Climate change, Agrobiodiversity and livelihoods in Indian Himalaya

1. Climate change, Agrobiodiversity and livelihoods in Indian Himalaya • Himalaya: biodiversity hotspot and global environmental significance • Climate change: scientific and farmers’ worldviews • Strengths, weaknesses and scope of building on indigenous agricultural systems

3. Agricultural systems: the diversity

5. Policy changes over time • 1894 – Forest Policy: serve the agricultural interests more directly than at present • 1952: The solution to food problem primarily by intensive cultivation and not by weakening the very basis of national existence by encroaching upon forests • 1988: Discourage diversion of productive agricultural lands to forestry in view of the need for increased food production • 1992: National Policy Statement on Environment and Development • 2003-2006: Biodiversity conservation and climate change: Biodiversity Action Plan, Biodiversity Act, National Communication to UNFCC • 2008- Tribal (Forest Rights) Bill, Biodiversity Management at Village Level, Decentralization of Authority, Climate change action plan

6. Climate change trends: scientific worldview • Global warming : 1.0 to 7.5 deg C • India: 0.4 to 2 deg C per 100 years; increase in max temp • Contrasting trends from different models in Greater Trans Himalaya • Warming based on models and long term climate data analysis – no warming from dendrochronology • -6-8% in rainfall in north-east and +10-12% in west • +2 deg C and +7% precipitation: the ‘best guess’ • Sporadic extreme events ??? Uncertainty/low precison of predictions/complexity of climate change; urgent global corrective strategies and policies

7. Climate change trends: farmers’ worldview • Feel warming but fail to quantify rates: decline in area and duration of snow • Good climate: low rainfall in March-May, peak monsoon in July-August, moderate rainfall/heavy snowfall in December-January, absence of cloud bursts, with uncertainty/unpredictability of the date of onset of monsoon and high rainfall events, drought/flood years – changes in the trend • High elevation villages more prone to abnormally high precipitation, mid elevation villages to low precipitation and foot hill villages to both types of events • Bad climate in both cropping seasons in a year very rare Living with uncertainty: autonomous rather planned adaptations

8. Associated (natural ecosystems) and planned biodiversity (crops) • Protection of agricultural land and dwellings from run-off and wildlife • Recharge of springs (drinking water) and streams (irrigation water) • Availability of livestock feed and FYM • Availability of NTFPs crucial for livelihood • Cultural values

10. Spatio-temporal variation in climate • North-eastern India: 2007 flood year and 2008 drought year • Central Himalaya: 2007 - low rainfall in monsoon crop season and high rainfall in winter season; 2008 – high rainfall in monsoon crop season and low rainfall in winter crop seaon

11. SOC: higher in drought year: 4 % in KDC, 10-15% in NOR, LEI, SAN, TOL, MAN, 16-18% in DRU, KHU

14. Crop diversity by stress tolerance and economic value

15. Managing the risks: village landscape scale

16. Farmers’ observations about global warming induced changes • Feasibility of potato and cauliflower cultivation in higher elevations • Emergence of defoliators of Amaranths in higher elevations • Early flowering and maturity of winter crops • Decline in apple/other temperate fruit yields • Early flowering of Rhododendron arboreum • Early fruit ripening in Prunus cerasoides • Increase in dominance of Bauhinia vahlii twining around Pinus roxburghii • Wild species not as much sensitive to climatic variability as domesticated species

17. Changes in agrobiodiversity and management practices: socio-economic driving factors and implications

18. Soil loss and run-off (n = 5 plots) from rainy season crops grown in Pranmati watershed, central Himalaya, India.

19. Homegardens are richer in SOC (+) compared to forests Basal area of well management agroforestry systems comparable to forests

20. Yield of winter season crops grown under unlopped and 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% lopping of agroforestry trees in village Banswara, India. LSD (P=0.05) between means of a crop grown under different lopping regimes are given as vertical lines.

23. A high degree of variability – by season, within and between site – differences in belowground community not as marked as in the aboveground community Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-monsoon Annual average

24. New crops – Medicinal Species • Growth of Aconitum spp not limited by low CO2-low temperature conditions • Warming stimulated growth of Allium stracheyi, Arnebia benthamii and Dactylorrhiza hatagirea and depressed growth of Angelica glauca and Rheum emodi, the coexisting alpine species • Upward movements of vegetation belts: temperature pull, earth surface processes, edaphic controls and species attributes

25. Socio-cultural capital favoring sustainability • Community pressure for proper management of agricultural land with local labour, village level food self-sufficiency and exchange of seeds without any monetary consideration • Catastrophes if livelihood based on timber trade • Income from non-timber forest products permissible only to weaker sections but subsistence uses to all • Limits to forest resource utilization and access to groups of families and not individuals • Sacred forests around hill tops and streams • Accommodating people suffering from natural hazards and disasters

26. Identify changes and trace their driving factors (climate change)

27. For sustainability through cooperation and collaboration • Consistent and unambiguous definitions for effective communication, comparisons and synthesis • Unifying, standard and globally agreed methodology • Critical and threshold values

28. Policy Knowledge Behaviour Capacity building