Tourism, Economic Crisis, and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities

1. Tourism, economic crisis and climate change: Challenges and opportunities Sustainability, Climate Change and Tourism: Challenges posed by the global economic crisis Bournemouth University, 25 November 2009 Luigi Cabrini Director, Sustainable Development of Tourism World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org

2. Contents • Global crisis and tourism • Tourism in the Green Economy • The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism • Mitigation strategies

3. International Tourism 2009 – full year forecast Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

4. Outbound: declining expenditure abroad in 2009 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

5. Demand picking up? 2008 2009 Easter Holiday (April) +2% Easter Holiday (March) +6% -1% -7% Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

6. International Tourism 2010 forecast 2010 forecast: 1% to 3% Change (%) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

7. UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: regaining confidence

8. Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast World 1.6 bn 1.0 bn 922 mn • T2020V average annual growth (aag) rate projected of 4.1% a year • 2006: +6.1% • 2007: +6.1% • 2008: +2.0% • actual aag in period 1995-2008 has been 4.3% a year 534 mn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

9. Tourism, economy and external shocks 7% a year between 2004 and 2007 2009: -1.1% 2010: 3.1% 2011-2014: 4% Echo of second oil crisis / Falklands and Israel-Lebanon conflicts Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia Iraq, SARS Asian Financial Crisis Kosovo 11S

10. Crisis: time for change, time of chances • Structural underlying weaknesses and threats are more visible: • Sustainability issues • Aging stock and need to regeneration • Energy dependence • Climate change adaptation and mitigation • Competitiveness, human resources and cost structure • Low occupancy of accommodation and strong seasonality • Need for product development and diversification • Insufficient market differentiation • Need for more and more effective marketing and promotion • Cooperation and coordination

11. Response to the Crisis - Roadmap for recovery

12. Roadmap for recovery Resilience • Focus on job retention and sector support • Understand the market and respond rapidly • Boost partnership and ´Coopetition` • Advance innovation and technology • Strengthen regional and interregional support

13. Roadmap for recovery Stimulus • Create new jobs – particularly in SME’s • Mainstream tourism in stimulus and infrastructure programs • Review tax and visa barriers to growth • Improve tourism promotion and capitalize on major events • Include tourism in aid for trade and development support

14. Roadmap for recovery Green Economy • Develop Green Jobs and Skills Training • Respond Effectively to Climate Change • Profile Tourism & Travel in all Green Economy Strategies • Encourage Green Travel Infrastructure Investment • Promote a Green Travel Culture in Suppliers, Consumers & Communities

15. Tourism in the Green Economy

16. Forthcoming Study on Tourism for the Green Economy Report • UNWTO/UNEP cooperative effort • It is one of the 11 economic sectors to be included in the GER • Relevant messages: • To GOVERNMENTS: where, how and under what conditions investments in sustainable tourism bring faster economic recovery, create high quality jobs and reduce poverty while also improving environmental outcomes. • To BUSINESSES: how and under what conditions such investments are at least as profitable as other investments. • To SHAREHOLDERS: how and under what conditions green investments in sustainable tourism are likely to yield more stable/secure and even higher returns.

17. Structure of the Study • Introduction • Challenges and opportunities for the tourism sector: • The global economic crisis and its effects on tourism • Climate change and tourism • Tourism and Poverty alleviation • Tourism and protected areas • State of Investment • Scenarios of increased investment • Financing • Enabling Conditions • Conclusions and Main Recommendations

18. Green Economy Report • INVESTMENT: • Current Status of global investment in sustainable tourism • What additional level of investment is required? • By Whom? Why? • ENABLING CONDITIONS: • Financing for sustainable tourism • Barriers to tourism approaches and how to overcome them • Other enabling conditions (trade policy, market access, standards, etc) ECONOMY EFFECTS OF INCREASED INVESTMENTS ON TOURISM: Output Jobs Livelihood Health Poverty reduction Environment

19. The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism

20. Tourism Climate change • With its close connections to the environment and climate itself, tourism is considered to be a highly climate-sensitive sector. • Climate change is not a remote future event for tourism, as the varied impacts are becoming evident at destinations. • Changing climate patterns might alter major tourism flows. • Least developed countries and small island developing states might be particularly affected. • Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector are expected to steadily intensify. • At the same time, the tourism sector is a contributor to climate change; GHG emissions from transport and accommodation.

21. Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’ Regional Knowledge Gaps

22. 2007 • 2nd International Conference in Davos • Ministerial Summit in London • UNWTO General Assembly in Cartagena • UN Climate Change Summit Bali • 2008 • Seminar in Oxford • Ministerial Meeting in London • Conference in Egypt • Workshop in Colombia • UN Climate Conference in Poznan • 2009 • Cagliariworkshop for Mediterranean • World Climate Conference-3 in Geneva • Gothenburg Symposium • UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen • 2003 • First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Djerba The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism • 2015 • Millennium Development Goals

23. 2009 Copenhagen MDG 2020 2050 From Davos to Bali Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism sector Low carbon travel T&T in the Green Economy CC Adaptation & Mitigation CC and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges CC & Tourism. Djerba

24. Climate is a key tourism resource but tourism is also a contributor to climate change (5%) Tourism is a vital economic factor and contributor to the MGD Adopt urgent policies to encourage sustainable development: economic, social, environmental and climate change responsiveness How to do it? Mitigate emissions (transport and accommodation) Adapt businesses and destinations to changing climate conditions New technology Help poorer regions adapting Davos Declaration

25. Davos Declaration • Governments • International Framework • Partnerships • Educate - Train - Monitor • Consumers • Reduce Footprint • Choose Carbon Clean • Link to Conservation • Research/Media Nets • Intensify Research • Mainstream Education • Promote Responsible • Travel • Industry/Destinations • Clean Energy • Design/Product • Tell Customers

26. Tourism community will participate in the common effort led by the United Nations. Tourism is ready to take up its share of the burden in proportion with its contribution to climate change. However, do not unfairly target tourism! It is an activity as respectable as others, which satisfies needs that are just as essential. Tourism generates wealth, creates jobs and contributes to the alleviation of poverty. Poor countries will be doubly affected if we deprive them of the economic contribution of tourism. UNWTO’s Message at Bali Climate Summit

27. The Davos Process has a shared ownership Its value resides in: Promoting, collecting and disseminate the tourism initiatives on climate change Ensuring cooperation and coherence Providing added value and visibility to efforts made Representing a wide range of public and private stakeholders Place tourism in the “climate change map” The Davos Process

28. The Davos process is nurtured by a variety of initiatives : Energy Efficiency for the Tourism Industry (EETI) project The Caribsave partnership to address climate change impacts in the Caribbean The Maldives project on adaptation to Climate Change WTTC initiative  “ Leading the Challenge on Climate Change” WEF report  “ Towards a low carbon travel and tourism sector” ETC’s San Marino workshop and European NTO’s engagement  International Task Force on Sustainable Tourism. The Marrakech process The Global Sustainable Tourism Criteria The Davos Process

29. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Frameworks, Tools and Practices • International seminar, Oxford, United Kingdom, 7-10 April 2008 • Capacity building and pragmatic adaptation and mitigation techniques and methods for developing countries and small island states • Organised and coordinated by UNEP, Oxford University (OUCE), UNWTO and WMO • Some 30 high level tourism and environment officials from developing countries and Small Island developing states participated in the Seminar. • This Report provides frameworks, tools and best practices for the tourism sector WMO

30. Excellence in Energy for the Tourism Industry Accommodation sector: SME hotels • Objectives • Increase use of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies (EE & RET) by SME hotels in the European Union • Strengthen hotel sector networks (e.g., National hotel associations, destination authorities, energy management agencies) for promotion of EE & RET in hotels • Build better links between users in the hotel sector and EE & RET suppliers and manufacturers • Stimulate innovation by manufacturers and suppliers of EE & RET to meet the needs of SME hotels • Sensitise National and Local Authorities on adoption of suitable supporting measures, policies and incentives to encourage use of EE & RET by SME hotels Implemented by UNWTO in cooperation withUNEP-DTIE, International Hotel and Restaurant Association (IH&RA), European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME) Under negotiation with European Commission / EACI

31. Coastal Tourism in the Mediterranean: Adapting to Climate Change(Cagliari, Italy, 8 to 10 June 2009) • Designed for decision-makers and tourism experts • Strengthen the capacities of the tourism sector players in the Mediterranean countries to fill the knowledge gap on tourism adaptation strategies • Representatives from 16 Mediterranean countries • Support the integration of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the national tourism development plans and strategies. • Use of planning tools in coastal zones through exercises on Scenario Planning and Strategic Planning for Sustainable Tourism Development • Field visit to southwest Sardinia: • Rehabilitation of a natural dune system • Example of the a resort that has implemented environmental management of the structure and eco-design • Rehabilitation of a lighthouse through eco-architecture

32. Travel and Tourism in the Green Economy Symposium(14 -15 September 2009, Gothenburg) • Organized by the UNWTO, ETC, UNEP and the Swedish Government. • Aimed at exploring the links between the Green Economy Initiative and the Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism. • Discussion panels: • Tourism going climate neutral • The travel industry, innovation and new technologies • Destinations: A sustainable approach • Towards a Green Economy – NTO challenges and opportunities • Focus on how sustainable tourism can contribute to the transformation to the Green Economy.

