreasing • Energy $ increasing • Big cap and Small cap $

  7. Harloff Newsletter indicates Small Cap beating Big Cap

  8. Harloff computer model results What is the current investment outlook? • 11 3 2006 TIKER nav HCM1 l-gn b/s last date • ProFunds INV:Ultra Sect PMPIX 42.24 3.45 15.95 B 10 5 2006 • Rydex INV:Precious Meta RYPMX 53.81 2.94 13.81 B 10 5 2006 • ProFunds INV:UltraSecto ENPIX 39.13 2.35 9.03 B 9 27 2006 • S. Africa EZA 102.98 2.31 11.75 B 9 27 2006 • ProFunds INV:UltraSecto WCPIX 18.96 1.98 21.07 B 8 25 2006 • ProFunds INV:Basic Mate BMPIX 43.41 1.80 9.04 B 9 18 2006 • Rydex INV:Energy Servic RYVIX 42.83 1.79 8.02 B 10 2 2006 • ProFunds INV:UltraSecto INPIX 83.90 1.74 25.49 B 8 2 2006 • Rydex INV:Energy/231 RYEIX 22.08 1.68 6.51 B 9 28 2006 • Brazil EWZ 42.90 1.65 12.57 B 9 19 2006 • Spain EWP 50.56 1.59 25.46 B 6 15 2006 • Scudder Latin America-S SLAFX 58.59 1.37 12.01 B 9 12 2006 • Rydex INV:Basic Materia RYBIX 36.20 1.20 9.33 B 7 31 2006 • emerging mk 50 ADRE 34.64 1.18 9.83 B 9 12 2006

  9. How can Harloff Capital help you? • Free investment talks to other groups • Free stuff on web www.harloffcapital.com • Free consultation to manage money • Harloff Inc. publishes a newsletter • 815 Crocker Road, Suite D-10 • Westlake, Oh 44145 • 440-871-7278

  10. Conclusions • Market may be in transition or may alternate between US index leaders and alternate (see below) • Energy, metals, materials, and emerging markets are alternate investment candidates now • NDX100 low July ‘06 • S&P500 P/E not expensive • Large investors coming back into market • US bull market not over

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