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Knowing Your Customers Better Through Load Research

Knowing Your Customers Better Through Load Research. Presented By: Lawrence M. Strawn Senior Retail Pricing Coordinator Orlando Utilities Commission September 21, 2004. Agenda. Background Define load research Getting started Meter sample selection Uses of data.

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Knowing Your Customers Better Through Load Research

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  1. Knowing Your Customers Better Through Load Research Presented By: Lawrence M. Strawn Senior Retail Pricing Coordinator Orlando Utilities Commission September 21, 2004

  2. Agenda • Background • Define load research • Getting started • Meter sample selection • Uses of data

  3. Orlando Utilities Commission • Located in Orlando, Florida • OUC provides electric, water and chilled water to Orlando, St Cloud and parts of unincorporated Orange and Osceola Counties. • OUC net generating capability is 1,285 MW. • The peak demand for FY2003 was 1,019 MW Winter and 969 MW Summer

  4. Orlando Utilities Commission • The State of Florida is regulated • OUC provides fully bundled service (generation, transmission and distribution) • OUC electric customers: • Residential 158,000 (86%) • Commercial 25,000 (14%) • Total 183,000 • OUC does not have a large industrial load

  5. Load Research • The process of gathering, verifying, and aggregating interval meter data to determine the behavior and timing of consumer demand.

  6. Getting Started • Determine your objective • Metering equipment • Hardware required • Software required • Required resources • Determine meter sample selection • Capital and ongoing costs

  7. OUC’s Load Research Objective • Gain a better understanding of customer and customer class usage characteristics. • Understand the costs associated with servicing varying usage characteristics. • Develop rate strategies that send the appropriate rate signals to customers. • Have necessary information available to develop innovative rates. • Seasonal time of use rates. • Curtailable rates. • Photovoltaic rates.

  8. Sample Residential Shape

  9. Sample Commercial Shape

  10. Sample Load Shapes

  11. Metering Equipment Alpha solid state meter with load profile capability on circuit board. An internal modem is preferred. OUC’s meter alliance provider is Elster Electricity, LLC.

  12. Hardware Required Handheld Itron Laptop Computer Phone Line to Meter And / or And / or Server

  13. Hardware Required

  14. OUC is using: Premier Plus 4 MV90 Pervasive for MV90 Other products available Stark Datamatic Software is required to: Download Verify Store Organize Display Software Required

  15. Required Resources Information Technology Forecasting Billing

  16. Required Resources Meter Readers collect the interval load data using handheld Itrons. It takes approximately 3 - 5 minutes per meter to download the data Information Technology Forecasting Billing

  17. Required Resources Meter Operations collects the raw data, verifies it, and ensures it is stored correctly in MV90. Information Technology Forecasting Billing

  18. Required Resources Information Technology provides hardware and software support Information Technology Forecasting Billing

  19. Required Resources Commercial Account Reps use the data when working with customers to 1) ensure they are on the correct rate or 2) help them better understand their operations. Information Technology Forecasting Billing

  20. Required Resources Retail Pricing Coordinators use the data for the Cost of Service and Rate Design. Information Technology Forecasting Billing

  21. Required Resources Commercial Energy Auditors use the data to help customers understand how their usage affects their monthly bill Information Technology Forecasting Billing

  22. Required Resources Forecasting uses the data to prepare the sales forecast Information Technology Forecasting Billing

  23. Meter Sample Selection

  24. Meter Sample Selection • Review your load research objective. • Assess what data you already have. • Are there small customer classes or groups of meters you can gather 100% (census)? • Which customer classes are too large to census and must be sampled?

  25. Number of Meters by Rate Class

  26. Number of Meters by Rate Class Census Sample

  27. Determining Sample Size n = Sample Size Z = Level of Significance (1.960 for 95% confidence, 1.645 for 90%) σ = Population Standard Deviation E = Acceptable Amount of Sampling Error

  28. Determining Sample Size n = Sample Size Z = Level of Significance (1.960 for 95% confidence, 1.645 for 90%) σ = Population Standard Deviation E = Acceptable Amount of Sampling Error

  29. Population Standard Deviation • Standard deviation (σ) of what? • Kilowatt hours. • Load factors. • Average market value per MWh. • Market Price Vector • Florida Municipal Power Pool (FMPP) clearing house price vector • Calculated the σ of the average market value per MWh for 100 GSD2 secondary meters ($3.77).

  30. Determining Sample Size n = Sample Size Z = Level of Significance (1.960 for 95% confidence, 1.645 for 90%) σ = Population Standard Deviation E = Acceptable Amount of Sampling Error

  31. Determining Sample Size n = Sample Size Z = Level of Significance (1.960 for 95% confidence, 1.645 for 90%) σ = Population Standard Deviation E = Acceptable Amount of Sampling Error

  32. Determining Sample Size By randomly sampling 55 meters within a customer class, OUC can be 95 percent certain that the sample’s market value per MWh will represent the population’s market value within plus or minus $1.00/MWh.

  33. Uses of Data Calculating Allocation Factors to Use in the Cost of Service and Rate Design

  34. Step 1: Calculate Customer Class Shapes

  35. Step 2: Scale to Forecast

  36. Step 3: Derive Residential/GSND Class Shape Res/GSND Line loss calculations must be included

  37. Step 4: Verify Shape of Res/GSND Compare average market value per MWh of calculated shape to that of sample shape. The two market values should be within $1.00 per MWh.

  38. Step 5: Compute Allocation Factors • Monthly coincident peak (12CP) • Non-coincident peak (NCP) • Average and excess demands • Average market value per MWh • By class • By time period within class

  39. Sample Load Shapes * Florida Municipal Power Pool (FMPP) Clearing House Price Vector

  40. Sample Load Shapes $39.85/MWh $39.00/MWh * Florida Municipal Power Pool (FMPP) Generation Clearing House Price Vector

  41. Time of Use Rates(Summer) * Florida Municipal Power Pool (FMPP) Clearing House Price Vector

  42. Time of Use Rates(Summer)

  43. Time of Use Rates(Summer)

  44. Other Uses of Load Research Data • OUConsumption Online • Enables customers to understand their cost causation • Totalize kW on contiguous site • Look at cost for an individual customer • Energy conservation programs

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