33. Mitigation strategies

34. Global Tourism Emissions in 2005: CO2 Only Transportation of Tourists = 75% of Sector Emissions * - does not include non-CO2 emissions and impact on climate

35. ‘Business as Usual’ Projection of Future CO2 Emissions from Tourism* 53% 15% 24% 43% 26% 21% 4% 7% * Excluding same-day visitors

36. 3500 3000 2500 2000 Mt CO2 1500 1000 500 0 Baseline ‘Business as Technical Modal- Combined Usual‘ Efficiency Shift/Length of Stay Future CO2 Emissions from Global Tourism: Scenarios of Mitigation Potential in 2035 -36% -43% -68% 2005* 2035* 2035 Mitigation Scenarios * Excludes same-day tourists

37. Reducing energy use / Conservation: changing transport behaviour (e.g. shift to rail and coach instead of car and aircraft, choosing closer destinations), changing management practices (e.g. videoconferencing for business tourism) Improving energy efficiency: use technology to carrying out the same operation with a lower energy input Use of renewable or carbon-neutral energy: substitute fossil fuels with energy sources that are not finite and cause lower emissions, such as biomass, hydro, wind, and solar energy Mitigation options for the Tourism Sector

38. MITIGATION MEASURESLand Transport - Cars contribute more than 80% emission of the land transport (but only 15%-20% for tourism purpose) - Key emissions abatement options for car transport: • Development of more efficient vehicles. • Abatement potential up to 30% of emissions • Adoption of cleaner fuels. • Develop a very low emissions car powered by electricity, fuel cells or hydrogen • Promoting changes to consumer behaviour reduction. • Up to 15% of carbon emissions could be reduced Source: World Economic Forum Study: Towards a Low Carbon Travel & Tourism Sector

39. MITIGATION MEASURESAir Transport • Acceleration of fleet renewal with more fuel efficient planes. • More than 11% of the current world fleet are older than 25 years. • Possible abatement potential of CO2 saving: >7% • Reduce infrastructure inefficiencies in airspace management. • Up to 12% of CO2 emissions can be reduced • R&D innovation to develop new long-term technology which could further reduce emissions • Airframe Technologies • Engine Technologies • Alternative Fuels

40. MITIGATION MEASURESWater Transport (Cruise ships) • Operation & technical measures to reduce energy use • Route optimization • Cruise ship energy efficiency improvement • Machine condition • Change of energy source to power cruise lines Each measure has a carbon abatement potential around 7%. However this is not cumulative due to interdependencies

41. MITIGATION MEASURESAccommodation • Operational & technical measures to reduce energy use • Insulation • Building design for new buildings • Building Energy Management System • Change in room temperature • Change in energy source • Solar • Biomass / Bio-fuel • Combined heat Power • Change in consumer behaviour • Increased energy awareness: • Incentives for customers: Zion National Park Visitor Centre Each measure has a carbon abatement potential around 7%. However this is not cumulative due to interdependencies

42. Tourism sector (mainly its transport and accommodation subsectors) should incorporate in their operations efficient energy use and management innovations to mitigate their GHG. Tourism companies to design mid and long term plans with meaningful targets, realistic and credible. Tourism’s economic, social and development benefits need to be communicated and positively perceived, so as not to penalize tourism in comparison with other sectors. Tourism stakeholders should partner rather than compete. Preparing for Copenhagen and beyond

43. Awareness raising and information for the tourism sector on the impacts of climate change. Capacity building for adaptation at destinations. Analyse and apply mitigation measures along the supply chain of the tourism sector. Contribute to reach the objectives of reducing GHG emissions generated by the sector, in the framework of the collaborative action of the United Nations. Continue the investigation on impacts, adaptation and mitigation aiming to improve the specific knowledge and develop methods to tackle the complex challenges related to climate change. The Way Forward

44. Stabilize by 2050 • Start Now 2020 targets • Common but differentiated 2050 2020 2015 • Reward Innovation • Transfer Technology • Boost Investment • Adapt / Mitigate • Technology / Finance • Conservation 2012 2009 • Carbon Price • Tax • Incentivise • Regulate

45. Thank you www.unwto.org/sdt